Quarterback Points Allowed
|1||Atlanta Falcons||NO||20.9||15||San Francisco 49ers||STL||15.9|
|2||Miami Dolphins||TEN||19.3||16||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||14.1|
|3||New England Patriots||BUF||19.5||17||Cincinnati Bengals||NYG||15.1|
|4||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||17.4||18||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||11.8|
|5||Baltimore Ravens||OAK||16.6||19||Oakland Raiders||BAL||11.0|
|6||Jacksonville Jaguars||IND||16.0||20||New Orleans Saints||ATL||13.4|
|7||Detroit Lions||MIN||18.1||21||Seattle Seahawks||NYJ||12.0|
|8||Buffalo Bills||NE||17.8||22||Carolina Panthers||DEN||14.5|
|9||New York Giants||CIN||16.1||23||Denver Broncos||CAR||13.6|
|10||San Diego Chargers||TB||17.3||24||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||11.6|
|11||Indianapolis Colts||JAX||15.0||25||New York Jets||SEA||11.4|
|12||Minnesota Vikings||DET||14.9||26||Chicago Bears||HOU||12.1|
|13||Tennessee Titans||MIA||16.5||27||St Louis Rams||SAF||10.5|
|14||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||SAD||15.1||28||Houston Texans||CHI||9.0|
ACES IN THE HOLE
Skipping right past Matt Ryan, as you start the man no matter what at this point (let alone, in the best matchup of the week), Ryan Tannehill is going to make for a popular Aaron Rodgers fill-in. Tannehill is a risk, but he does have four double-digit games on the year. Tannehill is not a QB1, and likely not a high-end QB2, but in leagues where the pickings are slim, you could do much worse than a QB facing a Tennessee team allowing 19.3 FPPG, 282.7 passing yards and over two TDs per game to QBs.
Another “let’s skip past the obvious” QB with Tom Brady playing the Bills, we instead look to Ben Roethlisberger against the Chiefs. Big Ben has already found his way back into QB1 territory this year, but a matchup against Kansas City cements his status as a rather good QB1 in Week 10. The Chiefs allow 316.8 passing yards per game! Think Ben can’t exploit that even without Antonio Brown?
Joe Flacco has fallen off quite a bit since that hot start. This is a good week for Flacco to get back on track as Baltimore hosts Oakland. With the Raiders struggling to find healthy RBs, the Ravens will likely have the ball quite a bit more than Oakland, which adds to Flacco’s potential in addition to this favorable matchup.
Matt Schaub continues to put up respectable, yet not astounding, numbers. Unfortunately, Schaub will be lucky to post even respectable totals against Chicago. The Bears continue to be the only team allowing under 10.0 FPPG to QBs and have given up just six passing TDs all season. Schaub will be lucky to crack double-digit Fantasy Points.
Not that most owners would even think of using Sam Bradford anyway, but in case you are looking for a fill in, don’t look in St. Louis. Bradford has just two games with over 12 FP, and neither came against a pass defense near the level of San Francisco’s. The 49ers are only barely behind Chicago in FPPG allowed (10.5) and are the only other team besides those Bears that have allowed just six passing TDs.
Jay Cutler is as risk/reward as they come, and this week, the risk outweighs the potential reward. Like his opponent Schaub, Cutler faces a top-end pass defense – one that allows just 12.1 FPPG to QBs and just 221.5 passing yards per game (fourth best in the league).
Running Back Points Allowed
|1||New England Patriots||BUF||24.5||15||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||SAD||14.5|
|2||Atlanta Falcons||NO||24.0||16||Carolina Panthers||DEN||14.9|
|3||Indianapolis Colts||JAX||23.3||17||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||12.4|
|4||Jacksonville Jaguars||IND||19.8||18||Detroit Lions||MIN||14.7|
|5||Miami Dolphins||TEN||22.6||19||Cincinnati Bengals||NYG||13.2|
|6||Baltimore Ravens||OAK||22.1||20||San Diego Chargers||TB||15.4|
|7||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||19.5||21||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||14.1|
|8||Oakland Raiders||BAL||19.6||22||Minnesota Vikings||DET||11.3|
|9||New York Giants||CIN||17.6||23||Buffalo Bills||NE||10.9|
|10||Denver Broncos||CAR||18.8||24||Tennessee Titans||MIA||11.9|
|11||Seattle Seahawks||NYJ||17.8||25||New York Jets||SEA||12.2|
|12||New Orleans Saints||ATL||17.5||26||Chicago Bears||HOU||11.0|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||STL||15.9||27||St Louis Rams||SAF||8.4|
|14||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||14.9||28||Houston Texans||CHI||9.1|
ACES IN THE HOLE
It took five weeks, but Bill Belichick decided to mess with us yet again as Stevan Ridley started sharing more touches with the rest of the RB crew (Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, etc.). As seen against St. Louis, Ridley can still put up big numbers on lesser touches, and he has a great chance to do so again. The Bills allow the most FPPG to RBs due to the 12 rushing TDs already given up and 142.3 rushing YPG allowed. Good times await Ridley.
Like last week, Vick Ballard’s value weighs heavily on Donald Brown’s ability to suit up. Brown missed practice Tuesday, and with a matchup against Jacksonville, Ballard could have RB2 value staring him in the face. Of course, if Brown plays, Ballard’s value takes a hit, but with the Jags having allowed the second-most rushing TDs, Ballard would still be a solid flex-value RB.
Michael Turner isn’t the back he used to be, but Turner can still toss in a few RB1/2 games when the time is right. With Atlanta heading to New Orleans, that time is in Week 10. Turner is often better indoors, and the Saints give up 148.5 rushing YPG. Turner should be in all lineups this week.
Since you never sit Arian Foster, no matter the matchup (even against Chicago who absolutely dominates on defense) let’s move on to Steven Jackson against San Fran. Not only do the 49ers shut down run games similarly to 2011, they’re coming off a bye and at home. The 49ers have let only three teams hit double digits – two thanks to Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw with the other only because of Joique Bell’s receiving yards. SJax has only hit double digits once this year. He won’t do it for a second time.
Remember that monster game against Indy and the solid showing versus New England for Shonn Greene? Remember how Greene came back to Earth with just a decent showing against Miami? Well you can expect much more of the latter against Seattle. In fact, Greene will be lucky to put up nine FP against a Seahawks defense that has allowed just one rushing TD all year.
Only one team has yet to allow a rushing TD, and it’s not Chicago. It’s not even that vaunted San Francisco defense. It’s Houston. You’re not benching Matt Forte, but you’re also not expecting a big day. And, you certainly should keep Michael Bush on the bench, as hoping for his occasional rushing TD is a mistake this week.
Wide Receiver Points Allowed
|1||Atlanta Falcons||NO||29.6||15||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||20.3|
|2||Jacksonville Jaguars||IND||24.3||16||Oakland Raiders||BAL||18.6|
|3||New England Patriots||BUF||24.4||17||Detroit Lions||MIN||17.6|
|4||Miami Dolphins||TEN||22.2||18||San Francisco 49ers||STL||18.8|
|5||Buffalo Bills||NE||25.3||19||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||17.4|
|6||San Diego Chargers||TB||27.4||20||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||16.5|
|7||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||21.0||21||New Orleans Saints||ATL||16.6|
|8||Minnesota Vikings||DET||20.9||22||Houston Texans||CHI||19.3|
|9||Tennessee Titans||MIA||24.9||23||Carolina Panthers||DEN||18.1|
|10||Indianapolis Colts||JAX||20.8||24||Chicago Bears||HOU||18.4|
|11||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||SAD||21.0||25||Denver Broncos||CAR||15.6|
|12||New York Giants||CIN||19.1||26||Seattle Seahawks||NYJ||13.3|
|13||Baltimore Ravens||OAK||19.6||27||New York Jets||SEA||16.2|
|14||Cincinnati Bengals||NYG||24.2||28||St Louis Rams||SAF||15.0|
ACES IN THE HOLE
With the Jaguars playing the Colts, deep leaguers have a few added options. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon are WR4s at best in most leagues, but those with bye or injury issues and/or in deep leagues can find use for both. The Colts average 24.3 FPPG allowed to WRs and have let WRs reach the end zone 12 times already.
It took two TDs (on two catches) for Brandon Lloyd to reach double digit FP for the first time since Week 4 back when the Pats faced the Rams in Week 8. Coming out of the bye, Lloyd and the Pats (see: Wes Welker) have a great matchup to put up more quality FP. The Bills allow 24.4 FPPG to WRs and have given up the third most receiving TDs (12). There is plenty of opportunity here for both Welker and Lloyd to provide at least WR2 value.
With Stevie Johnson hurting (thigh), there might not be anyone to take advantage of this Bills-Pats matchup for Buffalo. The Pats allow even more FPPG to WRs at 25.3 and have seen receivers notch 12 receiving TDs. Coach Chan Gailey expects Stevie to play, and if he does, he is worth a WR2 spot even with the bit of injury risk involved. If Stevie is out, Donald Jones has some nice sleeper value. While we’re talking about receivers, don’t overlook C.J. Spiller’s increased potential given his amazing receiving ability.
Danny Amendola is expected to return this week, but unfortunately, he faces the toughest receiving matchup possible: the 49ers. Even though Amendola is worthy of a WR3/4 play in PPR leagues, he’s a risky option in standard ones. Only two receivers have reached the end zone against San Fran, and the 49ers allow just 141.8 receiving YPG. Don’t even think about risking any of the other Rams WRs.
All of the Darrelle Revis stats of the Jets defense with or without him can be tossed aside. The Jets defense hasn’t missed a beat and is holding WRs to a total of 13.3 FPPG. That is due to the Jets averaging just 9.9 receptions and 123.8 receiving YPG allowed. Those hopes of using Sidney Rice or Golden Tate as upside plays should be reserved for another week.
On the opposite end of this matchup, the Jets receivers have a tough go as well. The Seahawks also hold down receivers with just 126.0 receiving YPG. Even though Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley had 11 targets each against Miami, they turned them into just 82 and 43 yards, respectively. Plus, the Seahawks allow an average of just 20.0 passing targets to WRs per game – the Jets had 34 against Miami just to get those numbers for Gates and Kerley. Obviously, Stephen Hill and Chaz Schillens are no better choices.
Tight End Points Allowed
|1||Miami Dolphins||TEN||11.3||15||Tennessee Titans||MIA||6.6|
|2||New York Giants||CIN||9.4||16||Denver Broncos||CAR||6.9|
|3||New England Patriots||BUF||8.0||17||Jacksonville Jaguars||IND||3.8|
|4||Minnesota Vikings||DET||7.1||18||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||5.6|
|5||Buffalo Bills||NE||9.4||19||Cincinnati Bengals||NYG||6.6|
|6||Detroit Lions||MIN||7.0||20||Chicago Bears||HOU||7.0|
|7||Seattle Seahawks||NYJ||10.0||21||New Orleans Saints||ATL||6.0|
|8||Baltimore Ravens||OAK||6.8||22||Indianapolis Colts||JAX||3.9|
|9||San Francisco 49ers||STL||7.8||23||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||5.8|
|10||Carolina Panthers||DEN||10.4||24||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||5.4|
|11||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||6.4||25||New York Jets||SEA||6.4|
|12||San Diego Chargers||TB||7.0||26||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||SAD||4.8|
|13||Oakland Raiders||BAL||6.5||27||Houston Texans||CHI||5.5|
|14||Atlanta Falcons||NO||5.0||28||St Louis Rams||SAF||5.1|
ACES IN THE HOLE
Anthony Fasano is too much of a risk, even for needy owners, as he has five games with four or less FP, including a goose egg last week. However, the Giants face a Cincinnati team that is allowing 9.4 TE FPPG, and they have a solid tight end in Martellus Bennett. Bennett has slowed after his first three games, but he has still managed 12 catches over the past three games and can fill in for Week 10 where needed.
With the Pats facing Buffalo, Rob Gronkowski owners are excited, and they should be. But, it doesn’t end there. If Aaron Hernandez can return this week, he is in line for a nice game as well, and owners would be wise to plug him back in lineups.
The Rams don’t have many worthwhile options, and Lance Kendricks is no different – especially against the 49ers. Since you weren’t starting Kendricks anyway, let’s hit on Owen Daniels. He certainly looks as good as he did years ago, but Daniels’ success will likely hit a low point against Chicago. The Bears defense is a force and allows just 5.5 FPPG to TEs.
Moving past Dallas Clark, who has just one useful game and sees a terrible matchup, we touch on Dustin Keller. He’s come on strong after returning from injury with two straight seven-catch games. That number will drop this week as Seattle allows just 6.4 FP, 5.2 catches and 57.7 receiving yards on average to tight ends, total.
(Reminder: You’ll notice the rankings are not in exact order of points allowed. Other metrics are calculated in along with just straight points. It allows for better analysis so one off-week doesn’t skew the opponent difficulty too greatly.)
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