Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

Add Carlos Rodon of White Sox Now | Confusion Reigns with Brewers

Add Carlos Rodon of White Sox Now | Confusion Reigns with Brewers
RotoExperts Staff June 12, 2018 9:35PM EDT

Detailed Fantasy observations from around the league

As a Fantasy community, we love prospects. There’s the hope and hype that they will be the next big thing. But there’s a reason that it’s typically recommended that you put offers out there to sell a prospect on the day they get called up. On that day, whatever hype has been associated with them, and the expectations that the industry has, will be at an all-time high.

See, once a prospect debuts, the hype fades, and the reality sets in. That reality is that baseball is really hard, and it typically takes time for a player to flourish.

As an owner, you should look for the players that struggle early on, be it their opening week, month, season or following year. These are known as post-hype players.

A few of those players heading into this year were Sean Newcomb and Blake Snell. They are two left-handed pitchers with exceptionally high ceilings, but failed to live up to their billing as top prospects early in their careers.

Fast-forward to this year, and both are Top 25 pitchers (ninth for Snell, 23rd for Newcomb) in Yahoo points systems. The knock on both were that the walks hurt them from reaching the next level as pitchers, and their WHIP hurt Fantasy owners. However, both have really improved in the area – Snell much more than Newcomb – allowing them to breakout this year, after being tossed to the side by a lot of the community for failing to produce early.

There’s another pitcher that just returned from the disabled list that has a lot of similarities to Snell and Newcomb, and that’s Carlos Rodon of the Chicago White Sox.

Similar to Snell and Newcomb, Rodon is a young, left-handed pitcher who has had big expectations attached to his name, but he’s failed to live up to them after being fast-tracked through the minor-league system. Rodon, too, has struggled with control, which has stopped him from making the leap to Fantasy ace.

He made his season debut over the weekend against the Boston Red Sox, and he impressed as he walked two, struck out seven and allowed two earned runs in five innings.

Rodon’s walk rate (4.02) last year was similar to Snell’s (4.11) and lower than Newcomb’s (5.13), but can he limit the free passes to the same extent of either Snell (2.73) or Newcomb (4.26) have this year?

Well, Rodon’s walk rate was up last year from his 2.95 mark in 2016, but he showed some adjustments down the stretch.

Add Carlos Rodon of White Sox Now | Confusion Reigns with Brewers

 

Like Rodon, Snell and Newcomb hovered around or just above a strikeout per inning last year, but it was the high walk rate that contributed to their 4-plus ERA. Newcomb and Snell have made the adjustments with their free passes, allowing their ERAs to dip below 3.00 on the season.

I’m not saying Rodon will finish as a Top 25 pitcher, but he has the potential to be that and more. He could do exactly what Snell has this year. He’s a 25-year-old pitcher (younger than Snell), who has legitimate ace upside and is available in 68 percent of Yahoo leagues. Add him now.

A Bad Odor

For years, it’s been a bad pun when discussing Rougned Odor, but the past two years, his play really has been bad … and that’s being nice.

Odor has been unable to improve on his numbers from last year since returning from the disabled list, as he has just one home run in 151 plate appearances and nine walks. That, of course, goes along with his 25.2 K/9, which is actually down 5.6 percent from last year. However, he’s somehow hitting even more infield flyballs (17.9 IFFB%) than he was last year (15.5 IFFB%).

If he doesn’t improve soon, he might be the odd man out for the Rangers.

See, Elvis Andrus has started his rehab assignment, and though he’s teased us before, Jurickson Profar is finally performing at an OK level in the big leagues. He’s only hitting .235, but he’s walking more than Odor, striking out less and has shown more power and speed than Odor, who had the quietest 30/15 season maybe ever last year.

For those hoping that Odor would rebound and regain his value in redraft or dynasty leagues (guilty as charged), this is a pivotal week for him to maintain his spot in the Rangers’ lineup.

Cold Brew

Entering the season, there were too many cooks in the Brewers kitchen, as the acquisitions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain made life difficult for Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Eric Thames owners. Things like this in baseball have a way of working themselves out, and that’s what we thought we saw when Thames went on the disabled list earlier this season.

Cain and Yelich have been good, and Braun, when healthy, has been fine, but a shell of his former self. Santana has, as predicted by many, regressed in a big way from last season, where everything just seemed to fall right for him. With Thames being activated Monday, everything should be fine now, right?

Well, Santana has lost his job, but enter Jesus Aguilar to make things complicated once again. Aguilar’s play has made the Brewers not even notice that Thames was injured, as he’s hitting .290 with 11 home runs, 37 RBIs and has a 140 wRC+.

The situation is one that’s definitely worth monitoring in Milwaukee. On paper, the easiest suggestion is to have Cain in center, Yelich in left, Braun in right and then platoon Thames and Aguilar against righties and lefties, respectively. But with the way that Aguilar is playing overall (.286 average, .362 wOBA against righties), the Brewers are going to find a way to get his bat into the lineup on most days.

It’s a great problem to have for the Brewers, but for Fantasy owners, it’s going to cause more off days for Cain, Yelich, Braun and Thames. Welcome to the same problem from the beginning of the season. This time, there’s just a new cast of characters.

Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…