Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers Are Fantasy Football Secret Sauce
When using the RotoExperts team-level projections and rankings to draft in Best Ball fantasy football leagues, I noticed a glaring error in the ADP. The market is treating the Miami Dolphins wide receivers like none of them have any fantasy football value. Our team level projections have Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson and Devante Parker all with over 17% of the Dolphins total passing attempts. The highest ADP of any of the three of these players on DRAFT is Kenny Stills at 153.4.
The math behind the average draft position for Stills, Wilson, Devante Parker and even Mike Gesciki just doesn’t make any sense. In 2018, the Dolphins ran the league’s slowest offense and ran the fewest total players of any team in the NFL. Adam Gase’s Dolphins ran only 878 offensive plays! That ludicrously low number still gave 79 targets to Danny Amendola, 64 to Kenny Stills (with six touchdowns), and 35 targets to Albert Wilson in only seven games. Luckily for us, we are not going to be subjected to the same boring/slow Dolphins offense in 2019.
Miami hired Brian Flores to be the head coach, away from the Patriots, and Flores brought in former New England Patriots wide receivers coach Chad O’Shea to be the offensive coordinator. According to the Miami Herald “O’Shea, a Houston native and former college quarterback who quickly chose the coaching route after his college career ended, will get his first opportunity to be a full-time coordinator after 15 years in various roles in the league.” Projecting out offenses with this much uncertainty is really difficult for fantasy football players and that is why the Dolphins pass catchers are being treated this way by the market.
Does it make any sense for Kenyan Drake to be a fifth-round draft pick while all of the primary Miami Dolphins pass catchers are going in the 13th round or later? It does not. The worst passing offense in the NFL last season (the Arizona Cardinals) had two players who averaged over eight PPR points per game not including touchdowns or David Johnson. In 2017, the worst passing offense in football had two players who were flex-worthy in Tarik Cohen and Kendall Wright. The market clearly believes that the Dolphins won’t be a good offensive team in 2019 and they might not be but I posit that at their current prices, it doesn’t matter.
We have Kenny Stills projected for more fantasy points than Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones and Keke Coutee. You can have Kenny Stills for a fraction of the cost of all of those players. Stills has the best efficiency numbers of any Miami Dolphins wide receiver but he is projected for similar volume to Devante Parker and Albert Wilson as well. I understand the fantasy football value of not tying yourselves to bad teams or bad offenses but there is real upside with the Miami Dolphins pass catchers. Ryan Fitzpatrick sustained fantasy value for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson AND the tight ends last year. Josh Rosen might take a leap (though I would probably wager agains that) or the Dolphins might play at closer to a league average pace which would make all of their players per game numbers project better.
The argument is not that these three pass catchers are amazing players or that the Dolphins are ready to take the league by storm. This is simply an error in calculation by the market. It is next to impossible for a passing game to be so bad that it sustains no players who are fantasy viable particularly in Best Ball formats where you don’t have the burden of weekly choice. It is exceedingly likely that one of, if not two, of Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson and DeVante Parker greatly exceed their ADP’s and finish as WR3’s instead of the WR6’s that the market projects.
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