DRAFT Best Ball Tools
As a part of the RotoExperts NFL 365 venture, it’s our goal to bring relevant NFL content to customers year round – including actionable fantasy advice as part of our premium package. A big part of doing that means a focus on best ball leagues, which have gained traction as a way to play fantasy practically year round. As part of that focus, we are introducing our DRAFT Best Ball Tools.
With that focus on best balls, we felt it was necessary to provide some tools to help our subscribers draft better. Last week, we launched our DRAFT and FFPC Historical Data tool. It’s the first of a few tools we have planned for this year. Others in the pipeline include extending historical data to other sites that offer best ball leagues, an integrated ADP tool, and the ability to track your player exposures on certain best ball sites.
The DRAFT and FFPC Historical Data tool allows you to make a variety of queries off of last year’s data to see how teams performed based on specific players drafted or overall roster construction. For DRAFT Best Ball Tools, we have prepared a primer for the tools.
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Our DRAFT data is robust, featuring over 99,000 teams drafted in DRAFT’s best ball championship tournaments last year. In that tournament, users were eliminated in stages or rounds. So, higher elimination rates in Rounds 1 – 3 is bad (it means you didn’t make it very far), while higher elimination rates in Rounds 4 and 5 is good (it means your teams made it to the final two rounds). It can be a little confusing visually at first, so let’s look at an example. These examples should give you a full understanding of our DRAFT Best Ball Tools.
DRAFT Best Ball Tools By Player
We have the ability to see how all rosters who drafted a certain player performed last year. Let’s take a look at how DRAFT teams who were lucky enough to land Patrick Mahomes fared:
Teams that drafted Patrick Mahomes were eliminated just 78.% of the time in the first round. While that sounds like a lot, you can see on the right-hand side that the average team was eliminated in the first round 91.5% of the time. Meanwhile, Mahomes teams made it to Round 5 0.606% of the time. While that seems like a small number, it’s much higher than the 0.133% of all teams. In other words, teams that drafted Mahomes last season were roughly 4.5 timers more likely to advance to the final round than the average team.
Meanwhile, if you drafted a first round bust like David Johnson, who underperformed despite staying healthy all year, your shots of advancing to the final two rounds was minimal:
Teams with Johnson made it to the final two rounds just 0.182% of the time compared to 0.533% of the time for the average team (Round 4 + Round 5 elimination rates).
As the saying goes, any strategy works if you draft the right players, and any strategy fails if you draft the wrong players.
However, it’s obviously very difficult and an element of luck in knowing who the right and wrong players are ahead of time. As a result, it’s important to give your teams the best probability of success by structuring them in the right way. We can try and figure that out:
DRAFT Best Ball Tool By Position
The by position tool allows you to query specific roster constructions. You can do things like test out the optimal number of quarterbacks to draft. Let’s look at the elimination rates for teams that drafted at least three quarterbacks:
These teams more or less had the same success rates as an average team. You can also see that 54.1% of all teams drafted this way.
What if you were a bit more risk tolerant and decided to draft only two quarterbacks?
The edge here is pretty small, but we do see that teams that drafted 2 quarterbacks fared slightly better both in terms of making it out of Round 1 and making it to Round 5.
While most teams were smart, drafting either two or three quarterbacks, 3.5% of teams opted to carry four-plus quarterbacks, which turned out to be a pretty disastrous set up:
The cool thing about the roster construction queries is that you aren’t limited to looking at just one position at a time. So, if you wanted to find the optimal mix or even test out a full 18-spot construction, this is something you can do. For me personally, most of my roster constructions last year featured just two quarterbacks and two tight ends while I loaded up on the running back and wide receiver spots. How did that fare?
While it’s a higher risk strategy because any injuries or busts to your “onesie positions” (quarterback or tight end) put a big strain on your roster, the high-end upside is there. Teams with this type of construction last year made it to the final round at a rate about 1.3 times higher than that of the average team.
Over the coming weeks, look for some premium in-depth DRAFT best ball guides. We will include more of this type of information as well as tendencies that we could see a change from 2018 to 2019. Additionally, we’ll hone in on the players that fit our strategies best, especially early in the year before the market sharpens up.
Our tools also make it so that you can investigate and find edges yourself:
DRAFT Best Ball Tools: https://rotoexperts.com/draft-best-ball-data/
RotoExperts Projections: https://rotoexperts.com/2019-fantasy-football-projections/