Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
    You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football

    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

  • Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders 2
    March 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders

    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State

    David Montgomery 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report More so than any other running back (other than the undraftable Elijah Holyfield), David Montgomery did himself no favors at the NFL Combine. Before the combine, it was assumed that either Montgomery or Josh Jacobs would be the top running back selected in the NFL Draft.…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report: Marquise Brown Marquise Brown, the ‘Hollywood’ cousin of new Oakland Raiders wide receiver Antonio Brown, put on a dazzling show his final season at Oklahoma. Playing with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, he played his way into the first round of the NFL Draft conversation. Unfortunately, he was…

Antonio Brown Is An Oakland Raider: Quick Reaction

Antonio Brown Is An Oakland Raider: Quick Reaction
Davis Mattek March 10, 2019 10:38AM EDT

Antonio Brown Traded For 3rd/5th Round Draft Picks To Oakland Raiders

Finally ending the saga that started Week 17, Antonio Brown has been traded from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Oakland Raiders for a third and fifth-round draft pick. Per Adam Schefter, ” Brown will receive a new three-year deal worth up to $54.125 million from the Raiders, with $30.125 million guaranteed, the source said. He previously had three years and $38.9 million left on his contract with the Steelers, with none of the money guaranteed. In the end, Brown converted the Steelers’ four-year extension at $17 million per year into what amounts to $19.8 million per year in new money.”

What is good for Antonio Brown is not necessarily good for the Oakland Raiders or the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the same report, Schefter concluded that ‘the Steelers will be forced to swallow $21.12 million in dead money against their salary cap’ and that it is likely the largest amount of dead-cap money in NFL history. The NFL salary cap is not near as stringent as the NBA salary cap but having an extreme amount of dead money is surely not optimal. The Steelers are also left without a starting wide receiver opposite JuJu Smith-Shuster. James Washington played in parts of 14 games last season but received only 38 targets for 217 yards and a touchdown. If he is not ready to play in 2019, I would expect that the Steelers would add at least one wide receiver in free agency and in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.

For the Oakland Raiders perspective, they acquired what is now their best player on offense but are paying a fairly absurd price to do it. The draft picks are nothing, just spare pieces after getting a shipload of picks for Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. Already the second-highest paid wide receiver in football, Antonio Brown is now the highest paid wide receiver by 1.8 million dollars over Odell Beckham at number two. Antonio Brown is now the only wide receiver over the age of 30 making more than 15 million per season.

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2018 was not close to a prime Antonio Brown season. He did score a league-leading 15 receiving touchdowns but those touchdowns covered up some big blemishes in his efficiency. His yards per reception was the third-lowest of his career, his catch rate was the lowest of his career, and he was the worst Steelers player with over 50 targets in adjusted yards per attempt (which includes touchdowns!). Juju Smith-Shuster, Vance McDonald and James Conner were more efficient when thrown the ball than Antonio Brown in 2018.

None of that is to say that Brown won’t be good for the Raiders but I am pessimistic that he changes Derek Carr from a 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt quarterback to an 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt quarterback. The Raiders will likely win more games in 2019 and have better advanced stats than in 2018 but that is not saying much. The downside of the trade likely won’t show up for a few seasons when Brown is making 19 million dollars at 34.

Antonio Brown Trade Fantasy Football Impacts

Arguably, the trade has more fantasy football impacts than real football impacts. JuJu Smith-Shuster is now at worst, a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver and has a chance to be the top overall fantasy football wide receiver. Vance McDonald, Jaylen Samuels and James Washington will all receive target bumps. Ben Roethlisberger’s stock has to tank ever so slightly for mostly volume concerns. The Steelers are likely to run more often (as they were one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league in 2018) with Antonio Brown in the silver and black.

For the Raiders: Derek Carr seems to be draftable as a QB2 in best ball and dynasty leagues now. There is almost no way he finishes higher than QB12 or so but he will likely have a few spike games that will be aided by massive volume to AB. Antonio Brown himself is now at best a second-round pick in 12-team fantasy football leagues but he won’t find himself on any of my teams. The declining efficiency combined with the downgrade in enviornment just isn’t worth the risk for me. This also likely signals that the Raiders want to “go for it”, so they are a Le’Veon Bell destination and perhaps other marquee free agents will be turning their attention to the big paychecks the Raiders are handing out.

Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
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  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
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    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

  • Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders 2
    March 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders

    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State

    David Montgomery 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report More so than any other running back (other than the undraftable Elijah Holyfield), David Montgomery did himself no favors at the NFL Combine. Before the combine, it was assumed that either Montgomery or Josh Jacobs would be the top running back selected in the NFL Draft.…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report: Marquise Brown Marquise Brown, the ‘Hollywood’ cousin of new Oakland Raiders wide receiver Antonio Brown, put on a dazzling show his final season at Oklahoma. Playing with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, he played his way into the first round of the NFL Draft conversation. Unfortunately, he was…