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Introducing: The DailyRoto Fantasy Football Rankings and Projection Algorithm

Introducing: The DailyRoto Fantasy Football Rankings and Projection Algorithm
Davis Mattek February 18, 2019 10:17AM EST

The DailyRoto-powered NFL365 Fantasy Football Tools

We’re excited to launch the RotoExperts NFL365 Premium Package with the Daily Roto-powered Fantasy Football Rankings and Projection Algorithm.

As part of the package, you have access to year-round rankings and projections, which will provide you with an edge at any point during the season – whether fantasy draft day is approaching, you’re deciding on off-season keeper trades, or you want to grind some best ball leagues in March!

The DailyRoto Model

Our projections are driven by the same model that our sister site, DailyRoto, has used with success for NFL DFS.

The DailyRoto projections and ranking model is a pure math model that takes a top-down approach, projecting team level baselines and statistics and filling the holes with individual volume and efficiency expectations. The model then projects each player out for 16 games with their individual and team rates used to create the cumulative projection

Advantages

There are numerous advantages to approaching projections and rankings in this manner. Most importantly, our projections are grounded in reality and logic. We know about how often a particular team will throw per game; we also know roughly how many plays a team will run in each game. We can extend that over a 16-game season. We know roughly how those targets will be distributed and how successful those targets will be on average. As a result, the individual projections represent a reasonable range of outcome for all players, and the detail projections for individuals on a team equate to the team level projections.

For example, we are projecting Jameis Winston for 34 passing TDs in 2019. If you add up all of the receiving TDs for the Tampa Bay players, it will net out to 34. This prevents us from wildly over or under-projecting the receiving TDs for Mike Evans, which could happen in a system that is not top down. We can reasonably project Mike Evans to account for around a quarter of the team’s receiving TDs, and, as a result, we find ourselves with a receiving TD projection of 8.6.

Another example of how these projections can be beneficial is the case of Robert Foster where there are a lot of unknowns. Foster came on strong over the second half of the season for the Buffalo Bills, and his role in the offense clearly grew. Projection systems that are based solely on his 13-game statistics from a year ago are bound to under project Foster. Meanwhile, arbitrary player-up projections may be too optimistic if they lean on Fosters’ per game numbers over the second half of the season. We’re able to look at the likely available volume in the Buffalo passing game, assess Foster’s likely role in the offense in terms of volume, and regress his efficiency numbers.

Another advantage to the way our projection system is set up is that it will allow us to make projections fully customizable to subscribers over the summer. When that functionality is introduced (we’re aiming for July for this aspect), subscribers will be able to test out different scenarios. You’ll be able to toggle play calling projections for teams, expected points scored for teams, and individual volume percentages for players.

What if the Seahawks let Russell Wilson throw the ball 35 times a game? What if Mike Evans sees his target share rise to 30 percent with DeSean Jackson leaving Tampa Bay? These are all easily testable scenarios that will allow you to visualize meaningful ranges of outcomes for particular players and the type of environments that would have to occur for players to meet or fail to meet certain projections.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo MATTEK at checkout. Learn More HERE.

Weaknesses

As much as we believe in the DailyRoto model, there are weaknesses in pinning down a specific projection on players for fantasy football rankings.

Some backup running backs may hold more fantasy value as stashed players than running backs with better pure projections because of the context around them and their range of outcomes. We also assume a 16-game season for all players without known injuries and/or suspensions, but some players carry more injury risk than others. In general, there are going to be situations that carry more unknowns than others in terms of projected playing time, especially early in the offseason for fantasy football rankings. For players with known injuries and/or suspensions, we bake in some low-level replacement player value for their missed games to better hone in on their draft day value.

So, how do we account for that?

Two ways. The first way is simple. We have icons attached to certain players with different meanings like:

-Injury Prone

-Zero RB/WR Target

-Long-Term Stash

-Like More/Less Than Projections

-Volatile Playing Time

2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Andy Isabella, UMass 1

And a handful of others exist as well. These icons are clearly visible on both the projections and rankings pages, allowing for some immediate context to be placed around the DailyRoto model projections and rankings.

The second way is that we have integrated the rankings of our two experts – Davis Mattek and Anthony Amico – with the DailyRoto model ranks on our rankings pages. Our experts are able to take the base DailyRoto model projections and then come up with more subjective, nuanced rankings for players. We have also added icons that indicate Mattek/Amico favorites, which are displayed on the projections pages.

When you put it all together, we believe our rankings and projections are highly actionable and the ideal blend of objectivity and subjectivity – allowing you to utilize them year-round to make positive expected value decisions when it comes to your fantasy teams!

UPDATE: Auction Values and Percentages added!

We’ve added auction values and percentages based solely off of our model projections. These auction values are meant to be applied to roughly a 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, and 1 D/ST and take into account positional scarcity in addition to our fantasy point projections. The auction values are based off of a $260 budget, but the auction percentage allows you to apply this to any budget amount.

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