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    Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

    Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting
    Davis Mattek January 14, 2020 2:43PM EDT

    Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

    To say that these playoffs have been predictable would be a lie. Obviously, this is the entire nature of NFL sports betting. The betting public is very confident in certain outcomes (and so was our modeling here at SportsGrid), particularly that Baltimore and New Orleans would be the representatives of the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens suffered one of the most improbable and catastrophic playoff losses in recent playoff memory and the Saints went down a very mediocre Vikings team the week before. Those defeats really impacted the NFL sports betting futures market in a meaningful way; if you had Chiefs futures from the pre-season or even at the start of the playoffs, those tickets have appreciated rapidly.

    Super Bowl Matchup Simulations

    Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    As you can see, far and away the most likely scenario is that we get a Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl. It is not, by any means, a lock but it accounts for almost 50% of the available probability. So what are the ways you could profit off of that? Depending on your book, you might be able to bet San Francisco/Kansas City at plus money (meaning you could bet that matchup at +110 or better) though that will not be a popular bet at the books. I think perhaps the most interesting angle would be to wager on Packers vs Titans if you think that either of the underdogs is a good bet. At the Fanduel Sportsbook, you can wager on the Packers vs Titans Super Bowl at +1000. That is not an angle that I would personally take as there isn’t a power that could compel me to wager against the Kansas City Chiefs but there are certainly those out there who would be looking for a way to short them.

    Full NFL Sports Betting Playoff Simulations

    Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting 1

    Allow me for the moment, to disagree with the model. There are highlighted in Arturo Galletti’s NFL playoff simulations, three different wagers. The Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +140, the Titans to beat the Chiefs on the road at +300 and the Packers to beat the 49ers on Sunday at +275. On the surface, they all seem like defensible wagers (and the only one that I think is outright bad is wagering on the Titans to beat Kansas City). If you bet 100 dollars on KC at +140, 100 on the Titans +300 and on the Packers +275, you are only getting your money back in a very narrow subset of outcomes. For example, instead of betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl AND the Titans to beat the Chiefs, you could just make one wager and have it be the AFC -122 (at the FD Sportsbook) over the NFC in the Super Bowl.

    The last NFL Sports Betting futures wager of the year that I am going to bet myself (did it as I was writing this article) and that I am going to publicly suggest as a solid wager is the Kansas City Chiefs +140. Personally, I do not think that a Titans team that has yet to top 200 passing yards for the entire playoffs is going to be able to handle a road game against the best offense in the playoffs. The Chiefs are fresh off of scoring 51 points last week and have been over 26 points in all but one of Patrick Mahomes’ career starts. The Titans actually scored 35 points against the Chiefs earlier in the regular so I am not implying it is IMPOSSIBLE that the Titans win this game but I will be wagering on KC in the AFC Conference Championship game. If you are already wagering on KC in the game against the Titans, it is a small parlay-style bet to also bet on them to beat either the 49ers or Packers in the Super Bowl.

     

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