Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

Next Gen Stats for Wild Card Weekend

Next Gen Stats for Wild Card Weekend
Davis Mattek January 3, 2019 10:45AM EDT

Next Gen Stats For The Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games

While most of what we will give you on NFL365 is going to be strictly actionable, it is important to remember that we all love football. Sometimes, it is interesting to delve into the new advanced stats to see what we can learn without trying to support a conclusion. The NFL Next Gen Stats Hub is one of the best places on the internet to examine what happens on the field through a statistical lens. They have advanced passing, rushing and receiving statistics that are produced by NFL player tracking, which logs “real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on ever inch of the field. Sensors running through the stadium track tags places on players’ shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.”

Pretty cool, right? This is the closest we have been able to get to the information that front offices use to evaluate players. Every week of the 2018 NFL Playoffs, I will be delivering a column analyzing some of the interesting Next Gen Stats about the players involved in the given matchups that week.

Nick Foles: Average Intended Air Yards

Nick Foles has not played many games this season (appeared in five games, started four) so it is hard to tell how reflective his numbers are of his current skill set. That said, he has the lowest Average Intended Air Yards of any quarterback in the NFL in 2018. Air Yards is defined by the NFL as “the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage.” The NFL tracks both Completed and Intended Air Yards, with the latter being Air Yards on all attempts. Simply enough, Air Yards is how far a ball is being thrown (so factoring out yards after the catch for passing yards), with balls passed behind the Line of Scrimmage recording a negative value.

The supposition with Foles having a lower Average Intended Air Yards than Derek Carr, Cody Kessler, and CJ Beathard is that perhaps the Eagles are in more trouble than we realized against the Bears. Foles has an Average Intended Air Yards of 6.7; the Bears defense is tied for the NFL lead with 4.8 yards allowed per play. The way for a road underdog team to win a playoff team against a good defense is to take the lead quickly on offense through explosive plays or defensive takeaways. By playing it safe with shallow targets, it might be tough for Philadelphia to get Chicago into a spot where they are playing from behind.

Gus Edwards: Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

In what was a complete and total surprise to me, Gus Edwards spends the least time behind his own Line of Scrimmage amont all ball-carriers in the NFL. Next Gen Stats defines this as “the amount of time a ball carrier spends (measured to the 10th of a second) before crossing the Line of Scrimmage. TLOS is the average time behind the LOS on all rushing plays where the player is the rusher.” Edwards averages only 2.43 seconds behind his own line of scrimmage per carry, which is a tenth of a second less than every other player.

Effectively, no player receives the ball and runs towards the hole faster than Gus Edwards. Edwards is a mostly unspectacular athlete who ran a 4.57 40-yard dash and is below the 50th-percentile in most measurable athletic categories compared to other running backs. He does seem to have an innate sense to move forward with the ball. Edwards has a rushing success rate of 63 percent, per Football Outsiders, which leads all running backs. I’ve gone back and forth on this game in terms of picking against the spread, but if Baltimore is able to run 45 or more times with Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards, they can close this out at home.

Taylor Gabriel: Average Cushion and Separation

Matt Nagy knew what he was doing when he signed Taylor Gabriel as a free agent from the Atlanta Falcons. The offense that Nagy had imagined in his head needed a small, fast and versatile wide receiver who was comfortable with the ball in his hands. Gabriel had only two touchdowns in the regular season but was able to generate 93 targets, which was a career high. The value that he delivered in the Chicago offense can be shown through two Next Gen Stats Metrics: Average Cushion and Separation.

Average Cushion is defined by Next Gen Stats as “the distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.” Gabriel averaged seven yards of cushion at the time of the snap in 2018, which was the fourth-highest amount of all pass-catchers. This cushion created space for Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller to operate. Gabriel was also one of the top ten players in Average Separation which is defined by Next Gen Stats as “the distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.” Gabriel had an Average Separation of 3.5 yards, which was greater than Tyreek Hill, Juju Smith-Schuster and any other stud wide receiver you would want to name.

Gabriel serves his role in Chicago’s offense very well and I think his speed and ability to generate separation is part of why the Bears will win this week.

Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
    March 25, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

    Trayveon Williams 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report As has been discussed to death by this point, this is not the most spectacular running back class. Josh Jacobs has an underwhelming athletic profile, scouts do not seem to be as high on Darrell Henderson as #DraftTwitter analysts are, David Montgomery is solid but not…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football premium
    March 25, 2019
    March Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Davis Mattek Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: March Update Now that the dynasty fantasy football window is crystallizing after free agency and before the NFL Draft, I combed through my dynasty fantasy football rankings and made some significant edits. 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings To read the rest of…

  • NFL Draft: The 2019 NFL Post-Combine Wide Receiver Success Model
    March 25, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

    Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…