STREAMING POWER RANKINGS – SATURDAY, MAY 10TH
- Zach McAllister (19%) @TB
- Kyle Kendrick (3%) @NYM
- Miguel Gonzalez (5%) vs. HOU
- Dillon Gee (45%) vs. PHI
- Eric Stults (2%) vs. MIA
- Jose Quintana (36%) vs. ARI
- Chris Young (2%) vs. KC
- Tanner Roark (25%) @OAK
- J.A. Happ (0%) vs. LAA
- Jordan Lyles (14%) @CIN
It’d be easy to say that Miguel Gonzalez has been unlucky so far this season, as the righty’s .333 BABIP is 10th highest in the American League and a 68.9% strand rate should normalize a touch, but the fact of the matter is he’s just not pitching deep enough into games to be effective. Gonzalez is averaging just over five innings per start in 2014, and has yet to pitch into the 7th. Part of the reason for this has been ineffectiveness, however outlier contact rates have also skyrocketed his pitch counts. Opposing hitters are making contact with just 59.1% of pitches Gonzalez throws outside of the strike zone – a nearly 16% drop off from 2013. Yes, this has manifested itself in the form of an 8.22 K/9, easily a career high, but in general, batters are swinging at fewer pitches and Gonzalez is walking more than three men per nine. So, good thing Baltimore is playing Houston Saturday, a team that doesn’t know the meaning of the word patience. The Astros are tops in the AL is strikeout rate and also possess the league’s worst average at .218. If Gonzalez’s fortunes are going to turn around – it’s this weekend.
Regression could work in the opposite direction for Chris Young, however. The veteran’s .193 BABIP would be good enough for fourth lowest in baseball if Young had the capacity to pitch deep enough into games to qualify. His matchup against Kansas City isn’t daunting by any means, but with an xFIP double the size of his 3.03 ERA, Young is a steer clear for me even in deeper leagues. The risk doesn’t nearly outweigh the reward of a pitcher with more walks than strikeouts a month into the season.
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