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Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP

Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP
Davis Mattek June 12, 2019 2:54PM EDT

Best Projected Fantasy Football ADP Values Versus DRAFT Best Ball ADP

Winning fantasy football drafts is about beating Average Draft Position. If you are able to beat ADP with your player evaluations, your rosters will be stronger than your league-mates. For this article, I used our Best Ball ADP vs Projections tool to pull some of the current best fantasy football ADP values compared to the market. While the ADP referenced in this article comes from DRAFT Best Ball’s, I expect that these ADP’s will not be too far off from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS and other league providers. This list contains players who are being undervalued relative to their peers for a variety of reasons.

Fantasy Football ADP Values From The RotoExperts Projections

D.J Moore +10.1 From ADP

Moore is one of the largest breakout candidates available this season. We have Moore projected for over 100 targets (and I personally think he has upside well beyond that) while also projecting him for a touchdown rate that would be below average for a WR1 with Cam Newton and he is STILL a value at his current ADP. When shopping for a WR2/3 in the middle rounds of your fantasy drafts, you really cannot do better than Moore. He is a stalwart of my current best ball teams.

Sterling Shepard +11.4 From ADP

When an offense loses a player like Odell Beckham, it is generally hard for markets to project where the targets will go. As a combination, we are higher on Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Evan Engram than the market is. Even if the Giants are one of the leagues’ worst five offenses, we can feel confident that their targets are going to be very condensed in these four players.  Our projection for Shepard is also based on the belief that he will split slot work with Golden Tate and not be relegated to a boundary receiver. As such, his 107 targets and 8.1 yards per target numbers from last season seem repeatable as we have him at 101.6 targets and 800.53 receiving yards (while projecting NYG to be worse than league-average at passing).

Austin Hooper +28.9 From ADP

In his third year as a pro, Austin Hooper hit career highs in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns in an offense that really lacks a third true wide receiver. While Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones project for over 250 of the teams total targets, there is still a large portion of the passes from Matt Ryan that are unclaimed. Mohammed Sanu is best left in a tertiary role and Hooper is now a proven, every-down player in the Falcons offense. Locking down targets at the tight end position is difficult to do outside of the three studs at the position (Kelce/Kittle/Ertz) so taking Hooper as the equivalent in the Falcons offense is a solid way to lock down a weekly role in a good offense.

Jameis Winston +51.8 From ADP

Rarely would I ever care to make a note about quarterback Average Draft Position as my advice is generally to stream quarterbacks for weekly management leagues or build correlated stacks in best balls but Winston’s upside is so good that he needs to be noted. Winston is our second-highest projected quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes. Bruce Arians and his vertical-passing offense (and the absence of a capable backup) are a big reason for this. The surrounding talent in Tampa Bay is another. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Justin Watson, Cameron Brate and O.J Howard are about as good of a personnel group as exists in the NFL right now and Winston will have the green light to pass early and often to them.

Nyheim Hines +7.4 From ADP

The Colts are ready to use Nyheim Hines in what was always his natural: half receiver, half running back, full time kick/punt returner. “I would like to personally have more than 1,000 all-purpose yards one way or another” is one of the quotes Hines gave the media during Colts OTA’s and that really is not all that far-fetched. Hines should be the primary complement to Marlon Mack who did most of his fantasy damage in games that the Colts were winning handily (while the converse was true of Hines). While Hines completely disappeared in the playoffs for Jordan Wilkins and Mack, we are expecting Hines to have a valuable pass-catching role this season.

Damien Harris +3.5 From ADP

I expect that as Sony Michel continues to miss Patriots practices with complications of his knee injury, Damien Harris will emerge as one of the best fantasy football ADP values on the market. Rex Burkhead and James White will contribute in the New England Patriots backfield as well but Damien Harris is the best positioned to take on more work from Michel. Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported “that with Michel dealing with unknown injury issues, Harris could challenge him for carries on early downs and earn “a prominent role” having enjoyed a “strong spring”. Buying the cheapest Patriots running back is always a +EV move in weekly management leagues and in DRAFT Best Ball’s.

Jack Doyle +23.1 From ADP

Eric Ebron’s touchdown explosion in 2018 has left Jack Doyle as one the best fantasy football ADP values in 2019. Doyle averaged 4.3 receptions per game in an injury-plagued season last year after recording 108 targets in 2017. While the team did finally sign a competent wide receiver to play opposite of T.Y Hilton, we still project Doyle for a meaningful receiving role in 2019. The overconfidence in Ebron and underconfidence in Doyle and Funchess make the secondary Colts pass-catchers really interesting values in all fantasy football formats in 2019.

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