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Jhonattan Vegas an Essential DFS Piece for Canadian Open

Jhonattan Vegas an Essential DFS Piece for Canadian Open
Matt Rumack July 25, 2018 8:32AM EDT

Your Top DFS Picks for the Canadian Open

DailyRoto
Course: Glen Abbey Golf Course (Oakville, Ontario)

Yardage: 7,253 – Par 72

Purse : $6.2 M

Field: 156 Players

*recent Canadian Open Champions

2013 Brandt Snedeker
2014 Tim Clark
2015 Jason Day
2016 Jhonattan Vegas
2017 Jhonattan Vegas

Dustin Johnson ($11,700): Forget the fact that DJ missed the cut at The Open last week. This is a completely different golf course and a completely different vibe this week. Johnson has been the best player overall all year long. This is exactly the type of course that he’ll get right on. Glen Abbey is a course that Johnson can overpower. He’ll most likely be hitting mid-long irons into Par 5s, two-putting for birdies, and perhaps the occasional eagle. Johnson can easily shoot low 60s on multiple days this week, he’s been runner-up at this site twice, and is the obvious favorite to win this week. He has a 14.61% percent chance of winning according to DailyRoto’s win probability model. That’s outrageous, Brooks Koepka is next at 5.89%, nowhere near Johnson.

Bubba Watson ($9,600):  Watson is a guy who can overpower the course. Watson has also finished runner-up at the site in 2015 by one shot. Courses that have suited Bubba’s eye have mostly ended up in wins for him this year, and I think this is another course that just might fit his eye. He’ll have the freedom to go long off the tee and shape shots around the golf course, and just like Dustin Johnson he should dominate the Par 5s.

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500): If I recall correctly, last year most experts couldn’t get over how badly Vegas had been playing coming into the Canadian Open despite being defending champion. Or maybe that was just me. I won’t make that mistake again. It doesn’t matter whether Vegas is playing well or not coming into this event, something about Glen Abbey just works for him. At $7,500, Vegas doesn’t even have to win or even be Top 10 to be valuable this week, but it’s comforting knowing that he certainly can win at the site.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400): Long-hitter..(7th) Check. Gains shots off the tee..(8th) Check. Makes a lot of birdies on Par 5s..(7th) check. Keith Mitchell may have never played at this site, but I think he’ll like it there. I’m stressing the big hitters because of how long-hitter heavy last year’s Top 10 was. Vegas, Woodland, Hagy, Finau, Garrigus, Dustin Johnson, and Chappell were all in the Top 10 last year. Those are all big time hitters off-the-tee. Mitchell has also been one of the more impressive Tour rookies this year with four Top 10s including a seventh place at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago.

Harold Varner III ($7,100): HVIII already had a T23 at this site in 2017, so he’s proven he can have success there. You may not think of the five-foot-nine man, as a long hitter but he’s 18th on Tour in driving distance averaging over 308 yards per poke. Varner is coming into this week off back-to-back Top 10 finishes. He finished in fifth at the Greenbrier, and sixth at the John Deere.  Varner is a Top 25 value play according to DailyRoto’s value optimization tool.

Ricky Barnes ($6,700): Since I spent the big bucks on Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson, I had to sacrifice somewhere, so Ricky Barnes it is. Barnes is my only guy who’s not known to hit it too long, but I’ll tell you what, he likes playing at Glen Abbey. His last four years there, he’s finished T42, T5, T11, T43. That’s four made cuts and two Top 11 finishes from a guy you only need to spend $6,700 on. If Johnson and Bubba do what I expect them to do, then finding a cheapie like Barnes who can sneak a backdoor Top 10 is essential for big payouts in GPPs.

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