Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Tight End
    May 28, 2019
    Three Impending Fantasy Football Breakout Seasons

    These Three Fantasy Football Breakout Players Are Ready To Shine It is no secret that every year in fantasy football, players emerge who were just barely on the periphery of fantasy football relevance during fantasy football draft season. Last year at this time, you did not know who Phillip Lindsay was, James White was just…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
    May 30, 2019
    Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back

    Five Running Back Fantasy Football Sleepers Finding late round running back fantasy football sleepers is the surest way to attain a league-winning roster. Phillip Lindsay and James Conner were legitimate league-winners at the running back position last year and they barely had ADP’s. Unlike most of our recent content, including the ULTIMATE Guide To Winning…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL ADP VALUES
    June 12, 2019
    Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP

    Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP Winning fantasy football drafts is about beating Average Draft Position. If you are able to beat ADP with your player evaluations, your rosters will be stronger than your league-mates. For this article, I used our Best Ball ADP vs Projections tool to pull some…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio
    June 11, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Check

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Analysis If you are drafting a ship load of Best Ball fantasy football leagues on DRAFT and other sites, doing an analysis of your Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio is incredibly important. It’s very possible that you are over or underexposed to a few players relative to what you are…

  • 10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition
    June 10, 2019
    10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition

    10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition Much of what we do here at RotoExperts is math-based and centered around probability. What is the range of outcomes for Josh Jacobs career? How likely is Patrick Mahomes to repeat his 2018 MVP season? How much risk is involved in projection Dede Westbrook for a 20% market…

  • June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    June 7, 2019
    June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Now that we have passed the 100-day mark until the start of the 2019 NFL season, it is time to take another look at dynasty fantasy football rankings. Reports have started to trickle out of organized team activities and we have a better idea of where the health of…

  • The Contingency Plan: Oakland Raiders 3
    June 7, 2019
    The Contingency Plan: Oakland Raiders

    What Fantasy Football Questions Exist For The 2019 Oakland Raiders? Welcome to The Contingency Plan! 32 pieces focusing on the ranges of outcomes for every team in the NFL. The RotoExperts projections are a tremendous starting spot for your 2019 fantasy research, but like most projections, will only be considered one of the many possible outcomes that exist…

The Contingency Plan: Houston Texans

The Contingency Plan: Houston Texans
Anthony Amico May 29, 2019 1:36PM EDT

What Fantasy Football Questions Exist For The 2019 Houston Texans?

Welcome to The Contingency Plan! 32 pieces focusing on the ranges of outcomes for every team in the NFL. The RotoExperts projections are a tremendous starting spot for your 2019 fantasy research, but like most projections, will only be considered one of the many possible outcomes that exist for each player/team. When compiling rankings, it is best to consider as many possible outcomes as possible, as well as the payoff and probability of those outcomes. Next on our list is the Houston Texans from the AFC South.

The Contingency Plan looks to find those outcomes you may not be considering for 2019. By using a series of “what if” questions, the goal is to help you look a little deeper into each team and, hopefully, uncover some league winners. Some of these questions will exist for most teams, while others will be unique to the specific squad at hand. Today, we cover the Houston Texans.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo AMICO at checkout. Learn More HERE.

What If Will Fuller Plays 16 Games?

Lost in his 15 missed games the past two seasons is that Fuller is one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL. Of all players to see at least 50 targets in that time frame, he ranks ninth in yards per target, and third in touchdown rate. It should not be a surprise that he has had a profound impact on the production of Deshaun Watson.

The Contingency Plan: Houston Texans

When Fuller is off the field, Watson has still found ways to be fantasy viable, particularly on the ground. However, he has been a totally different passer when Fuller is involved, averaging about 1.5 more yards per pass attempt, and pacing 44 passing TDs over 16 games. Only Patrick Mahomes would have scored more points in 2018 than Watson’s 16-game Fuller pace.

It is also worth noting that Fuller himself has been a phenomenal fantasy player. In those same games played with Watson, he is pacing just over 1,100 receiving yards and 16 TDs. Of course, that only factors in a few games of 2018 with Keke Coutee when their health streaks managed to overlap. Still, it would seem that Fuller is likely appropriately priced right now based on his median, but vastly under-priced with respect to his upside.

Phrased differently, you aren’t really getting an injury discount on Fuller, but the outcome of Fuller staying healthy and Coutee being injured again doesn’t appear to be priced in at all.

What If D’Onta Foreman Is Fully Healthy?

Reports have been positive on Foreman since tearing his Achilles last year, and the Texans followed that up by drafting exactly zero RBs in the 2019 NFL Draft. It is fair to wonder if Foreman is completely healthy and ready to take on a legitimate workload.

This is like the vanilla bean of coach speak, but I guess O’Brien could have said Foreman isn’t ready and looks like a one-legged man playing hopscotch. My point is it could be worse.

If he’s ready to go come Week 1, there is a real chance he pushes incumbent starter Lamar Miller for work. Miller is actually coming off of his most efficient rushing season since 2014, but has had to play through some injuries as a Texan, and has consistently lost work to Alfred Blue. Not typically a good sign.

Foreman rushed for over 2,000 yards in his final season at Texas, and is a freakish weight-adjusted athlete. If Miller is banged up again, or proves to be ineffective, it could be Foreman leading a committee. Even if he can just secure the goal-line work for what should be one of the top offenses in football, that would have fantastic best-ball utility. Foreman has been coming off the board in the middle of the 11th round since the start of May on DRAFT.

What If Foreman Isn’t Healthy?

Let’s consider the other side of this coin. Say Foreman isn’t healthy or, even worse, is healthy but not the same player he was pre-injury. That would leave Miller with no competition for touches.

Here are the current names on the Texans RB depth chart behind Foreman:

Buddy Howell
Taiwan Jones
Damarea Crockett
Josh Ferguson
Karan Higdon

The odds of any of these players being even remotely similarly talented as Miller is less than 5%. A one-legged Foreman is honestly likely better than them all. If Foreman cannot go, this is Miller’s backfield.

The Texans have also gone out of their way to really work on this offensive line. They took an offensive lineman in each of the first two rounds of the draft. After ranking last in Pro Football Focus run blocking grades in 2018, and 27th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards, this unit can only really get better. Improvement there will be good for the entire offense, and the run game should benefit greatly.

RBs are coming off the board quickly in 2019, but somehow Miller still lasts to the sixth round. He is the 31st player off the board at his position. Miller has been a trendy “sleeper” type of pick for the past couple of seasons, but this could actually be the year it pays off.

Contingency Plan Archives

Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars

Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Tight End
    May 28, 2019
    Three Impending Fantasy Football Breakout Seasons

    These Three Fantasy Football Breakout Players Are Ready To Shine It is no secret that every year in fantasy football, players emerge who were just barely on the periphery of fantasy football relevance during fantasy football draft season. Last year at this time, you did not know who Phillip Lindsay was, James White was just…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
    May 30, 2019
    Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back

    Five Running Back Fantasy Football Sleepers Finding late round running back fantasy football sleepers is the surest way to attain a league-winning roster. Phillip Lindsay and James Conner were legitimate league-winners at the running back position last year and they barely had ADP’s. Unlike most of our recent content, including the ULTIMATE Guide To Winning…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL ADP VALUES
    June 12, 2019
    Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP

    Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP Winning fantasy football drafts is about beating Average Draft Position. If you are able to beat ADP with your player evaluations, your rosters will be stronger than your league-mates. For this article, I used our Best Ball ADP vs Projections tool to pull some…

  • Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio
    June 11, 2019
    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Check

    Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio Analysis If you are drafting a ship load of Best Ball fantasy football leagues on DRAFT and other sites, doing an analysis of your Best Ball Fantasy Football Portfolio is incredibly important. It’s very possible that you are over or underexposed to a few players relative to what you are…

  • 10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition
    June 10, 2019
    10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition

    10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions: June Edition Much of what we do here at RotoExperts is math-based and centered around probability. What is the range of outcomes for Josh Jacobs career? How likely is Patrick Mahomes to repeat his 2018 MVP season? How much risk is involved in projection Dede Westbrook for a 20% market…

  • June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    June 7, 2019
    June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    June Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Now that we have passed the 100-day mark until the start of the 2019 NFL season, it is time to take another look at dynasty fantasy football rankings. Reports have started to trickle out of organized team activities and we have a better idea of where the health of…

  • The Contingency Plan: Oakland Raiders 3
    June 7, 2019
    The Contingency Plan: Oakland Raiders

    What Fantasy Football Questions Exist For The 2019 Oakland Raiders? Welcome to The Contingency Plan! 32 pieces focusing on the ranges of outcomes for every team in the NFL. The RotoExperts projections are a tremendous starting spot for your 2019 fantasy research, but like most projections, will only be considered one of the many possible outcomes that exist…