Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
    You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football

    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

  • Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders 2
    March 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders

    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State

    David Montgomery 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report More so than any other running back (other than the undraftable Elijah Holyfield), David Montgomery did himself no favors at the NFL Combine. Before the combine, it was assumed that either Montgomery or Josh Jacobs would be the top running back selected in the NFL Draft.…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report: Marquise Brown Marquise Brown, the ‘Hollywood’ cousin of new Oakland Raiders wide receiver Antonio Brown, put on a dazzling show his final season at Oklahoma. Playing with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, he played his way into the first round of the NFL Draft conversation. Unfortunately, he was…

Fantasy Football Free Agency: Cole Beasley & John Brown, Buffalo Bills

Davis Mattek March 12, 2019 4:12PM EDT

Cole Beasley & John Brown Sign With Buffalo Bills In Fantasy Football Free Agency

One of the most intelligent things that any NFL team can do when trying to develop a young quarterback is to give that quarterback the best context to succeed in. The Bills ran out a fairly talentless roster last season. Josh Allen was forced to throw passes to T-Rex Arms Nick O’Leary, the always not-trying Kelvin Benjamin, perpetually inefficient Zay Jones, undrafted free agent Robert Foster, the utterly aged Charles Clay, and something called Jason Croom. With the fantasy football free agency signings of Cole Beasley and John Brown, the Buffalo Bills front office has made steps in supporting their young quarterback.

Josh Allen will likely not ever succeed in a ‘traditional’ manner in the NFL. His biggest strengths are his throwing power and his running ability. One way the team could harness those strengths is by finding receiving who can get down the field quickly for those deep throws.

There are many things John Brown is not but one of them is extremely fast. John Brown has long been a favorite of the fantasy football community. Back in 2014, I noted that he was the exact sort of small-school, small-bodied WR who projected well to playing in the NFL. That looked fairly prescient as Brown proceeded to score 12 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons while gaining 1,669 yards. He tailed off his final two seasons as a member of the Arizona Cardinals while battling injuries and his sickle-cell trait illness. His short tenure in Baltimore was a tale of two halves. While Joe Flacco was under center, Brown averaged 13.19 PPR fantasy points per game and 7.4 targets per game. When Lamar Jackson took over, Brown scored only 58 fantasy points in seven games with only 261 yards. Clearly, his talents were not going to be utilized while Jackson was the quarterback and the Bills saw an opportunity.

Cole Beasley is a bit more of a curious signing. He is as dependable of a slot receiver as you can find in the NFL but as a fit in Buffalo, it is a bit hard to see. Likely, the Bills realize that they need to develop some sort of dependable short passing game or picking up first downs will become too difficult.

Fantasy Football Free Agency: Cole Beasley & John Brown, Buffalo Bills 2

As you can see, Allen was inaccurate in almost all zones of the field but particularly bad near the line of scrimmage. You would expect most quarterbacks to flourish when throwing the ball short distances but Allen was not able to. Cole Beasley has posted four seasons of his career with a catch rate north of 75%. Giving Allen a reliable slot receiver does make some theoretical sense though I would encourage most NFL teams to focus more on throwing the ball downfield. Oddly enough, these twin signings forecast great intelligence (John Brown) and traditional NFL thinking (Cole Beasley) at the exact same time. This is not to say that Beasley is completely without use; when matched up with a linebacker, he is unguardable.

John Brown & Cole Beasley Fantasy Football Free Agency Outlook

Cole Beasley has one season in his career with double-digit fantasy points per game and he is unlikely to add to that total in Buffalo. The Bills threw the fifth-fewest passes in the NFL last season and are unlikely to be significantly higher than that in 2019. Josh Allen’s completion percentage of 52.8% doesn’t bode well for Beasley becoming a PPR starter anytime soon.

I am slightly more optimistic on John Brown, though I acknowledge he makes more sense as a real football free agency signing than a fantasy football one. Brown can win at most levels of the field, as Matt Harmon will never tire of telling you. When Robert Foster was introduced to the starting lineup for the Bills last season, he posted games of 3-105, 2-94-1, 7-104, 4-108-1, and 4-21-1. Assuming that Brown plays a similar type of role, giving him an 18% target share in that offense would project him as a WR3 but with wildly volatile outcomes. If he scores only four touchdowns, it is unlikely he finishes the year as a top-24 WR but scoring 10 touchdowns is in his potential range of outcomes due to the nature of how Josh Allen plays and the role he will be in as a deep threat.

Fantasy Football Free Agency Signings:

Latavius Murray

Devin Funchess

DeSean Jackson

Jamison Crowder

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Popular Features

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine
    February 28, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine

    Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    March 1, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

  • The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model 2
    March 2, 2019
    The 2019 Post-Combine RB Success Model

    Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama
    March 15, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Josh Jacobs, Alabama

    Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

  • You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football
    March 19, 2019
    You Are Probably Too Low On Damien Williams For Fantasy Football

    Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    March 19, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

    Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

  • Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders 2
    March 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams & Oakland Raiders

    Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles: David Montgomery, Iowa State

    David Montgomery 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report More so than any other running back (other than the undraftable Elijah Holyfield), David Montgomery did himself no favors at the NFL Combine. Before the combine, it was assumed that either Montgomery or Josh Jacobs would be the top running back selected in the NFL Draft.…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
    March 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

    2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report: Marquise Brown Marquise Brown, the ‘Hollywood’ cousin of new Oakland Raiders wide receiver Antonio Brown, put on a dazzling show his final season at Oklahoma. Playing with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, he played his way into the first round of the NFL Draft conversation. Unfortunately, he was…