Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

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  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round
Davis Mattek January 6, 2020 5:01PM EST

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

Last week, we ran through Arturo Galletti’s NFL Futures sports betting sims and identified a few key bets. Unfortunately, the key that we latched on to was the New Orleans Saints effectively being the best team in the NFC but having to play a game on Wild Card Weekend. Had the Saints beaten the Vikings, we expect that they would probably be the favorite in the conference. With the added variance of playing that extra game, however, it was a situation where the numbers were correct but Murphy’s law intervened. Our look at the NFL Futures sports betting market is much different this week as we have fewer bets to recommend given the lack of strength on the NFC side of the bracket and the concentrated strength at the top of the AFC bracket.

Updated NFL Futures Simulations

Updated NFL Futures Sports Betting Analysis After The Wildcard Round

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ravens Hold Steady

While the Titans being the Patriots was an “upset”, it had essentially no impact on the NFL Futures sports betting markets at all. The Ravens are +200 to win the Super Bowl and an absurd -140 to win the AFC conference championship. Last time, we talked about how the Ravens were dominant bets in both of these markets but at these prices, well, we hope that you bet it last week. I prefer (and the simulations) the Kansas City Chiefs at +180 for wagers on AFC teams. The Ravens are clearly better than the Chiefs by most advanced analytics processes (and even some very simple ones like “who scored the most points over the regular season”) as DVOA and expected points have Baltimore as the best team in the NFL.

However, the shorter and shorter the prices get for Baltimore, you are just asking for trouble. Before a down of the playoffs was played, the Ravens were a great SB bet. They are still probably an elite bet right now but we have the question of “wouldn’t it just be better to make shorter-term wagers at similar odds” and for me, that answer is yes. Now, if KC somehow loses to Houston this weekend, you are going to be kicking yourself for not having a Baltimore ticket but also, we told you to bet the Ravens last week!

Vikings Prices

Given that we just saw 1) the Vikings beat what was the strongest DVOA/Yards per play NFC team in the playoffs and 2) the flattening of the NFC market after that defeat, I am finding myself interested in betting on the Vikings this upcoming week and for the division at +800. The Seahawks are also playing on the road at Green Bay and while we think the Packers are a mostly fraudulent NFL team, the overall market does not. They are being treated like a real 13-3 team with really good players and an elite quarterback when that just isn’t what they are. DVOA and yards per play have Minnesota as a better team than Green Bay which is really something considering their respective seedings. Really, the idea that a team that has already won a playoff game and has +EV players at almost all important positions should be +1800 for the SuperBowl and +800 to win their next two games is probably a little light even if it isn’t a short term winner.

Consolidation Of Power

Here is some math for the folks: 22.2%+33.3%+22.2%=77.7%. That is the combined Super Bowl odds of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City and San Francisco 49ers as set by the markets available on DraftKings and Fanduel right. So think about that: that implies that the “field”, as it were, wins the Super Bowl less than 25% of the time. There are a few things you can do with that information. The first would be to look at some specialized markets that offer perhaps these three teams vs the field, the AFC vs the NFC (over 55% of the SB equity is in the AFC as determined by the markets and our simulations) for SB winner and also for player-specific props (i.e Kittle receiving yards, Lamar rushing yards, Damien Williams receiving yards). There is always an inefficient market to be found and these odds should help inform some of your decisions in other playoff-specific markets.

Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…