Marshawn Lynch – FantasyPros ADPs – 13th RB PPR, 12th Standard
I just feel like there are too many red flags to take him as a borderline RB1. Not only is Lynch 31 years old, but he has more than 3,000 carries in his career counting playoffs and regular season. Additionally, in his final season with the Seahawks, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Dating back to 2000, the last running back to average under 4.0 YPC and reach the 1,000-yard mark with the fewest carries was Frank Gore last season, with 263. This feat had been done 32 times since 2000, and 22 times the back had more than 300 carries. I get that the Raiders have a much better O-line than the Seahawks did, but still, we have already heard reports that Lynch could see less than 200 carries this year, which makes sense, as the Raiders likely want to save him for the playoffs. If that is true, I do not think he will break 1,000 yards.
Maybe he is rejuvenated and we will see the Lynch of old. However, to me, he is without a doubt the riskiest pick in the first three rounds and is simply too rich for my blood.
Rob Gronkowski, No. 1 TE PPR and Standard
There are a number of reasons to avoid Gronk this season. Not only is he coming off a second back surgery (he had one in college that forced him to miss his junior year), but in order to live up the value where you draft Gronk, he will need to produce like a Top 10 wide receiver or be worth a Top 10 RB price. That is right, his ADP currently has him slotted as the 19th pick off the board, just ahead of Dez Bryant (WR10) and Todd Gurley (RB10) in PPR leagues. He’s going 21st in non-PPR, which would still make it necessary for him to put up WR1 numbers to match the value you are passing up. I’m not a fan of how my rosters shake out when I use an early pick on a tight end. You could make the case that the upside he gives you at a weaker tight end position is worth it, but add in the injury risk and I simply want to pass. With the injury to Julian Edelman I am higher on Gronk than I was, simply because I think he will see even more targets. However, his ADP will probably increase, and I still am not a fan of taking him, or any tight end for that matter, in the second round, due to roster construction.