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Is It Time To Sell High On Ben Roethlisberger?

RotoExperts Staff November 4, 2014 10:10AM EDT
BUY

Percy Harvin – He has been looked at (targets in the passing game plus rushing attempts) 27 times in his two games as a member of the Jets (26 in his final month in Seattle) and is still the ultra-talented play-maker that we’ve identified him as for a couple of years now. We are no longer dealing with the Michael Vick Experience, and rumors have Geno Smith as still in the mix to retake this quarterback job, but the Jets acquired Harvin to use him, so the targets are going to be there (the quality of targets is another issue, but volume has value) regardless of who is under center. Very rarely does a coach appear to want a certain player to hold Fantasy value, but it is entirely possible that Rex Ryan drafted Harvin this offseason and is taking advantage of this opportunity to make a late run in his Fantasy league while his real life team sets the sport of football back decades every weekend.

HOLD

Matt Asiata – Jerick McKinnon owners need to relax. He is still the far more talented back and, despite Asiata’s effectiveness as a vulture, this was still a 50/50 split in terms of snap count. Standing at the line of scrimmage and falling forward isn’t exactly a sought after skill set for a starter, but it is a good trait to have in short-yardage situations and it is something Asiata can consistently do. The Vikings are going to continue to rely on running the ball, so it is reasonable to think that Asiata can get 7-10 touches on a weekly basis. That being said, it is awfully difficult to count on Minnesota getting so many short yardage touchdown opportunities with any sort of consistency. Don’t count on Asiata weekly, but you could do far worse as a plug-n-play option if you’re stuck in a tough spot and want to chase touchdowns.

Ronnie Hillman – The rushing performance against the Patriots was less than inspiring (10 carries for 16 yards), but he did manage to haul in seven passes and score twice. He has simply been too productive since the Montee Ball injury (4.4 yards per carry and 3.4 catches per game) to be dropped or dealt at a discount. It is possible that Ball regains his role as the lead back, but he had done very little to inspire optimism prior to the injury and the potential for a groin injury to linger is there. Hillman could lose some touches starting as early as this week (as it stands right now, I still consider him a Fantasy starter given the volume of Week 10 byes), but Ball’s status is not so overwhelming that Hillman losses all upside when he is activated.

What to do with Ben Roethlisberger and his insane back-to-back performances? Photo: SteelCityHobbies https://www.flickr.com/photos/steelcityhobbies/

What to do with Ben Roethlisberger and his insane back-to-back performances? Photo: SteelCityHobbies

Ben Roethlisberger – As someone who doesn’t own Big Ben, this may be easier for me to say than to do, but don’t sell high. I understand the temptation, and I suppose every player has his price, but don’t rid your team of the hottest player in Fantasy sports simply because it feels like the right thing to do. I’ll go ahead and take the “under” of 0.5 games in which he throws six-plus touchdowns again this season (heck, I’d probably take it through next season), but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a Top 5 quarterback from this point forward. The receiving weapons are real (Antonio Brown is the best sub 6’2” receiver in the game, Le’Veon Bell is an NFL level receiver, and the Markus Wheaton/Martavis Bryant tandem stretches the field at an elite level) and the schedule only lightens as the season progresses. If you can get an elite quarterback or a Top 10 option plus help elsewhere, a trade is possible (contact me with direct questions) as a result of his Week 12 bye, but with the Jets, Saints, and Falcons still on the schedule, I’m not actively shopping Roethlisberger in the same fashion I would most players after back-to-back historic performances.

SELL

DeSean Jackson – Are you really back for more? I thought we cleared this up here and here. To give you the Spark Notes version: RG3 has never been a statistically strong quarterback throwing the deep ball and Jackson has never established himself as anything but a deep ball receiver. Yes, I know he caught a 13 yard score from Griffin on Sunday in addition to a 56 yard pass, but that doesn’t undo what we’ve seen in the past. If you want to argue that Griffin (I can only call him “RG3” so many times until we see the old dynamic version that earned a legit nickname) throws a pretty deep ball, I’ll listen, but this is a numbers game, and I’ve yet to find a “pretty deep ball” league where you get points for passes that look good but don’t result in gains. There are going to be big weeks, but there are going to be just as many poor weeks that has you ready to quit Fantasy sports. He is Rob Lowe and super creepy Rob Lowe, but you can’t own one without the other. Sell high after his Week 9 strong performance with Robert Griffin III (or really any strong performance moving forward), knowing that you are never going to feel great about starting him in a given week.

WEEK 10 SURVIVOR PICKS

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Kansas City @ Buffalo

Miami @ Detroit

Dallas @ Jacksonville

San Francisco @ New Orleans

Tennessee @ Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ New York (Jets)

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Denver @ Oakland

St. Louis @ Arizona

New York (Giants) @ Seattle

Chicago @ Green Bay

Carolina @ Philadelphia

Why are those teams going to win and by how much?

Week 10 Mailbag

@MGreenberg: Would you drop Charles Sims or SJAX to pick up AP?

Answer: The Adrian Peterson plea deal has Fantasy owners up in arms about what to do, as the thought of adding a Top 5 talent to their roster for the stretch run is about as enticing as it gets at this point in the season. Don’t fall victim. There might not seem like much risk in dropping a player like Charles Sims or Steven Jackson for the potential reward of Adrian Peterson, but this isn’t the Josh Gordon case. We can label Gordon as a bonehead or an addict, neither of which is ideal, but neither label gives the Browns a black eye when it comes to public perception. Fair or not, Peterson has been labeled a child abuser, a title that will follow him to wherever his next NFL stop is. The point here is that organizations view one thing ahead of winning: how the fan base and the team’s sponsors view the franchise. If there are no fans or sponsors, there is no revenue and no hope of winning. Bringing in Peterson, assuming he wins this plea deal and the charge of injury to a child is downgraded to a misdemeanor, sends the wrong type of signal to a fan base and could have a significant negative long-term impact. Does Peterson have a very good chance at winning this lawsuit? Sure, the best lawyer that money can buy against a small city always has a chance, but it is near impossible to envision a stable franchise welcoming this type of negative publicity (they are considered “stable” franchises because they don’t make moves like this). Sims is a talented kid that might get the chance to start in Tampa Bay sooner rather than later and Jackson is a veteran who continues to get touches and should be fresh off of a bye week.

@BDub237: Julio or Maclin for the rest of the season?

Answer: We are discussing two elite receivers here, so there is no wrong answer. Having said that, there is a right answer … Julio Jones. Personally, I believe he is the more talented player, but for argument’s sake, let’s call pure skill a draw. The Falcons have their starting quarterback healthy and rested (Week 9 bye), giving Jones a decided edge in terms of the player responsible for getting him the ball. The schedule also lines up nicely, as this Atlanta offense functions at a much higher level at home. Among their final seven games, three are home, but the four road games are against less than intimidating defenses (Tampa Bay, Carolina, Green Bay, and New Orleans). The Falcons have underachieved up to this point, yet Jones is still on pace to essentially match the production of Alshon Jeffery in 2013, a Top 10 receiver in Standard and PPR formats. On the flip side, you have Maclin, a receiver on an incredible roll that is winning his Fantasy owner’s weeks. He has exploded onto the scene due to his ability to make the big play (his 17.3 aDOT is the greatest of any Top 20 Fantasy receiver, his 13 20-plus yard catches rank fifth in the league and his five receptions of at least 40 yards ranks second). Nick Foles (broken left collarbone, sidelined 6-8 weeks) isn’t going to be throwing him the ball anymore, however, as Mark Sanchez is responsible for continuing to feed Maclin. Sanchez has NFL experience and should be able to get Maclin the ball, but not in as advantageous of a manner. Consider this: in Sanchez’s 2011 breakout campaign (can we even call it that?) the deep ball (passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field) was not in his repertoire. He tallied fewer yards on such passes than Tim Tebow (yea, that Tim Tebow) and completed a lower percentage of his bombs than Tavaris Jackson and Rex Grossman. Through nine weeks, Foles tops the league in deep touchdown passes and percentage of passes thrown downfield. Maclin will continue to be the Eagles top receiver and should still see a strong volume of targets, but the drop off in quarterback play makes him more of a Top 10 receiver, not a Top 5 option.rossman.percentage of his bombs than ld be able to get Maclin the ball, but not in as advantagous ms of

Want your question to appear here? I take questions via Twitter during Monday Night Football. If your question deserves more than a 140 character response, it’ll get some love in this weekly column.

Week 10 DraftKings Lineup

QB – Aaron Rodgers vs CHI

RB – Marshawn Lynch vs NYG

RB – LeSean McCoy vs CAR

WR – Julio Jones @ TB

WR – Randall Cobb vs CHI

WR – Jericho Cotchery @ PHI

TE – Scott Chandler vs KC

FLEX – Justin Forsett vs TEN

D/ST – Bengals vs CLE

 

Fantasy questions? I’ll offer my insight into your Fantasy NFL, NBA, or even MLB questions.

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