This week, Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is the host of the U.S. Open. The last time Shinnecock played host to the U.S. Open was in 2004 when Retief Goosen won by two strokes over Phil Mickelson ($8,600). The course is a Par 70 stretching over 7,400 yards. With not much course history to hone in on this week, here are some key stats to look at:
U.S. Open Key Statistics
- SG: Off-the-tee (SG: OTT)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
- Bogey Avoidance
Coming off his second win of the season, Dustin Johnson leads the way this week, coming in at $11,700. With so many long Par 4’s at Shinnecock Hills, Johnsons length off of the tee will be on full display. He currently ranks first in SG: OTT, T20 in GIR, and second in bogey avoidance. Before missing the cut last year at the U.S. Open, Johnson had three consecutive top five finishes (1, T2, T4). Riding his form from last week’s victory at the St. Jude Classic makes all the sense in the world, but the price is fairly steep. Johnson comes in with the highest projected ownership on DailyRoto at 25.43%. They also give him the best chance to win by a large margin (8.23%) compared to the field. Rostering Johnson leaves you an average of $7,660 for the remaining five spots. He is the favorite for a reason, but is more of a cash game play than a tournament play.
Right behind the favorite, Dustin Johnson ($11,700), is Rory McIlroy ($11,500), Justin Thomas ($11,000), Jordan Spieth ($10,800), Jason Day ($10,500), and Rickie Fowler ($10,200). Outside of Johnson in this range above $10k, DailyRoto’s Finish Probabilities give McIlroy and Day the next best odds to win, and to make the cut. While they do rate out fairly well, both can be completely faded. McIlroy’s price is much too high in this field, just $200 cheaper than Johnson, and Day is projected to be the seventh highest owned player on DailyRoto’s Projections and is unappealing. Thomas is projected to be the fourth highest owned player and arguably has the most stable floor in this range. He just fell to No. two in the OWGR and will be out to prove why he should be at the top. Thomas has not finished outside of the Top 25 thus far in 2018. Spieth and Fowler will both be overlooked in this upper tier as they have not been all that impressive this season. Since their high finishes at The Masters back in April, they have not shown up on many other leaderboards. Spieth and Fowler carry the two lowest projected ownerships on DailyRoto and can make for a very interesting pairing in the Millionaire Maker.
Stenson Checks All the Boxes
In this next tier down, Henrik Stenson ($8,800) should be a staple in your cash game lineups. DailyRoto rates out Stenson as the third best value on DraftKings, and their Finish Probability model gives him 1 4.26% chance to win. This win probability is the third best and is higher than anyone priced under $11,500. Stenson is having somewhat of a quiet season, but is rattling off top finishes every week. He has made six straight cuts, all of which have resulted in T26 or better. Three of his last six cuts made have been inside the Top 10. All of the key stats line up as well. Stenson is 13th in SG: OTT, first in GIR, and first in Bogey Avoidance. He also leads the tour in Hit Fairway Percentage. It doesn’t get much better than that. His ownership projection on DailyRoto is just 14.28% in a price range that should not garner much exposure. At $8,800, Stenson allows you some flexibility with your lineup and does not need a high finish to return value. He is in play in any format.
Other Options: Jon Rahm ($9,500), and Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900).
Molinari Rides Hot Streak Back into the U.S.
Francesco Molinari ($7,600) is another play that makes sense at Shinnecock. Golf fans who don’t pay much attention to the European Tour might not know where Molinari’s game is at right now. They will remember him missing the cut at The Players Championship last month, but probably don’t realize that he won the BMW PGA Championship, and followed that up with a solo second place finish at the Italian Open. These are two very good fields that Molinari excelled in and he is riding this confidence into the U.S. Open this week. DailyRoto always shows Molinari some love as he is their fifth best value and has the best chance to win, and make the cut than anybody priced $7,600 or below. With an ownership projection of just 12.32%, Molinari can be played in cash games, or tournaments.
Other Options: Alex Noren ($7,900), Patrick Cantlay ($7,700), and Tony Finau ($7,500).
$7k and Below
Adam Hadwin is coming in at a discount this week, costing just $7,000. Though he has not had a Top 10 since early March, Hadwin has not missed a cut all season. His consistency from week to week gives him a nice floor on DK and a made cut at Shinnecock would return value. More suited for cash games.
Byeong Hun An ($6,900) has been playing very well. Before his missed cut at St. Jude last week, An had made seven straight cuts worldwide. His playoff loss to Bryson DeChambeau at the Memorial was his highest finish of the season. An ranks 10th in SG: OTT, and 30th in Bogey Avoidance. Nice Millionaire Maker Play.
Gary Woodland ($6,800) seems to always pop up on the key statistics. This season, he is this in SG: OTT, and fifth in GIR. Woodland comes in at a nice discount due to his recent form. He had missed four straight cuts before finishing T23 at the Memorial. He is projected to be under 5% owned and allows you the flexibility to play who you want at the top.
Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,700) is playing in his first U.S. Open since 2013. Olesen is coming off a win at the Italian Open and making his 2018 PGA debut this week at Shinnecock Hills. Though he is much more popular on the European Tour, Olsen has shown flashes of what he can do. His last PGA Tour event he played was the WGC- HSBC Champions in October of 2017 where he finished T31. DailyRoto projects Olesen to be less than 3% owned, making him worth a look in the Millionaire Maker.
Millionaire Maker Plays
Ownership Projections from DailyRoto.com
Daniel Berger ($7,600) – 1.35% Projected Ownership
Will have no exposure after last week’s letdown. Lowest projected ownership of anyone priced above $7,600.
Kevin Chappell ($7,200) – 3.17% Projected Ownership
Another player with a poor outing last week. Length off the tee can play to his advantage
Bill Haas ($7,100) – 0.41% Projected Ownership
One of the few who played Shinnecock in 2004, finishing T40. Made his last two cuts
Russell Knox ($6,800) – 1.24% Projected Ownership
Seventh in GIR, and 20th in Bogey Avoidance this season.