Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Greg Dortch, Wake Forest
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Greg Dortch, Wake Forest

    Greg Dortch 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Greg Dortch is one of the best age-adjusted producers in the entire 2019 wide receiver class. In 2017, he broke out with 35 percent of Wake Forest receiving yards, and a ridiculous 47 percent of the touchdowns. Dortch accomplished this prior to his 20th birthday. He then…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
    You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football

    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine

2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine
Anthony Amico February 25, 2019 9:59AM EDT

2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Who’s On Top?

So far this draft season I’ve given you three different regression-based methodologies to deliver WR prospect rankings. The first two were regression tree models, and the third was a linear regression model.

Now I’m going to use all three to deliver my first set of WR prospect rankings.

The methodology is simple. We have success rates for the prospects as well as projected point totals. It is difficult to compare them that way because they are on different scales. So I will scale each data point one to 100, then combine the numbers. I’ll scale that composite total one to 100 as well so that it is easier to digest – almost like Madden ratings for incoming players.

This is what we get:

NameSchoolProjectionp(noDS)p(wDS)Composite Score
Marquise BrownOklahoma146.920.300.76100
NKeal HarryArizona State196.200.350.3592
Andy IsabellaMassachusetts111.180.350.3873
Greg DortchWake Forest102.850.500.1571
J.J. Arcega-WhitesideStanford127.290.300.1559
A.J. BrownMississippi165.250.010.3555
D.K. MetcalfMississippi199.270.010.2054
David Sills VWest Virginia86.990.300.1550
Deebo SamuelSouth Carolina92.620.350.0248
Kelvin HarmonNorth Carolina State121.970.010.3545
Scott MillerBowling Green State68.310.120.3843
Preston WilliamsColorado State55.430.300.1542
Anthony JohnsonBuffalo52.940.300.1541
Tyre BradyMarshall52.760.300.1541
Jamarius WaySouth Alabama41.780.350.0235
Tabari HinesOregon27.620.300.1535
Parris CampbellOhio State111.660.010.2033
LilJordan HumphreyTexas111.880.010.0223
KeeSean JohnsonFresno State84.400.010.0216
Hakeem ButlerIowa State82.580.010.0216
Mecole HardmanGeorgia81.630.010.0215
Darius SlaytonAuburn75.640.010.0214
Emanuel HallMissouri75.290.010.0214
Penny HartGeorgia State72.220.000.0212
Gary Jennings Jr.West Virginia68.590.010.0212
Riley RidleyGeorgia67.280.010.0212
Miles BoykinNotre Dame65.930.010.0212
Antoine WesleyTexas Tech64.070.010.0211
Jaylen SmithLouisville63.910.010.0211
Damarkus LodgeMississippi59.920.010.0210
Olamide ZaccheausVirginia57.640.010.0210
Dillon MitchellOregon56.970.010.029
Stanley Morgan Jr.Nebraska55.420.010.029
Damion WillisTroy53.190.010.028
Felton Davis IIIMichigan State53.250.000.028
Tony PollardMemphis48.410.010.027
Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsNorth Carolina46.600.010.027
Dredrick SnelsonCentral Florida46.520.010.027
Hunter RenfrowClemson46.060.010.027
Cody ThompsonToledo45.870.010.027
Nyqwan MurrayFlorida State45.480.010.027
Keelan DossUC Davis44.860.010.026
Kahlil LewisCincinnati43.310.010.026
Tyron JohnsonOklahoma State41.340.010.026
Diontae JohnsonToledo40.730.010.025
Travis FulghamOld Dominion40.640.010.025
Terry McLaurinOhio State39.800.010.025
Olabisi JohnsonColorado State39.790.010.025
Ryan DavisAuburn39.190.010.025
Jovon DuranteFlorida Atlantic38.800.010.025
Terren EncaladeTulane36.970.010.025
Jalen HurdBaylor39.600.000.024
Jamal CustisSyracuse35.950.010.024
Terry GodwinGeorgia34.230.010.024
T.J. RahmingDuke32.830.010.024
Ventell BryantTemple32.610.010.024
Teddy VealLouisiana Tech32.560.010.024
Papi WhiteOhio32.150.010.023
Grant PerryMichigan30.650.010.023
Brad StewartGeorgia Tech30.330.010.023
Terry WrightPurdue29.970.010.023
Marcus GreenLouisiana-Monroe28.890.010.023
Flynn NagelNorthwestern28.200.010.022
Juwann WinfreeColorado28.140.010.022
Justin HobbsTulsa28.110.010.022
James GardnerMiami (OH)31.690.000.022
JonVea JohnsonToledo27.440.010.022
Chris PlattBaylor26.600.010.022
Xavier UbosiAlabama-Birmingham26.370.010.022
Deondre DouglasTroy25.700.010.022
Jaelan AustinTexas Christian25.510.010.022
DeAndre ThompkinsPenn State24.880.010.022
Raelon SingletonHouston22.610.010.021
Trevion ThompsonClemson22.280.010.021
Chris TaylorDuke21.810.010.021
A.J. RichardsonBoise State21.530.010.021
Luke TimianIndiana21.280.010.021
Vic Wharton iiiCalifornia21.050.010.021
Kwadarrius SmithAkron20.730.010.021
Trevon LeeDuke20.490.010.021
Johnny WoodsKent State20.400.010.021
Matthew EatonIowa State20.010.010.021
Jay MacIntyreColorado17.950.010.020
Dylan CollieBrigham Young17.890.010.020

“Projection” represents the linear model projection for each WR. “p(noDS)” is the probability of success for the WR without a scouting component. “p(wDS)” is the probability of success for the WR with a scouting component.

The 2019 WR Prospect Model 1

WR Prospect Rankings: Tiers and Analysis

It may surprise you, but Marquise Brown comes out as the top-rated WR for me in this class. He had the fourth-highest projection in the model, and was dominant in both of the regression trees. In fact, he was the only player to satisfy each of the key data points in the tree that included scouting. He has an NFL bloodline (Antonio Brown is his cousin) and was outrageously productive in his final season at Oklahoma. I am extremely bullish on him.

The nice thing about scaling the scores is that it very naturally sorts the WR prospect rankings into tiers. The only WR prospect in proximity to Brown is N’Keal Harry, who is a more traditional top prospect given his age and production.

The next tier contains two of my favorite players in the class in Andy Isabella and Greg Dortch. Isabella has very balanced success across all of the evaluative methods, while Dortch seems to thrive most in the scouting agnostic regression tree.

After those two groups, the scores flatten out a good bit. Someone who finds himself grouped very tightly with supposed studs such as D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown is David Sills of West Virginia. Sills was originally recruited by WVU as a quarterback, but made the transition to WR after transferring from and back to the school. He scored an insane 33 TDs in his final two seasons.

Preston Williams and Tyre Brady are two intriguing transfer prospects. Both struggled to find the field much in their first stops (Tennessee and Miami respectively), but dominated at their new schools. Williams owned a 0.45 Dominator Rating in 2018 at Colorado State, while Brady posted back-to-back 0.42 DRs at Marshall.

Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I've Invested In Early
    March 22, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football: Players I’ve Invested In Early

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio: Players To Stock Up On Early I have already begun the process of drafting Best Ball Fantasy Football teams for 2019 (using our quite useful Best Ball fantasy football tools) and cannot wait to do more. A big part of our idea to launch the NFL365 package was to aid…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Miles Sanders, Penn State

    Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Greg Dortch, Wake Forest
    March 21, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Greg Dortch, Wake Forest

    Greg Dortch 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Greg Dortch is one of the best age-adjusted producers in the entire 2019 wide receiver class. In 2017, he broke out with 35 percent of Wake Forest receiving yards, and a ridiculous 47 percent of the touchdowns. Dortch accomplished this prior to his 20th birthday. He then…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
    You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football

    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…