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2018 NFL Super Bowl Futures Betting

2018 NFL Super Bowl Futures Betting
Davis Mattek January 2, 2019 5:27PM EST

Super Bowl Futures Betting For The 2018 NFL Playoffs

The best way to stay invested in the 2018 NFL Playoffs is to have Super Bowl Futures bets. For those unfamiliar with the concept, a future bet is any bet made for some time in the future, as opposed to an immediate game being played. These bets are related to teams either playing in or winning the Super Bowl. The odds quoted in this article are from MyBookie.ag 

Exact Super Bowl Future Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears +1100

Generally speaking, the odds you will be receiving to get an exact Super Bowl matchup will not jibe with the actual probabilities. However, this specific matchup is one that really draws my interest. Most of the advanced football analytics research in 2018 has shown that high-powered offenses have large advantages over a majority of defenses. The two defenses that have shown a statistically significant ability to limit opponent scoring are the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. Chicago had the highest-rated defense by Football Outsiders DVOA in 2018 and was 25 percent better than league average. On the other side of that coin, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top overall offense by DVOA and were 35 percent better than league average. The Chiefs have the best offense in football and the Bears have the best defense while also possessing a creative coach and talented offensive playmakers. This Super Bowl Futures bet is a way to fade the outrageous odds for the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC while also juicing the odds that the Chiefs will make the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks +1400 NFC Champions

The line movement for the Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys game alerted me to the sleeper potential of this former Super Bowl winning team. The line opened at 2.5 and has now moved to Dallas only being favored by one point against Seattle. Several descriptive metrics from the 2018 season show that Seattle is likely a superior team to Dallas. They finished higher in offensive DVOA, gained more yards per play and had six more takeaways on defense. Seattle also has the advantage at the quarterback position, which generally comes more into play in postseason games. If and when Seattle does beat Dallas in this road playoff game (not assured), they would certainly be underdogs against the next two teams they would face; however, given that I expect them to beat Dallas and am trying to short the overwhelming odds for the Rams and Saints, I do like this as a bet. While Los Angeles and New Orleans are definitely better football teams than the Seahawks, Seattle has something most five seeds do not: an MVP-caliber quarterback.

New England Patriots To Win Super Bowl at +600

Stop me if you have heard this one before: the general public is counting out Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. The Patriots were still able to achieve a first-round bye in the AFC, but hearing people talk about them, you would think they were the sixth seed. New England still finished fifth in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA. Their defense is actually markedly better than last season when they finished 31st in defensive DVOA; they finished a league-average 16th this season. The defensive personnel is better, with the addition of Stephon Gilmore as a true shutdown corner. They have also already beaten their main conference rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, this season. In 2017, when the Patriots again made the Super Bowl, they got blown out by the Chiefs in their regular season meeting. Tom Brady certainly looks worse with his lowest adjusted yards per attempt since 2014. Getting the Patriots at a shorter price than three other NFL teams feels like a winning proposition.

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