Popular Features

  • Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
    March 4, 2020
    Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings With the NFL scouting combine completed, it is time to get down to the business of re-ranking all of the incoming dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings with new information. No, combine information is not the end-all be-all of scouting and in fact, can create more noise than helpful…

  • 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
    March 9, 2020
    2020 Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

    2020 Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings After getting through the process of ranking the incoming rookies, it is time to start more seriously thinking about how the incoming players change the construction of dynasty fantasy football rankings. The QB carousel is not quite done spinning yet and won’t until Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Jameis…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Start Up Targets
    March 5, 2020
    Five Mid-Round Targets In Dynasty Fantasy Football Start Up Drafts

    Five Mid-Round Targets In Dynasty Fantasy Football Start-Up Drafts Most of the dynasty fantasy football content we have been churning out this offseason has been about the incoming rookies and then which veterans are good “buys” or “sells”. Obviously we have dynasty fantasy football rankings for startup drafts but with the actual NFL draft approaching and…

  • Chase Claypool NFL Draft
    March 6, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Claypool, Notre Dame

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Claypool, Notre Dame Now that the NFL Scouting Combine has taken place, we can have a much better sense of who players are and where they will be drafted. Draft position ends up being the most important factor in ranking incoming rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes and the…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU
    March 16, 2020
    The Top Machine Learning WR Prospect Will Surprise You

    What Can Machine Learning Tell Us About WR Prospects? One of my favorite parts of draft season is trying to model the incoming prospects. This year, I wanted to try something new, so I dove into the world of machine learning models. Using machine learning to detail the value of a WR prospect is very…

  • NFL RB Prospect Machine Learning
    March 23, 2020
    The 2020 Machine Learning NFL RB Prospect Model

    What Can Machine Learning Tell Us About NFL RB Prospects? Last week, I released some machine learning model results that attempted to predict WR success. This week, I wanted to do the same for NFL RB Prospects. Evaluating an RB prospect before the NFL draft requires careful examination as draft capital is a huge part…

  • Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston
    March 3, 2020
    Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston

    Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston I get it. You don’t like Jameis Winston. He throws too many interceptions, he stole crab legs while he was in college and he might not be a very nice person. His head coach from 2019, when he lead the league in passing yards, also seems to…

  • Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons
    March 20, 2020
    Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons

    Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons With the news that Todd Gurley was released from the Los Angeles Rams for salary cap (and let us be honest, performance) reasons, Twitter immediately lit up with the speculation of where Gurley might go. Even if Gurley was at his worst last season, averaging 3.8…

  • Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats
    March 13, 2020
    Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats

    Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats The lifeblood of Superflex fantasy football leagues are cheap(er) secondary quarterbacks that are essentially an afterthought in “standard” leagues. We have talked often on the SportsGrid Fantasy Football podcast and in articles here on RX about how fun we believe Superflex fantasy football dynasty leagues…

  • Chase Claypool NFL Draft
    February 28, 2020
    NFL Combine Winners: Wide Receivers And Tight Ends

    NFL Combine Winners: Wide Receivers And Tight Ends It is no secret that the NFL combine matters. We can whine about examples where it leads to false positives or negatives but holistically, the combine matters. NFL teams care and so should you. Now, does having a BAD combine disqualify a player from being good? It…

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round
Davis Mattek January 6, 2020 5:01PM EDT

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

Last week, we ran through Arturo Galletti’s NFL Futures sports betting sims and identified a few key bets. Unfortunately, the key that we latched on to was the New Orleans Saints effectively being the best team in the NFC but having to play a game on Wild Card Weekend. Had the Saints beaten the Vikings, we expect that they would probably be the favorite in the conference. With the added variance of playing that extra game, however, it was a situation where the numbers were correct but Murphy’s law intervened. Our look at the NFL Futures sports betting market is much different this week as we have fewer bets to recommend given the lack of strength on the NFC side of the bracket and the concentrated strength at the top of the AFC bracket.

Updated NFL Futures Simulations

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ravens Hold Steady

While the Titans being the Patriots was an “upset”, it had essentially no impact on the NFL Futures sports betting markets at all. The Ravens are +200 to win the Super Bowl and an absurd -140 to win the AFC conference championship. Last time, we talked about how the Ravens were dominant bets in both of these markets but at these prices, well, we hope that you bet it last week. I prefer (and the simulations) the Kansas City Chiefs at +180 for wagers on AFC teams. The Ravens are clearly better than the Chiefs by most advanced analytics processes (and even some very simple ones like “who scored the most points over the regular season”) as DVOA and expected points have Baltimore as the best team in the NFL.

However, the shorter and shorter the prices get for Baltimore, you are just asking for trouble. Before a down of the playoffs was played, the Ravens were a great SB bet. They are still probably an elite bet right now but we have the question of “wouldn’t it just be better to make shorter-term wagers at similar odds” and for me, that answer is yes. Now, if KC somehow loses to Houston this weekend, you are going to be kicking yourself for not having a Baltimore ticket but also, we told you to bet the Ravens last week!

Vikings Prices

Given that we just saw 1) the Vikings beat what was the strongest DVOA/Yards per play NFC team in the playoffs and 2) the flattening of the NFC market after that defeat, I am finding myself interested in betting on the Vikings this upcoming week and for the division at +800. The Seahawks are also playing on the road at Green Bay and while we think the Packers are a mostly fraudulent NFL team, the overall market does not. They are being treated like a real 13-3 team with really good players and an elite quarterback when that just isn’t what they are. DVOA and yards per play have Minnesota as a better team than Green Bay which is really something considering their respective seedings. Really, the idea that a team that has already won a playoff game and has +EV players at almost all important positions should be +1800 for the SuperBowl and +800 to win their next two games is probably a little light even if it isn’t a short term winner.

Consolidation Of Power

Here is some math for the folks: 22.2%+33.3%+22.2%=77.7%. That is the combined Super Bowl odds of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City and San Francisco 49ers as set by the markets available on DraftKings and Fanduel right. So think about that: that implies that the “field”, as it were, wins the Super Bowl less than 25% of the time. There are a few things you can do with that information. The first would be to look at some specialized markets that offer perhaps these three teams vs the field, the AFC vs the NFC (over 55% of the SB equity is in the AFC as determined by the markets and our simulations) for SB winner and also for player-specific props (i.e Kittle receiving yards, Lamar rushing yards, Damien Williams receiving yards). There is always an inefficient market to be found and these odds should help inform some of your decisions in other playoff-specific markets.

Popular Features

  • Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
    March 4, 2020
    Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Post-Combine 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings With the NFL scouting combine completed, it is time to get down to the business of re-ranking all of the incoming dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings with new information. No, combine information is not the end-all be-all of scouting and in fact, can create more noise than helpful…

  • 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
    March 9, 2020
    2020 Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

    2020 Post-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings After getting through the process of ranking the incoming rookies, it is time to start more seriously thinking about how the incoming players change the construction of dynasty fantasy football rankings. The QB carousel is not quite done spinning yet and won’t until Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Jameis…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Start Up Targets
    March 5, 2020
    Five Mid-Round Targets In Dynasty Fantasy Football Start Up Drafts

    Five Mid-Round Targets In Dynasty Fantasy Football Start-Up Drafts Most of the dynasty fantasy football content we have been churning out this offseason has been about the incoming rookies and then which veterans are good “buys” or “sells”. Obviously we have dynasty fantasy football rankings for startup drafts but with the actual NFL draft approaching and…

  • Chase Claypool NFL Draft
    March 6, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Claypool, Notre Dame

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Claypool, Notre Dame Now that the NFL Scouting Combine has taken place, we can have a much better sense of who players are and where they will be drafted. Draft position ends up being the most important factor in ranking incoming rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes and the…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU
    March 16, 2020
    The Top Machine Learning WR Prospect Will Surprise You

    What Can Machine Learning Tell Us About WR Prospects? One of my favorite parts of draft season is trying to model the incoming prospects. This year, I wanted to try something new, so I dove into the world of machine learning models. Using machine learning to detail the value of a WR prospect is very…

  • NFL RB Prospect Machine Learning
    March 23, 2020
    The 2020 Machine Learning NFL RB Prospect Model

    What Can Machine Learning Tell Us About NFL RB Prospects? Last week, I released some machine learning model results that attempted to predict WR success. This week, I wanted to do the same for NFL RB Prospects. Evaluating an RB prospect before the NFL draft requires careful examination as draft capital is a huge part…

  • Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston
    March 3, 2020
    Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston

    Why You Are Too Low On Jameis Winston I get it. You don’t like Jameis Winston. He throws too many interceptions, he stole crab legs while he was in college and he might not be a very nice person. His head coach from 2019, when he lead the league in passing yards, also seems to…

  • Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons
    March 20, 2020
    Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons

    Fantasy Football Impact: Todd Gurley Signs With Atlanta Falcons With the news that Todd Gurley was released from the Los Angeles Rams for salary cap (and let us be honest, performance) reasons, Twitter immediately lit up with the speculation of where Gurley might go. Even if Gurley was at his worst last season, averaging 3.8…

  • Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats
    March 13, 2020
    Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats

    Three Quarterbacks To Target In ALL Superflex Fantasy Football Formats The lifeblood of Superflex fantasy football leagues are cheap(er) secondary quarterbacks that are essentially an afterthought in “standard” leagues. We have talked often on the SportsGrid Fantasy Football podcast and in articles here on RX about how fun we believe Superflex fantasy football dynasty leagues…

  • Chase Claypool NFL Draft
    February 28, 2020
    NFL Combine Winners: Wide Receivers And Tight Ends

    NFL Combine Winners: Wide Receivers And Tight Ends It is no secret that the NFL combine matters. We can whine about examples where it leads to false positives or negatives but holistically, the combine matters. NFL teams care and so should you. Now, does having a BAD combine disqualify a player from being good? It…