Popular Features

  • Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019
    August 22, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019

    Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019 The final countdown for the start of the 2019 NFL season has begun. We are less than two weeks from the kick-off of the season and more importantly, we are heading into the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year. Over the next 10 days, there…

  • Davis Mattek analyzes all of the NFL week three preseason action and comes away with 32 actionable fantasy football takeaways for fantasy football players.
    August 26, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Three Preseason NFL

    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Three Preseason NFL All of the “serious” preseason football has been played; we aren’t going to see anymore starting players on the field after week three preseason games. The to-the-decimal projections here on RotoExperts have continued to be updated to the meaningful playing time shifts from preseason…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE premium
    September 9, 2019
    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More

    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More (Most) of Week One is in the books! Things went rather well for RotoExperts subscribers as Malcolm Brown, Sammy Watkins and Lamar Jackson had amazing days to set themselves up for success for the rest of the year. Of course, fantasy football is never…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE
    August 29, 2019
    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format

    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format Fantasy football draft season has come and is now rapidly running away from us. Labor Day weekend is when a vast majority of the fantasy football drafts take place in the United States but I have already been through the wringer of more than…

  • Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma
    August 20, 2019
    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma

    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma: A Fan’s Plea For A High Variance Offense I’ve been meaning to write this article for a while, and it’s difficult to tell where to start. I think the best place is my feelings about Josh Allen when he was first drafted.  I was upset. I thought it…

  • Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season
    August 30, 2019
    Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season

    Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season Bold predictions are exactly what they sound like: bold. By having defined ideas about how the fantasy football season might go, you can actually make better fantasy teams. If you draft every team with the same vision in your projections as to how the…

  • How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football
    August 20, 2019
    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football

    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football It actually happened! After taking an aggressive stance on Josh Gordon in the DRAFT Best Ball championship and in other league formats, Gordon has been reinstated by the league and returned to the New England Patriots organization. Of course, this is not the first time that Josh…

  • 32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL
    August 19, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL

    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL Preseason continues to matters for those who are serious about winning their fantasy football leagues. Not every team flashed their true colors in week two preseason action but there was plenty to take away from a fantasy football context. The to-the-decimal projections here…

  • Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The RotoWire Pentathlon Experts League
    August 28, 2019
    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League

    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League Fantasy football auctions are pretty drastically different than a standard snake draft. Obviously, instead of drafting players in sequential order, fantasy football managers are given a fake budget (usually $200 “dollars”) in which to complete their starting roster and bench spots. There are many different…

  • Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019
    August 23, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019

    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019 You have waded through all the articles and research. You read The Perfect Draft for your draft selection, you printed out your customizable cheat sheet using the best projections and rankings in the fantasy football industry and you are ready to absolutely crush your league using the ULTIMATE…

Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Check

Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Check
Davis Mattek June 11, 2019 3:02PM EDT

Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Analysis

If you are drafting a ship load of Best Ball fantasy football leagues on DRAFT and other sites, doing an analysis of your Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio is incredibly important. It’s very possible that you are over or underexposed to a few players relative to what you are wanting over the course of draft season. While we laid out the foundation of winning DRAFT Best Ball Leagues, it is course important to be drafting a variety of players. You might feel extremely strongly about 10 or 15 players and it’s mathematically fine to take them on a plurality of your best ball teams. This article will contain an analysis of my DRAFT Best Ball teams in 50+ drafts from this offseason to see how the RotoExperts rankings and projections are culminating into finalized rosters.

Quarterback Portfolio

Sam Darnold 20% Of Rosters
Phillip Rivers 17%
Jameis Winston 13%

If you had told me in January that these three quarterbacks would be my highest owned, I almost certainly would have believed you. Darnold is one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks available in the market with an Average Draft Position on DRAFT of 164.6. While most teams have already selected a starting quarterback by around Round 12, our Ultimate Guide To Winning DRAFT Best Ball Leagues suggests that the optimal construction is taking only 2. Darnold fits that construction perfectly as you can load up on RB/WR before selecting him in the 15th round. There is defintely ceiling for Darnold as he had the best QBR of any QB in the month of December and has added Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder to what was a thin positional group.

Rivers and Winston are dichotomies of each other. On teams where I am embracing risk, whether it be by selecting an explosive but low floor player like Mecole Hardman or going heavily Zero-RB, Rivers is the perfect add. You can feel comfortable taking Rivers as your first QB and you are not forced to consider him until the 11/12th rounds of drafts. Rivers has been a top 14 QB in fantasy each of the last six seasons and has finished inside the top 10 seven times in his career. The Chargers offense projects to perform very similar to 2018 with Dylan Cantrell subbed in for Tyrell Williams but adding Hunter Henry at TE.

Winston will have a very large hand in how my teams do in 2018. Not only am I making an effort to land him on a large number of my rosters but I am also very invested in Ronald Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Cameron Brate. Our projections have Winston as a screaming value at his 111.7 ADP as he is our second-highest projected quarterback. If QB was a more important position, this sort of difference between ADP and projection would make him a top target. As it stands, he is a great value and worth targeting starting in the 10th round.

Running Back Portfolio

Ito Smith 44%
Ronald Jones 34%
Chase Edmonds 27%
Dion Lewis 24%

When you enter into the realm of Zero-RB drafting, your exposure percentages for running backs are going to look quite odd. Theoretically, your exposure to the top tier (Barkley, Elliot, Kamara, CMC, David Johnson) should be pretty varied based on where your first round picks land. Then, the next tier of RB’s shouldn’t be too high of a priority, particularly the Dalvin Cook/Marlon Mack/Leonard Fournette grouping.

What you will find, however, is that you continually draft towards the same style of running backs late in drafts. Our projections are a fan of the backfield split between Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith relative to ADP. I recently wrote about the impending breakout for Ito Smith which will transpire this season if Freeman struggles at all and will be enhanced by Smith’s skills as a receiver. Similarly, the market seems to have forgotten that Dion Lewis topped 200 touches last season and is a better pass catcher than Derrick Henry. The team may be planning on using Henry as a three-down back but Lewis is the primary spell back and handcuff to Henry on a team that will run the ball plenty. The median outcome for Lewis isn’t earth-shattering but he should provide some weekly scores even if Henry does not get injured.

Chase Edmonds is just a player that is undervalued. He has an RB1 ceiling if David Johnson goes down injury and those sorts of players are very valuable in a Best Ball format. We know that running backs will get hurt, we know that not all of these RB1’s will make it through the season. While handcuffs are probably overvalued in weekly management leagues because they clog up a roster spot, they are likely undervalued in Best Ball formats you are only getting their good weeks. Edmonds also has some weekly upside as a member of an offense that we project to be in the top-half of the league in terms of yards per play and pace as DJ is not going to play 100% of the weekly snaps.

Finally, Ronald Jones is one of the most interesting players to diagnose in fantasy right now. He was highly drafted, barely played as a rookie due to his inability to pass block or perform as a pass catcher and was benched for do-nothings Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber. The new regime has spoken highly of Jones throughout the offseason and he certainly has a chance at being the top running back in a top passing offense (a very valuable role). The reason that I keep selecting him is that the upside of finding an RB1 in Round Eight is league winning; the downside of that pick not panning out doesn’t kill a given best ball team (though it is a disadvantage).

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Wide Receiver Portfolio

Chris Godwin 24%
Demarcus Robinson 24%
Kenny Golladay 24%
Kenny Stills 20%

The heavy hitters here are Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay. Of all the wide receivers who are in the WR2-tier after the true studs, I feel most confident in Godwin and Golladay to post eye-popping numbers. Godwin’s target share went up exponentially with both Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson out of town. Then the Buccaneers added a pass-happy head coach who made John Brown a fantasy football stud while Larry Fitzgerald remained an WR1. While Godwin feels like a total slam dunk, there are a few reasons to be concerned about Golladay. While Babytron confidently projects for around a 25% market share of the Lions passing offense, that pie might be smaller due to the run-heavy offense Detroit wants to establish. However, I will gladly pay the premium for a clear WR1 who will also be his teams’ primary red zone weapon.

Robinson was not a player that I planned on being super overweight on but the reasons for drafting him are clear. Tyreek Hill seems unlikely to start the season with the team, Chris Conley is gone and Mecole Hardman is a raw rookie. While Robinson might not be a starting wide receiver for the best passing offense in football all season, I do think it is likely that in the first half of the season, he is the primary boundary receiver with Sammy Watkins in the slot. That alone justifies an 18th round selection especially in drafts where you take Mahomes (which I have done on a few occasions).

We have already touched on how the Miami passing offense is currently undervalued in the DRAFT Best Ball markets. Stills is fairly clearly the WR1 in Miami with some debate after him between Parker, Albert Wilson and the other tertiary wide receivers they have on the roster. Locking in 110 targets after the 12th round is an easy decision to make especially considering Stills’ otherworldly TD rates throughout his career.

Tight End Portfolio

Austin Hooper 20%
Trey Burton 17%
Travis Kelce 17%
Mike Gesicki 17%

The outline in the DRAFT Best Ball guide for tight ends was pretty simple: select one of the elite tight ends (Kelce/Ertz/Kittle) or wait until the double-digit rounds to start taking them. Travis Kelce is often available in the second round and when that is the case, I select him. His ceiling is higher than any other tight end and his median projection makes him a top-12 value in all of fantasy football.

However, we can’t all be lucky enough to get Travis Kelce in every draft. Austin Hooper has been one of my frequent targets due to his affordable cost and reliable role in a good offense. The RB/WR market really starts to dry up close to where Hooper is selected. Hooper is involved enough on a game to game basis that I am fine taking him as my first tight end and only selecting a single back up. Having only two tight ends on a roster is a systemic advantage which is another reason taking Kelce is such a strong move.

To be quite honest, I do not feel overly strong about Trey Burton. He doesn’t have a high-volume role in the Bears offense and our projections do not love him either. Burton does offer good touchdown upside as the Bears don’t have another reliable redzone option outside of him and Allen Robinson and he finished inside the top-10 of tight ends last year despite seeing fewer than 80 targets.

Finally, if we are taking stabs at the Miami passing game, it would be foolish to overlook Mike Gesicki. Only one year removed from being a highly drafted uber-athlete at the tight position (legit 99th-percentile SPARQ athleticism), Gesicki is the perfect example of a player who is following a normal developmental curve but has been forgotten about by drafters. Gesicki was actually drafted more often and higher as a rookie tight end than he is being drafted now. This sort of dip in the market is a perfect buy.

Popular Features

  • Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019
    August 22, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019

    Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019 The final countdown for the start of the 2019 NFL season has begun. We are less than two weeks from the kick-off of the season and more importantly, we are heading into the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year. Over the next 10 days, there…

  • Davis Mattek analyzes all of the NFL week three preseason action and comes away with 32 actionable fantasy football takeaways for fantasy football players.
    August 26, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Three Preseason NFL

    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Three Preseason NFL All of the “serious” preseason football has been played; we aren’t going to see anymore starting players on the field after week three preseason games. The to-the-decimal projections here on RotoExperts have continued to be updated to the meaningful playing time shifts from preseason…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE premium
    September 9, 2019
    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More

    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More (Most) of Week One is in the books! Things went rather well for RotoExperts subscribers as Malcolm Brown, Sammy Watkins and Lamar Jackson had amazing days to set themselves up for success for the rest of the year. Of course, fantasy football is never…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE
    August 29, 2019
    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format

    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format Fantasy football draft season has come and is now rapidly running away from us. Labor Day weekend is when a vast majority of the fantasy football drafts take place in the United States but I have already been through the wringer of more than…

  • Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma
    August 20, 2019
    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma

    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma: A Fan’s Plea For A High Variance Offense I’ve been meaning to write this article for a while, and it’s difficult to tell where to start. I think the best place is my feelings about Josh Allen when he was first drafted.  I was upset. I thought it…

  • Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season
    August 30, 2019
    Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season

    Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season Bold predictions are exactly what they sound like: bold. By having defined ideas about how the fantasy football season might go, you can actually make better fantasy teams. If you draft every team with the same vision in your projections as to how the…

  • How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football
    August 20, 2019
    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football

    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football It actually happened! After taking an aggressive stance on Josh Gordon in the DRAFT Best Ball championship and in other league formats, Gordon has been reinstated by the league and returned to the New England Patriots organization. Of course, this is not the first time that Josh…

  • 32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL
    August 19, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL

    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL Preseason continues to matters for those who are serious about winning their fantasy football leagues. Not every team flashed their true colors in week two preseason action but there was plenty to take away from a fantasy football context. The to-the-decimal projections here…

  • Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The RotoWire Pentathlon Experts League
    August 28, 2019
    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League

    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League Fantasy football auctions are pretty drastically different than a standard snake draft. Obviously, instead of drafting players in sequential order, fantasy football managers are given a fake budget (usually $200 “dollars”) in which to complete their starting roster and bench spots. There are many different…

  • Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019
    August 23, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019

    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019 You have waded through all the articles and research. You read The Perfect Draft for your draft selection, you printed out your customizable cheat sheet using the best projections and rankings in the fantasy football industry and you are ready to absolutely crush your league using the ULTIMATE…