Dynasty Fantasy Football Sell Candidates
Getting proper value for a player who might not be contributing to your roster in a years time is one of the most difficult things to do in dynasty fantasy football. Particularly when a player was cheap to acquire (late in a startup or a dynasty fantasy football rookie draft) there can be an emotional attachment or a perception that any production you get in the future is just a bonus. However, there are always opportunities to turn the capital of an overvalued player into a more useful future or current asset. I took a look through some of my dynasty leagues and found three players who are better sells than holds at the time.
There are a couple of things clearly working in Carson’s favor which is why he makes an attractive trade candidate. The Seahawks ran the ball the second most times of any team in football last year and retained the same coaching staff. That same coaching staff let Mike Davis who was second on the team in carries and fifth on the team in targets leave to the Bears in free agency. However, Carson is a seventh-round draft pick who is playing in front of a first-round draft pick. Rashaad Penny is making significantly more money than Carson. The Seattle Times reported that part of the reason Penny struggled as a rookie was injuries. If he is able to enter the 2019 season healthy, I think something closer to a 50/50 split is a reasonable projection for the Seattle backfield. Furthermore, if Penny does well in 2019, Carson could be a complete afterthought by 2020 in which case treating him as a hold right now seems foolish. Carson also had 86% of Seattle’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line in 2018. That was second to only David Johnson in all of the NFL and unlikely to repeat with Russell Wilson and Penny on the roster. That percentage was even higher than Saquon Barkley last season and propped up a lot of Carson’s fantasy value.
I am not here to write an obituary for the New England Patriots but there are very convincing reasons to move on from James White at this point in time. The first is that they will be markedly less efficient without Rob Gronkowski. This is Tom Brady’s splits since 2010 with and without Gronk.
Brady threw more passes, completed fewer passes, threw more interceptions, significantly fewer touchdowns and dropped 1.11 yards per attempt when Rob Gronkowski did not play in 28 games the last eight years. Brady’s numbers went from being elite to being Derek Carr-esque when Gronk didn’t play. White has been good and productive when called up for the Patriots but is coming off his first season with over 100 touches (181 during the regular season). With Sony Michel (another first-round pick running back) and Rex Burkhead on the roster, there are other running backs capable of helping Tom Brady out. We have James White projected for around 45 carries and 87 targets which are less than last season in both categories but more than the other four seasons of his career. The truth is that he is likely a little overvalued given the context in New England now. They will be a little bit less efficient on offense, a decent bit more run-heavy and White will be second in line behind Michel who was the Patriots best player in the Super Bowl.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Brown
It may seem bizarre to conceive of Landry as a dynasty fantasy football sell candidate especially because I have already written on this website about how bright his 2019 opportunity is. The Browns project to have one of the best five offenses in the NFL with Freddie Kitchens and Todd Monken (third best passing offense in NFL with Jameis Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick last season) calling the plays. Baker Mayfield seems like a budding superstar, they added one of the five most efficient pass catchers in the league to an offense that already had Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, and David Njoku. The thing about Landy for dynasty fantasy football is that he has always been at this best when he has garnered a significant market share of his teams’ targets. He finished top-2o at his position three times in Miami while receiving 166, 131 and 161 short distance targets. The Browns still gave him 149 targets last season but his catch rate crated to 54% (from above 60% in Miami). If Landry doesn’t lead his team in targets for the first time since his rookie season, his chances of finishing as a top-24 wide recevier in fantasy diminish drastically. When Odell Beckham and Landry played together in college, Landry actually recorded more targets and receptions than Beckham. That will not be the case in 2019 and further. Beckham will be the clear top dog in this passing game because he is a better and more diverse player than Landry. He can run more routes, is more athletic and more useful on more areas of the field than Landry is. While Landry has at least three more years of being the second receiver in what will be a profilic offense, I see more downside in his projection than upside. For Landry to hit his fantasy football upside, he would likely have to be in an even target share with Odell Beckham which I am unwilling to project.
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