Popular Features

  • Ranking the NFL Offenses for Fantasy Purposes
    February 24, 2020
    Initial 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Two Players You Are Way Too Low On

    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings The Super Bowl was three weeks ago, meaning there hasn’t been NFL football played in almost a month. The thing about dynasty fantasy football, however, is that it never sleeps. Never. This especially applies to dynasty fantasy football, which is a complete 12-month project embarked upon every year. Right now…

  • 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    February 3, 2020
    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings The 2019-20 football season is finally past us. The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Damien Williams proved that Kareem Hunt never mattered and…now we are on to winning dynasty fantasy football titles in 2020. With a sensational rookie class including a stud quarterback and multiple star wide receivers,…

  • Don't Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson
    February 20, 2020
    Don’t Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson

    Don’t Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson Owning Lamar Jackson in 2019 was a great experience; he was the main player we told you last year to draft to win your league! Owning Patrick Mahomes in 2018 was an equally joyous experience. Finding breakout quarterback seasons in the later round of your redraft…

  • What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette
    February 13, 2020
    What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette

    What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette I would not be surprised if you clicked this article and expected for the advice to be simple on Leonard Fournette: FADE. If that is the mindset you have with Fournette, I get it. As I was thinking about fantasy football in 2020, I realized,…

  • Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
    February 21, 2020
    Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

    Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers We are in a rather transitionary time in fantasy football compared to the stasis that has existed for the last 10 years or so. Some of the biggest names at the quarterback position are retiring or entering their post-peak years. There is hardly any…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
    February 5, 2020
    CeeDee Lamb Tops the Initial 2020 Wide Receiver Prospect Model

    Which 2020 Wide Receiver Prospects Have the Best Odds for Success? Last year at RotoExperts, I released the model that I use to evaluate wide receiver prospects. I’ll be doing the same thing again this year, with updates every so often as we lead up to the Draft. The objective of all of my prospect…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D'Andre Swift, Georgia
    February 4, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D’Andre Swift, Georgia

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D’Andre Swift, Georgia When D’Andre Swift started his final season at Georgia, the dynasty fantasy football community expected him to be great. He was ranked as the consensus top overall player in “developmental” leagues (which are dynasty leagues in which you can already draft college players. Georgia’s running backs…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
    January 31, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not going to get very much pub. Right or wrong, he wasn’t the engine that made LSU’s national championship offense run. That was Joe Burrow with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall Jr. Helaire is not in the same tier of running back…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL HIT RATES
    January 30, 2020
    2019 Fantasy Football Hit Rates: Did ZeroRB Die?

    2019 Fantasy Football Hit Rates: Did ZeroRB Die? 2019 felt like a unique fantasy football season…but was it? People almost always feel that way but the real way to test this is to look at fantasy football hit rates from the year to see how “wild” things actually got. Comparing the accuracy of the fantasy football…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU
    February 17, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU If you say to me that you know who and what Justin Jefferson is, then I know that you are a liar. Perhaps one of the hardest things to account for in prospects is when their context drastically changes in the middle of their careers. There is…

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting
Davis Mattek January 14, 2020 2:43PM EST

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

To say that these playoffs have been predictable would be a lie. Obviously, this is the entire nature of NFL sports betting. The betting public is very confident in certain outcomes (and so was our modeling here at SportsGrid), particularly that Baltimore and New Orleans would be the representatives of the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens suffered one of the most improbable and catastrophic playoff losses in recent playoff memory and the Saints went down a very mediocre Vikings team the week before. Those defeats really impacted the NFL sports betting futures market in a meaningful way; if you had Chiefs futures from the pre-season or even at the start of the playoffs, those tickets have appreciated rapidly.

Super Bowl Matchup Simulations

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, far and away the most likely scenario is that we get a Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl. It is not, by any means, a lock but it accounts for almost 50% of the available probability. So what are the ways you could profit off of that? Depending on your book, you might be able to bet San Francisco/Kansas City at plus money (meaning you could bet that matchup at +110 or better) though that will not be a popular bet at the books. I think perhaps the most interesting angle would be to wager on Packers vs Titans if you think that either of the underdogs is a good bet. At the Fanduel Sportsbook, you can wager on the Packers vs Titans Super Bowl at +1000. That is not an angle that I would personally take as there isn’t a power that could compel me to wager against the Kansas City Chiefs but there are certainly those out there who would be looking for a way to short them.

Full NFL Sports Betting Playoff Simulations

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting 1

Allow me for the moment, to disagree with the model. There are highlighted in Arturo Galletti’s NFL playoff simulations, three different wagers. The Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +140, the Titans to beat the Chiefs on the road at +300 and the Packers to beat the 49ers on Sunday at +275. On the surface, they all seem like defensible wagers (and the only one that I think is outright bad is wagering on the Titans to beat Kansas City). If you bet 100 dollars on KC at +140, 100 on the Titans +300 and on the Packers +275, you are only getting your money back in a very narrow subset of outcomes. For example, instead of betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl AND the Titans to beat the Chiefs, you could just make one wager and have it be the AFC -122 (at the FD Sportsbook) over the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The last NFL Sports Betting futures wager of the year that I am going to bet myself (did it as I was writing this article) and that I am going to publicly suggest as a solid wager is the Kansas City Chiefs +140. Personally, I do not think that a Titans team that has yet to top 200 passing yards for the entire playoffs is going to be able to handle a road game against the best offense in the playoffs. The Chiefs are fresh off of scoring 51 points last week and have been over 26 points in all but one of Patrick Mahomes’ career starts. The Titans actually scored 35 points against the Chiefs earlier in the regular so I am not implying it is IMPOSSIBLE that the Titans win this game but I will be wagering on KC in the AFC Conference Championship game. If you are already wagering on KC in the game against the Titans, it is a small parlay-style bet to also bet on them to beat either the 49ers or Packers in the Super Bowl.

 

Popular Features

  • Ranking the NFL Offenses for Fantasy Purposes
    February 24, 2020
    Initial 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Two Players You Are Way Too Low On

    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings The Super Bowl was three weeks ago, meaning there hasn’t been NFL football played in almost a month. The thing about dynasty fantasy football, however, is that it never sleeps. Never. This especially applies to dynasty fantasy football, which is a complete 12-month project embarked upon every year. Right now…

  • 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    February 3, 2020
    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

    2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings The 2019-20 football season is finally past us. The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Damien Williams proved that Kareem Hunt never mattered and…now we are on to winning dynasty fantasy football titles in 2020. With a sensational rookie class including a stud quarterback and multiple star wide receivers,…

  • Don't Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson
    February 20, 2020
    Don’t Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson

    Don’t Draft Lamar Jackson: Draft The NEXT Lamar Jackson Owning Lamar Jackson in 2019 was a great experience; he was the main player we told you last year to draft to win your league! Owning Patrick Mahomes in 2018 was an equally joyous experience. Finding breakout quarterback seasons in the later round of your redraft…

  • What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette
    February 13, 2020
    What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette

    What Smart Fantasy Football Players Should Do With Leonard Fournette I would not be surprised if you clicked this article and expected for the advice to be simple on Leonard Fournette: FADE. If that is the mindset you have with Fournette, I get it. As I was thinking about fantasy football in 2020, I realized,…

  • Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
    February 21, 2020
    Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

    Three Candidates To Be The Next Great Fantasy Football Wide Receivers We are in a rather transitionary time in fantasy football compared to the stasis that has existed for the last 10 years or so. Some of the biggest names at the quarterback position are retiring or entering their post-peak years. There is hardly any…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
    February 5, 2020
    CeeDee Lamb Tops the Initial 2020 Wide Receiver Prospect Model

    Which 2020 Wide Receiver Prospects Have the Best Odds for Success? Last year at RotoExperts, I released the model that I use to evaluate wide receiver prospects. I’ll be doing the same thing again this year, with updates every so often as we lead up to the Draft. The objective of all of my prospect…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D'Andre Swift, Georgia
    February 4, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D’Andre Swift, Georgia

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: D’Andre Swift, Georgia When D’Andre Swift started his final season at Georgia, the dynasty fantasy football community expected him to be great. He was ranked as the consensus top overall player in “developmental” leagues (which are dynasty leagues in which you can already draft college players. Georgia’s running backs…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
    January 31, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not going to get very much pub. Right or wrong, he wasn’t the engine that made LSU’s national championship offense run. That was Joe Burrow with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall Jr. Helaire is not in the same tier of running back…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL HIT RATES
    January 30, 2020
    2019 Fantasy Football Hit Rates: Did ZeroRB Die?

    2019 Fantasy Football Hit Rates: Did ZeroRB Die? 2019 felt like a unique fantasy football season…but was it? People almost always feel that way but the real way to test this is to look at fantasy football hit rates from the year to see how “wild” things actually got. Comparing the accuracy of the fantasy football…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU
    February 17, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Justin Jefferson, LSU If you say to me that you know who and what Justin Jefferson is, then I know that you are a liar. Perhaps one of the hardest things to account for in prospects is when their context drastically changes in the middle of their careers. There is…