Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
    March 28, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Draft Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Right before the NFL Scouting Combine, I posted my Pre-Combine dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings with the caveat that things would certainly change. There are a few very significant changes from those rankings as I tend to value athleticism more than the average dynasty fantasy football…

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Post-Combine
    April 4, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Post-Combine

    Davis Mattek 2019 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 The 2019 NFL Draft is over 20 days away and the anticipation is killing most of us. While the NFL Draft is one of the most unpredictable events in all of the sporting world, NFL Mock Drafts are one of the most enjoyable parts of the entire process. I…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL ROOKIE RANKINGS
    April 17, 2019
    Final Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Running Backs

    Final Running Back Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, it has come time to finalize rankings at each of the positions. With the publication of each position, this will be my final landing spot-agnostic evaluation of each player. Running backs have the most to gain and lose with…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    April 11, 2019
    Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Dynasty fantasy football rankings are bound to get shaken up in two weeks when the 2019 NFL Draft happens but there is plenty of league business to handle now. I actually just finished up the startup draft for the #DFBInvitational myself and will be looking to improve my roster…

  • 2019 NFL Season Win Totals
    April 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Season Win Totals

    2019 NFL Season Win Totals Betting Analysis SportsGrid’s own full-time sports statistician used the 2019 NFL schedule released on April 17th to run several simulations of the 2019 NFL season and correspond to the Fanduel Sportsbook 2019 NFL Season Win Totals. We’ve already looked at some futures bets for the 2019 season but now that we have the…

  • Sportradar Partnership Announcement 1
    April 18, 2019
    Sportradar Partnership Announcement

    SPORTRADAR AND SPORTSGRID ANNOUNCE EXCLUSIVE PARTNERSHIP TO LAUNCH THE FIRST FREE, 24-HOUR SPORTS BETTING NETWORK NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 18, 2019 – Sportradar, the global leader in analyzing and leveraging the power of sports data, and SportsGrid, the leader in original programming for both daily fantasy and sports betting, today announced an exclusive partnership to launch the first…

  • 2019 NFL Futures
    April 17, 2019
    The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market: Is There Any Value?

    An Early Look At The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Hitting a futures bet is one of the absolute best feelings in sports. The cost associated is one that some people don’t necessarily realize though. While the prices might seem good eight months out, you’re paying a tax by keeping your money locked up in…

  • David Sills V, Greg Jennings and Will Grier: Determining What Is Real
    April 16, 2019
    David Sills V, Gary Jennings and Will Grier: Determining What Is Real

    What Mattered Most? David Sills V, Gary Jennings and Will Grier at West Virginia It is endlessly fascinating to me when a quarterback prospect and two or more of his wide receivers are all draft-eligible at the same time. Zach Mettenberger, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is the most famous case of this situation but…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Betting
    April 16, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prop Betting: Early Look

    Prop Betting For The 2019 NFL Draft Every sporting event is made better by wagering on it, especially if there is some edge in a newer market. The Fanduel Sportsbook (and several others) have begun to post possible wagers for the 2019 NFL Draft. There are odds posted on where Kyler Murray will be drafted,…

Assessing Age Curves for Dynasty Fantasy Football

Assessing Age Curves for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Anthony Amico April 15, 2019 10:44AM EDT

How Do Age Curves Work In The NFL?

If you play dynasty fantasy football, it is nearly impossible to not consider age. After all, that’s kind of the whole point, right? Build a dynasty that can win year-in and year-out. As a result, age ends up a part of every decision making process: the startup draft, trades, rookie drafts, etc. But are we thinking about age the right way? Getting age curves right is imperative for dynasty fantasy football.

Because the various NFL positions have different play-styles and risks associated with them, they age differently as their NFL careers go on. It likely isn’t fair to compare a 28 year-old WR to a 28 year-old RB. Or maybe it is. The only way we can know for sure is by looking at the data, which is what I set out to do today.

Age Curves by Position

I took a look at every PPR fantasy performance since 2000, and separated them by age and position. In an effort to make the data easy to consume, I took a look at the number of top 24 performances by age at both RB and WR, while looking at just top 12 for the “onesie” positions of QB and TE.

Assessing Age Curves for Dynasty Fantasy Football

The above plot shows the distribution of the fantasy seasons by age and position. It allows you to see how heavily concentrated top performances are around certain ages, and the layering allows you to compare across positions.

What Age Curves Say About RBs and WRs

I’m looking at these two positions together since they are the focal points of most fantasy leagues, and you typically start a similar amount of them. Some of what you see above falls in line with how you’ve likely approached dynasty in the past. Elite WRs appear to last longer than RBs, and the gaps are fairly significant once players reach age 29 or so.

We also see a much tighter distribution for RBs around the early ages of their career. This falls in line with what you’d expect, but is not typically factored in to how people approach rookie drafts and/or teambuilding. Often times we see folks investing heavily in young WRs, be it through a rookie or startup draft. Instead, this data seems to point towards taking some more seasoned WRs, maybe mid-20’s, and using rookie capital on RBs. If you are taking a RB who already has a few years of production under his belt, you are likely buying a player in decline.

To this end, I like to rotate my roster very heavily at the RB position, and acquire WR talent along the way. It goes something like this:

  1. Draft elite rookie RBs
  2. Wait for an elite season
  3. Trade RBs for more stable WR investments

My general mindset at RB is to assume that a great season is likely a player’s best season, especially when he manages to play all 16 games. Then trading those RBs allows me to be elite at WR, a position that has more stability over time.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo AMICO at checkout. Learn More HERE.

What Age Curves Say About QBs and TEs

Most fantasy leagues only require one QB or TE, and only one of these positions appear to be markedly impacted by age. QBs take slightly longer getting started than TEs (though that trend may be ending), but they last an incredibly long time. This is more evidence to not give up anything of real substance to upgrade the QB spot in dynasty, and even in 2QB/Superflex formats I think the position is very likely over-valued from the standpoint of age. Even a QB who has hit 30 still likely has a handful of quality seasons remaining, yet every year the top of the QB ADP board is the youngest players at the position. Think about how many elite Drew Brees seasons you’ve missed out on by taking the young QB de jour.

TE has a similar arc in the beginning to WRs. They take a little bit of time to get going, and peak at similar ages. However, TEs fade more quickly than WRs do, especially once they hit 30. The position is a lot more physical, and there is plenty of wear and tear accrued in the run game. Perhaps that will not be as big of a deal for glorified WRs like Evan Engram, but for the most part these guys are taking a beating every week.

Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
    March 28, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft: Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Draft Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Right before the NFL Scouting Combine, I posted my Pre-Combine dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings with the caveat that things would certainly change. There are a few very significant changes from those rankings as I tend to value athleticism more than the average dynasty fantasy football…

  • 2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Post-Combine
    April 4, 2019
    2019 First Round NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Post-Combine

    Davis Mattek 2019 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 The 2019 NFL Draft is over 20 days away and the anticipation is killing most of us. While the NFL Draft is one of the most unpredictable events in all of the sporting world, NFL Mock Drafts are one of the most enjoyable parts of the entire process. I…

  • First Round Rookie Mock Draft
    February 18, 2019
    First Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

    With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

  • DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL ROOKIE RANKINGS
    April 17, 2019
    Final Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Running Backs

    Final Running Back Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, it has come time to finalize rankings at each of the positions. With the publication of each position, this will be my final landing spot-agnostic evaluation of each player. Running backs have the most to gain and lose with…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    April 11, 2019
    Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Pre-Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Dynasty fantasy football rankings are bound to get shaken up in two weeks when the 2019 NFL Draft happens but there is plenty of league business to handle now. I actually just finished up the startup draft for the #DFBInvitational myself and will be looking to improve my roster…

  • 2019 NFL Season Win Totals
    April 18, 2019
    2019 NFL Season Win Totals

    2019 NFL Season Win Totals Betting Analysis SportsGrid’s own full-time sports statistician used the 2019 NFL schedule released on April 17th to run several simulations of the 2019 NFL season and correspond to the Fanduel Sportsbook 2019 NFL Season Win Totals. We’ve already looked at some futures bets for the 2019 season but now that we have the…

  • Sportradar Partnership Announcement 1
    April 18, 2019
    Sportradar Partnership Announcement

    SPORTRADAR AND SPORTSGRID ANNOUNCE EXCLUSIVE PARTNERSHIP TO LAUNCH THE FIRST FREE, 24-HOUR SPORTS BETTING NETWORK NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 18, 2019 – Sportradar, the global leader in analyzing and leveraging the power of sports data, and SportsGrid, the leader in original programming for both daily fantasy and sports betting, today announced an exclusive partnership to launch the first…

  • 2019 NFL Futures
    April 17, 2019
    The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market: Is There Any Value?

    An Early Look At The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Hitting a futures bet is one of the absolute best feelings in sports. The cost associated is one that some people don’t necessarily realize though. While the prices might seem good eight months out, you’re paying a tax by keeping your money locked up in…

  • David Sills V, Greg Jennings and Will Grier: Determining What Is Real
    April 16, 2019
    David Sills V, Gary Jennings and Will Grier: Determining What Is Real

    What Mattered Most? David Sills V, Gary Jennings and Will Grier at West Virginia It is endlessly fascinating to me when a quarterback prospect and two or more of his wide receivers are all draft-eligible at the same time. Zach Mettenberger, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry is the most famous case of this situation but…

  • 2019 NFL Draft Betting
    April 16, 2019
    2019 NFL Draft Prop Betting: Early Look

    Prop Betting For The 2019 NFL Draft Every sporting event is made better by wagering on it, especially if there is some edge in a newer market. The Fanduel Sportsbook (and several others) have begun to post possible wagers for the 2019 NFL Draft. There are odds posted on where Kyler Murray will be drafted,…