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Martin Perez and Starter Prospect Perils

Ben Carsley December 12, 2012 7:29PM EDT
With the MLB and minor league seasons in the rearview mirror, it’s time to reevaluate my preseason prospect rankings.

The story of Martin Perez is a cautionary tale for those eager to label starter prospects as aces. Photo by mikelachance816.

It’s always difficult to find a balance between upside and probability when grading prospects, so looking back on my methods and looking to adjust heading forward is always a useful task. For readers, these will serve as a one-stop shop to catch up on how all of 2012’s prominent prospects performed and how their stock has been affected.

This is not a re-ranking of these prospects, nor is it a new prospect list. It’s simply a review of how I ranked the players before the season began, along with some analysis of what went right, what went wrong and everything in between.

In our penultimate installment, let’s review my preseason starting pitcher rankings, with a special focus on young arms whose stock trended downward static in 2012.

(PPR = Preseason Position Ranking, Pre/Mid = Preseason/Midseason Top 100 Ranking, NR = Not rated, G = Graduated to MLB. Starred* players are no longer prospect eligible.)

Swaying Backwards
PPR Player, Tm Analysis Pre/Mid
4. Julio Teheran, ATL Among biggest prospect letdowns of 2012 – not giving up on him, but stock way down. 8/27
9. Martin Perez, TEX Has disappointed for a few seasons in a row – probable mid-rotation SP, not an ace. 19/51
10. Manny Banuelos, NYY Essentially wasted two development years thanks to injury, no longer a Top 100 name. 20/52
14. Danny Hultzen, SEA Profile now is exact opposite of when he was drafted, hard prospect to figure out. 32/19
17. Brad Peacock, OAK Big steps back with command, homer rate in 2012, but still think he can start. 36/79
19 Randall Delgado, ATL* Solid but unspectacular in MLB – needs to be better to keep rotation spot with Atlanta. 38/G
20. Arodys Vizcaino, CHC He’s a reliever, and has plenty of value in that role, but talk of starting should end. 40/NR
26. Mike Montgomery, TB Command/control have regressed for two seasons – stuff only makes up for so much. 50/NR
28. James Paxton, SEA His control will prevent him from ever reaching ceiling, but can still be No. 3 SP. 53/63
30. Drew Hutchison, TOR* Personal favorite of mine, but have to put him here thanks to midseason TJ surgery. 62/G
32. Neil Ramirez, TEX Was a sucker for stats and overrated him preseason – he’s a mid-to-back rotation SP. 65/G
33. Taylor Jungmann, MIL Aggressive High-A assignment, but still surprised his season was so mediocre. 66/NR
36. Joe Wieland, SD Another Tommy John victim – No. 4 SP long term, but that won’t be until 2014. 71/NR
38. Trevor May, PHI Gives up too many homers, walks too many, leaning towards bullpen for him. 78/60
39. Dellin Betances, NYY Stock is way down – I’d put his upside at a set-up man with a lot of Ks and high WHIP. 79/NR
41. Sonny Gray, OAK I would put him in bullpen and see if his stuff plays up – not impressive as a starter. 81/NR
46. Alex Torres, TB Mediocre, injury-plagued year, low ceiling, deep organization all conspire against him. 100/NR
47. Chad Bettis, COL Shoulder injury and Rockies organization two huge black marks on his value. NR/NR
48. Jose Campos, NYY I love his upside and his stuff, but need to see where he is post-Tommy John. NR/NR
60. Andy Oliver, PIT Command/control issues kill his chances to start, Fantasy nonfactor even in NL. NR/NR
62. Erik Surkamp, SF Missed all of 2012 thanks to Tommy John surgery, mired SP-deep organization. NR/NR
63. Jed Bradley, MIL Injuries and ineffectiveness force his stock way down since draft day 2011. NR/NR
68. Anthony Ranaudo, BOS Even his biggest fans now only see a mid-rotation SP, while realists see even less. NR/NR
72. Deck McGuire, TOR Looked very hittable, posted 5.26 FIP in Double-A, not a Top 200 name anymore. NR/NR
74. Daniel Norris, TOR Never been as high on him as some others, and 2012 did nothing to change my mind. NR/NR
73. Trey McNutt, CHC Destined for bullpen after command issues continue to derail his ability to start. NR/NR
79. Enny Romero, TB Big drop in Ks without corresponding drop in walks in High-A, never a good sign. NR/NR


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