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Fantasy NASCAR: Dale Jr. dominates at The Paper Clip

RotoExperts Staff March 27, 2015 11:52AM EDT
*Leads all Active Driver

DR = Driver Rating

ARP = Average Running Position

THE TOP 15

1.  Kevin Harvick: Harvick extended his Top 2 streak to eight straight races dating back to last November. In five starts this season, Harvick has an Average Finish of 1.6, an ARP of 4.0 and he has led 516 laps. There’s really not much more to say here at this point other than future strategy. He’s worth the price in Salary Cap leagues. But when it comes to Tiered/Grouping formats, saving some of Harvick’s starts is worth serious consideration. Yes, he’s on fire now. But from we’ve seen out of the No. 4, he’s consistently fast regardless of how he finishes and he will be taking down races throughout the year. This is a decent week to save starts for the man known as “The Closer.”

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
91.8 14.4 27 1 3 12 0 16.4

364

2.  Jimmie Johnson: Take out a disappointing 32nd place finish at Martinsville Speedway from last October and Johnson has led at least 61 laps in the last seven races. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Johnson leads all drivers in Laps in the Top 15 (8,932) and Average Green Flag Speed (91.700 mph). In an effort to oblige the strategy listed in Harvick’s blurb, Johnson is the guy I’d recommend most in Tiered/Grouping formats.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
122.5* 6.8 26 8* 18 22 3 6.2*

2,746

3.  Jeff Gordon: Gordon is finally getting his legs under him, logging another Top 10 (10th at Fontana) and leading three laps. Gordon leads all drivers in Fastest Laps Run (1,105) and Quality Passes (754). He’s been an absolute Top 5 machine at Martinsville and should be considered the 1B option to Johnson’s 1A in Tiered/Grouping formats.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
119.8 6.6* 44* 8* 28* 35* 7* 6.8

3,723*

4.  Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt Jr. bounced back nicely last weekend with a sixth-place finish at the Auto Club. He’s been on absolute fire at MS the last couple of years, logging one win (October 2014), two Top 5s and three Top 10s with an Average Finish of fourth place. Earnhardt Jr. leads all drivers in Green Flag Passes (1,181). His value can be capitalized on best in Tiered/Grouping leagues.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
101.2 10.6 30 1 12 17 0 12.4

972

5.  Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is getting tougher to figure out each week. In five starts this season he has two Top 5s and three finishes of 23rd or worse. He’s shown flashes of complete dominance at Martinsville in the past with three straight wins (2009-10), but has struggled with up and down performances since. His price in Salary Cap leagues is down a bit, so for the believers this would be a good week to get on the bandwagon.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
110.1 8.8 18 4 9 14 3 8.7

1,221

6.  Brad Keselowski: Keselowski only led one lap last weekend at Fontana, but it was the only one that mattered. The 2014 set at Martinsville was a write off for Fantasy owners (38th and 31st). He’s up and down at this track, but is too talented to doubt. He’s a safe start in all formats this weekend.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
83.4 16.1 10 0 1 5 0 15.2

10

7.  Joey Logano: Top 10 was at it again in Fontana, logging a seventh place finish. The only bit of bad news is that this was the first race all season Logano hasn’t led laps. He dropped two Top 5s in the 2014 set at MS and is as close to a lock for a Top 10 finish as there is out there.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
85.1 15.1 12 0 3 4 0 14.0

99

8.  Matt Kenseth: Despite not having a Top 3 car, Kenseth continually found himself out front at Fontana thanks to excellent pit stops. He was in position to win but a broken axle on his final stop had other plans. Kenseth is getting better and better as the season goes along and remains a quality value in all formats.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
84.9 15.7 30 0 4 11 0 14.7

409

9.  Ryan Newman: Maybe I’m not giving Newman enough respect. He’s logged three consecutive Top 5s and four straight Top 10s. It’s still a tough proposition to slot him ahead of some other A-List drivers, but at the very least he’s trustworthy. There’s still value there in Fantasy NASCAR Salary Cap leagues.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
87.4 15.0 26 1 8 12 3 15.0

194

10.  Martin Truex Jr.: He’s logged five Top 10s to open 2015, with an Average Finish of 6.2. He currently sits third in the Cup standings. The value here is still off the charts in all formats and regardless of history, Truex Jr. is a recommended play across the board.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
68.7 22.2 18 0 2 4 0 23.1

1

11.  Carl Edwards: Has posted back-to-back Top 15s.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
81.0 16.0 21 0 1 5 0 15.9

31

12.  Kasey Kahne: Finished 22nd or worse in his last three MS appearances.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
76.4 20.9 22 0 3 4 1 21.1

31

13.  Austin Dillon: Has never finished worse than 15th at Martinsville.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
70.3 20.8 2 0 0 0 0 13.5

0

14.  Kyle Larson: His 11.4 percent of Laps in the Top 15 will improve this weekend.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
54.1 2.69 3 0 0 0 0 33.0

0

15.  Greg Biffle: He’s clearly in decline and not worth a start right now.

DR ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
71.1 20.3 24 0 0 5 0 19.8 39

 

TOP 10 BEST VALUE PLAYS

1.  Kurt Busch: Busch has been unreal in two races back from suspension, logging two Top 5s. He led 65 laps last weekend and had arguably the best car before ultimately finishing third. There appears to be a deep focus right now, with Busch showing up to the track with setups similar to his teammate, Kevin Harvick. He won this race a year ago in impressive fashion and is worth a start in all formats.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
79.5 17.9 29 2 3 5 1 21.3

421

2.  Jamie McMurray: The 50 percent Top 10 rate is his best at any track.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
85.1 16.1 24 0 1 12 2 17.3

201

3.  Clint Bowyer: Always solid at Martinsville, but not very solid in 2015. Fantasy NASCAR owners need to trust their gut on this one.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
95.0 12.1 18 0 4 12 0 12.1

356

4.  A.J. Allmendinger: The early hot streak may have faded, but a Top 5 and two Top 10s in his last four MS starts say he could heat right back up.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
72.2 20.7 13 0 1 3 0 19.7

26

5.  Paul Menard: Quietly finished fourth at the Auto Club last weekend.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
63.4 22.1 15 0 0 1 0 20.5

0

6.  Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
51.2 28.2 4 0 0 0 0 27.8

0

7.  Aric Almirola

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
66.0 23.2 12 0 1 3 0 23.8

56

8.  Casey Mears

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
64.0 23.3 23 0 0 3 0 23.5

1

9.  Sam Hornish Jr.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
54.4 26.8 7 0 0 0 0 26.1

0

10.  Tony Stewart

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
97.6 11.2 31 3 10 16 3 13.6

1,226

 

TOP 5 SLEEPERS

1.  Chase Elliott: Who doesn’t love some fresh blood? With the C-List and the cheaper Salary Cap options extremely limited, Elliott is worth a gamble. He’s posted some quality results in the XFINITY Series this season with three Top 5s and four Top 10s in his last four races. He also has the benefit of a Rick Hendrick engine and crew chief Kenny Francis (used to run Kasey Kahne’s crew). Elliott is being put in a position to succeed. In the depths of the C-List, it’s all Fantasy NASCAR owners can ask for.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A

2.  David Ragan: He’s got the equipment, but just isn’t that talented behind the wheel. We saw it with Regan Smith earlier this season, and it’s becoming ever apparent that’s what is happening here. He still has Top 20 upside.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
64.5 23.5 17 0 0 2 0 22.0

0

3.  Brett Moffitt: Finished 22nd in place of Brian Vickers at the Auto Club and is another young gun in quality equipment worth a look.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A

4.  Danica Patrick: Posted her second Top 20 of the season (19th at Fontana).

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
62.8 24.8 4 0 0 0 0 23.8

0

5.  David Gilliland: A Top 25 finish is as good as it’s gonna get here.

DR

ARP Starts Wins Top 5s Top 10s Poles Avg. Finish Laps Led
44.4 30.1 17 0 0 0 0 0

4

 

2015 NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Lineup for Martinsville (Salary Cap)

DRIVER

SALARY

Kevin Harvick

$27.50

Jimmie Johnson

$27.00

Martin Truex Jr.

$18.25

A.J. Allmendinger

$17.75

David Ragan

$9.00

TOTAL

$99.50

 

Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing Picks (Tiered/Grouping Format)

 

A-LIST

Jimmie Johnson Jeff Gordon

B-LIST

Martin Truex Jr. Kurt Busch Jamie McMurray

Austin Dillon

C-LIST Chase Elliott David Ragan

 

Home Page Featured Image: NASCAR Media

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