Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy Low Options
While we tend to think of dynasty fantasy football in terms of goals, i.e “I want to win this league this year” or “I want to accumulate better future assets and tank this season”, there is a better way to approach the activity. By turning players (or future draft picks) that are likely to depreciate into players or draft picks that are going to appreciate, you can extend your competition window in any dynasty or devy league. The players in this column are not guys you have to trade the farm for but rather players that I expect both competing and rebuilding fantasy football teams can trade for and expect to have a better stock in 2019.
Any Arizona Cardinals Wide Receiver Not Named Larry Fitzgerald
Those who have played a lot of dynasty fantasy football and really gotten into the math of projecting ranges of outcomes for players know that predicting which rookies will become studs is not an easy task. The 2019 Arizona Cardinals present a plethora of buying opportunities because the market is so uncertain of who will take advantage of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. Andy Isabellla, Christian Kirk, Hakeem Butler, KeeSean Johnson, Trent Sherfield, Ricky Seals-Jone and Caleb Wilson are all prime buy candidates in dynasty. Isabella and Kirk have higher price tags then the rest of this bunch but if Arizona’s offense does what many smart, math-based analysts expect them to do for fantasy, the tags will be even higher in 2020. These are moves that both a competing and rebuilding team can make without issue.
Jason Witten signed with Dallas for the 2019 season after spending the 2018 season in the Monday Night Football booth. That signing has gotten the dynasty fantasy football community off Jarwin’s scent but he is still pretty clearly the tight end of the future in Dallas. Rico Gather is not happening, Geoff Swaim is now in Jacksonville, and his only real future competition is Dalton Schultz. The team seems to value Jarwin higher than Schultz as Schultz was used as a blocker almost twice as often as Jarwin despite Jarwin playing more snaps. I expect Jarwin to lead the Cowboys tight ends in fantasy points in 2019 yet Jarwin is almost a last-round pick in dynasty startups at the moment. It is easy to think of Jarwin as a raw player or strictly developmental but he was actually fifth on the team in targets in 2018! In general, buying tight ends who have shown a little bit of aptitude with playing time who are being treated like non-assets is a +EV move in dynasty leagues.
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There have been a lot of running backs like Ronald Jones in the past. Highly drafted, highly touted by the fantasy football community but an inability to catch passes and pass block kept them off the field and it just never happened for them. However, there have also been plenty of running backs like Jones who didn’t play as rookies and carved out meaningful playing time after that because the running back position can be fairly random in terms of the distribution of playing time. Jones has drawn praise this offseason from head coach Bruce Arians and GM Jason Licht this offseason and while that doesn’t mean much, I would definitely prefer that to downright negative quotes. Tampa Bay didn’t draft or sign another running back as competition for Jones which is the most positive sign an embattled RB like Jones can get. Given that Jones’ upside is 55% of the backfield touches on an explosive, vertical passing offense, paying 110 cents on the dollar for Jones is pretty passable.
Buy the cheapest New England Patriots running back and take your money. We have seen this story play out 20 times before with more names than you can keep straight. LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley, James White, Shane Vereen, Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee were all at one point, the cheapest running back on the Patriots roster in fantasy and also fantasy football relevant. Harris has a few things already going well for him: Sony Michel has not been able to practice due to an ongoing knee condition, Harris has been playing with the first team in minicamp, and he was a top-100 draft pick which historically has a high hit rate. Of all the running backs going after the second-round of dynasty rookie, Harris is by far the best buy and even if your draft is already done, he is another running back who would be worth trading 110 cents on the dollar for.
Corey Davis is a former top-five pick in the NFL draft who is entering his third season in the NFL at only 24 years old. Tennessee has basically been a frigid offensive environment for the two years that Davis has been a Titan, yet has posted 177 targets through two seasons. 112 targets, 891 yards and four touchdowns on a team that threw for only 3,255 yards and 15 non-trick play touchdowns is actually quite solid. We have the Titans projected for a better volume output than 2018 and the addition of A.J Brown and Adam Humphries should actually make the Titans more efficient on offense per play. The chance to buy a former high pick at WR whose team has not soured on him with actual production rarely happens yet the market is not treating Davis like more than a back-end WR2. Buying in dynasty fantasy football is often a matter of taking advantage of inefficient market sentiment and Davis meets this criterion. Young, productive and an offense that projects to be better is a winning combination. If you simply bought every wide receiver that fit this archetype over several years, you would come out way ahead.