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    Fantasy Football Impact: Stefon Diggs Traded To Buffalo Bills

    Fantasy Football Impact: Stefon Diggs Traded To Buffalo Bills
    Davis Mattek March 17, 2020 12:05PM EDT

    Fantasy Football Impact: Stefon Diggs Traded To Buffalo Bills

    The fireworks have been fast and furious as the NFL has begun its’ free agency/legal tampering period. The Minnesota Vikings traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs and a 2021 seventh-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for the 22nd pick in this year’s draft, along with a fifth- and sixth-rounder this year and a fourth-rounder in 2021, per the Minnesota Star-Tribune. 

    It had long been rumored that Diggs no longer wanted to be in Minnesota for a variety of reasons. Maybe he didn’t like the weather, maybe he didn’t like the coaches, maybe he didn’t like Kirk Cousins. Who can say? That isn’t why we are here anyway. What we are looking for is the fantasy football impact of Diggs being traded from Minnesota to Buffalo.

    Fantasy Football Impact For Minnesota

    The biggest change in distribution for Minnesota is that Adam Thielen went from being a 23-26% median target share wide receiver to something more like a 25-30% median target share player. The Vikings are almost assuredly going to draft one of the stud rookie wide receivers with the 22nd overall pick that they received from the Bills. Laviska Shenault, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor or perhaps even Henry Ruggs (though the Eagles pick directly before the Vikings) will all be options for Minnesota. Of course, they would love to land Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb but that is essentially impossible given how late in the draft they are selecting. Our projections have given a fairly massive boost to Adam Thielen currently.

    One or more of Olabisi Johnson, Chad Beebe and/or Irv Smith Jr. is also going to get a large bump in snaps and targets. It is mostly unrealistic to expect a rookie wide receiver to come in and immediately supplant Diggs’ role as the primary space creator in the Vikings offense. Johnson and Irv Smith Jr. are legit sleepers in the latter rounds of drafts though they are better candidates in redraft formats and not best ball as their individual ceilings are likely low.

    Fantasy Football Impact For Stefon Diggs In Buffalo

    Well, the one season we had of John Brown being a WR1 was fun while it lasted! Brown had a career-high 115 targets last season; he will be lucky to top 100 this season while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs. The Bills ran the sixth-most rushing plays last season while throwing for the 25th most passes of all NFL teams so Diggs is transitioning from one run-heavy team to another. One weapon in Diggs’ fantasy arsenal is that the Bills are extremely unlikely to find themselves in as many run-friendly game scripts in 2020 as they were in 2019 simply because defensive strength is rarely static year over year.

    This should raise the ceiling for Josh Allen a good bit as the targets he would have dedicated to Cole Beasley/Duke Williams/Robert Foster will now mostly be directed towards Diggs who is, despite what Minnesota might think, one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in the NFL right now. Diggs is not going to project that well at median outcomes because of how run-heavy the Bills project to be but he, Allen and John Brown all have ceilings beyond their median projections and ADP’s because of the threat that the Bills shift more towards league-average in terms of pass-to-run ratio.

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