Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

Buy Low On Colts T.Y. Hilton, Sell On Bears Jordan Howard

Buy Low On Colts T.Y. Hilton, Sell On Bears Jordan Howard
George Kurtz November 6, 2018 11:17AM EDT

Your Prime Buy Low and Sell High Targets for Week 10

The trade deadline in your league is likely coming up within the next two weeks. My favorite type of format is some kind of keeper or dynasty league. I just enjoy the extra levels of strategy it imposes, especially at the trade deadline, because in these leagues you can usually deal next year’s draft picks. The big question then becomes, how do you go about trading those picks? Well, assuming your league is not brand new, you should have a history. You should be able to look up what draft picks were traded in prior seasons and the players they were traded for. This will give you an idea of what kind of pick you will have to give up. You will also need to figure out, is it a seller’s or a buyer’s market? The easy way to do this is just to look at the standings and figure out who is likely to trade in, who is likely to trade out, and who will probably stand pat. If there are more sellers than buyers, than the draft pick price should be lower and vice versa.

Remember, if you do believe there are more buyers than sellers, it’s best to strike early, even if you have to pay a premium price. As long as you truly believe a trade will put you over the top, then go for it. When it comes to making draft pick trades there is a saying that goes through my head. “Worry about this year, this year, and next year, next year.” I want to win now. I’ll figure out how to compete next season, next season and is there really that much of a difference in giving up a 2nd round pick instead of a 3rd? Not if that bump up in round gets you first place. One last piece of advice: When giving up draft picks, don’t forget to ask for picks in return. At the very least you should be able to get their last pick(s) as they won’t need them anyway due to the extra picks they received in the trade with you.

In this column we will take a quick look at three players who are buy lows, three that are sell highs, two that you’d like to deal but can’t get equal or much value for, and three you should hold.

Buy Low

  1. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, the Bucs are a dumpster fire. They don’t know who their franchise quarterback is. They don’t even know who their coach is, as one has to believe Dirk Koetter is as good as gone. Evans only had one catch on 10 targets Sunday. You might be able to get him cheaply from an owner who just wants to divest themselves from his situation.
  2. Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Even though Andrew Luck seems to be throwing TD pass after TD pass, Hilton has only 14 receptions in his last four games. Well Hilton has been bothered by a hamstring injury. Hopefully the bye week will have allowed him to completely recover from that injury and he will go back to being the dynamic player we have come to expect. Jack Doyle should also be on this list.
  3. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars: This may be your last chance to buy low on Fournette. He has missed five of the past six games due to a hamstring injury, but it finally looks like he has recovered and will play in Week 10. Fournette is practiced in full Monday and his price is only going to get higher as the days go by.

Sell High

  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fitzpatrick is not a good starting NFL QB, but he is a very good backup. Fantasy wise, he is a very good starting QB in his system. The problem is the Bucs will have to go back to Jameis Winston eventually. With another loss or two, the season will be lost and the only thing that will be left to determine is the fate of the head coach and Winston. The final judgment may already be in on Koetter, but the Bucs will need to know if they should pick up the $20-plus million owed on Winston’s contract next season.
  2. Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Williams would seem to be hot with four touchdowns in his last three games, but in those contests, he only has five other receptions and seven other targets. On the year he only has more than three receptions in a game once (4) and no more than five targets in a game. Once those TDs dry up, so does his Fantasy value.
  3. Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears: What I just wrote about Williams can also be written about Howard. Yes, he has four TDs in his las three games but has done little else since Week 1. Howard has only rushed for 70-plus yards once and seems to have ceded a lot of work to Tarik Cohen. Once again, it’s hard to rely on TDs week in and week out.

No Trade Value

  1. Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings: It may have been in a limited role, but Dalvin Cook returned Sunday and had a solid game with 89 yards rushing and four receptions for 20 yards. The Vikings are on bye this week and Cook should be back as the starting RB in Week 11. As well as Murray played, his days as the starting QB in Minnesota are over.
  2. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Ingram had a great outing in his first game back from suspension, but that does just seem to be because coach Sean Peyton wanted to make a statement and force defenses to account for him. Ingram is still a useful Fantasy RB, but you’re not going to get the return for him that you would’ve several week ago. This is Alvin Kamara’s team.

Hold

  1. Isaiah Crowell, New York Jets: The Jets offense is a bit of a mess and the run game hasn’t done much over the past three games. Still, all RBs who get quality work have value and Crowell is still the starting RB here even though the Jets activated Elijah McGuire prior to Sunday’s game. Maybe you don’t want to start Crowell this Sunday, but you’re not releasing him either.
  2. Sony Michel, New England Patriots: Michel may be annoying Fantasy owners. He never seems to be healthy and yeah, it’s frustrating. Still, this is a player who could return to the lineup next week and could lead you to a Fantasy championship. The Patriots run game looks good even without Michel as James White and Cordarrelle Patterson have been successful carrying the rock, but neither is as talented as Michel. Try and be patient here.
  3. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: Jones had a key fumble Sunday night that could cause him to lose some touches to Jamaal Williams once again. Jones is the better back and just seemed to get the starting job, so let’s hope head coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t punish Jones for that fumble. The Packers, especially after the trades they made last week, look like they’re playing for the future, so getting Jones back in there would be the prudent thing to do.

Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…