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Sports Grid Model NFL Sports Betting Picks For The Divisional Round NFL Playoffs

Sports Grid Model NFL Sports Betting Picks For The Divisional Round NFL Playoffs
Davis Mattek January 10, 2020 1:46PM EDT

Divisional Round NFL Sports Betting Playoffs SportsGrid Model Picks and Analysis

SportsGrid focuses on data-driven takes that analysts and users should be using to make educated decisions in both the gambling and daily fantasy sports worlds. This week, analyst Ricky Sanders will use the SportsGrid NFL Betting Model to determine the best NFL Sports Betting picks from every Divisional Round game of the playoffs.

Davis Mattek also provided his non-model NFL Sports Betting picks on RotoExperts for this week’s games.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers

Team SG Model Win% Moneyline Vegas Line Over/Under
MIN 28.7% +257 +7 (-109) 44.5o (-110)
SF 70.8% -311 -7 (-110) 44.5u (-110)

Best Bet: MIN +7.0 Vegas Line

Analysis: After beating the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last week, our model gives the Vikings the second highest likelihood of victory in the Divisional Round of all the underdogs. Last week, the Vikings looked like a multi-dimensional offense with Dalvin Cook (MIN), Adam Thielen (MIN) and Stefon Diggs (MIN) all healthy. When all said and done, the Vikings offense outgained the Saints offenses by nearly 40 yards and Thielen looked like the 2018 version of himself catching seven passes for 129-yards. Strangely, of the teams playing this weekend, four of them featured defenses that ranked in the bottom 10 of yards per carry (YPC) allowed in the regular season, with one of those being the 49ers. This will be a battle of two of the top seven defenses in total defense (according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric) and the Vikings now can compete on offense as well. All of those factors lead our model to believe this game should be competitive and 7.0-points it too large of a number to lay for the favored 49ers.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens

Team SG Model Win% Moneyline Vegas Line Over/Under
TEN 15.5% +349 +9.5 (-109) 47o (-110)
BAL 84.3% -435 -9.5 (-109) 47u (-119)

Best Bet: BAL -410 Moneyline and 47.0 Point Under Parlay

Analysis: Laying close to double-digits in the playoffs is not something that overly excites me in any spot so in situations like this one it always makes sense to get created if similarly-minded. Of course, the Ravens are the better team here if judging by regular-season outcomes (and the eye test) but the Titans possess one of the top running backs (RBs) in the league who can help play keep-away from the Ravens offense. Down the stretch, the Titans only won one of their final three games, and that was when the Texans essentially sat all their starters, but the keep-away aspect is what should be focused on here. Only the Ravens and 49ers averaged more yards rushing per game than the Titans so these are two offenses heavily-built on controlling the ball. The best way to defend Lamar Jackson (BAL) is to keep him off the field and the best way for the Titans to do so is to grind first downs with NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry (TEN). Last week, all four unders hit (which our model was on) and the model is back on the unders this week. While some of the other games feature teams that want to air it out, the run-heavy style of this game creates a perfect environment for the under.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Team SG Model Win% Moneyline Vegas Line Over/Under
HOU 16.7% +361 +9.5 (-110) 51o (-110)
KC 83.1% -450 -9.5 (-109) 51u (-110)

Best Bet: HOU +9.5

Analysis:

Of all the games this weekend, this is the only game in which the SportsGrid model does not have a five-star selection beyond the moneyline. In fact, the model rates the under in all three other games as its highest confidence, and this game happens to be the exception. While the model views the Chiefs as overwhelming favorites to win the game, the 9.5-points is too high, and the model is not taking a stand on that line. Patrick Mahomes (KC) is one of the best quarterbacks (QBs) in the entire league but he quietly only threw multiple touchdowns (TDs) in two of his final six games this year while Deshaun Watson (HOU) led the team to win four of his final five games of the season. For books that offer buying points, buying the half point would only make this bet slightly safer, as a full TD and field goal (FG) cushion is massive (especially in the playoffs). With Watson active this year, the Texans lost just two games by more than a TD (at the Ravens and versus the Broncos).

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers

Team SG Model Win% Moneyline Vegas Line Over/Under
SEA 33.1% +182 +4.5 (-111) 47o (-110)
GB 67.1% -214 -4.5 (-108) 47u (-110)

Best Bet: 47.0 Point Under

Analysis:

Last week, facing an Eagles defense that ranked 12th in DVOA during the regular season, the Seahawks mustered 382 yards of total offense, but that was with Russell Wilson (SEA) leading the team in both rushing and passing. No Chris Carson (SEA) led to the team’s RBs averaging slightly over 1.1 YPC and the same duo of Travis Homer (SEA) and Marshawn Lynch (SEA) is expected to be deployed this week. Although the Packers defense fared worse than the Eagles against the run over the course of the season, the team allowed a season-low 4.4 YPC in the month of December and a season-low two rushing TDs. If the Seahawks are not able to establish the run, they will have to rely heavily on the pass versus a unit that ranked as a top 10 passing defense according to DVOA. The Packers offense also looked like a shell of its former self this year as the team ranked 18th in total offense and averaged the 15th most points per game (23.5). Furthermore, every wide receiver (WR) in this game features a negative individual matchup other than Davante Adams (GB), per Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) WR/cornerback (CB) matchup chart. While this may not be an “offensive struggle” in the truest sense, 47.0-points seems too high, and the model 100-percent agrees.

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