Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting
Davis Mattek January 14, 2020 2:43PM EST

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

To say that these playoffs have been predictable would be a lie. Obviously, this is the entire nature of NFL sports betting. The betting public is very confident in certain outcomes (and so was our modeling here at SportsGrid), particularly that Baltimore and New Orleans would be the representatives of the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl. The Ravens suffered one of the most improbable and catastrophic playoff losses in recent playoff memory and the Saints went down a very mediocre Vikings team the week before. Those defeats really impacted the NFL sports betting futures market in a meaningful way; if you had Chiefs futures from the pre-season or even at the start of the playoffs, those tickets have appreciated rapidly.

Super Bowl Matchup Simulations

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, far and away the most likely scenario is that we get a Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl. It is not, by any means, a lock but it accounts for almost 50% of the available probability. So what are the ways you could profit off of that? Depending on your book, you might be able to bet San Francisco/Kansas City at plus money (meaning you could bet that matchup at +110 or better) though that will not be a popular bet at the books. I think perhaps the most interesting angle would be to wager on Packers vs Titans if you think that either of the underdogs is a good bet. At the Fanduel Sportsbook, you can wager on the Packers vs Titans Super Bowl at +1000. That is not an angle that I would personally take as there isn’t a power that could compel me to wager against the Kansas City Chiefs but there are certainly those out there who would be looking for a way to short them.

Full NFL Sports Betting Playoff Simulations

Simulating The NFL Conference Championships And Super Bowl For NFL Sports Betting 1

Allow me for the moment, to disagree with the model. There are highlighted in Arturo Galletti’s NFL playoff simulations, three different wagers. The Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +140, the Titans to beat the Chiefs on the road at +300 and the Packers to beat the 49ers on Sunday at +275. On the surface, they all seem like defensible wagers (and the only one that I think is outright bad is wagering on the Titans to beat Kansas City). If you bet 100 dollars on KC at +140, 100 on the Titans +300 and on the Packers +275, you are only getting your money back in a very narrow subset of outcomes. For example, instead of betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl AND the Titans to beat the Chiefs, you could just make one wager and have it be the AFC -122 (at the FD Sportsbook) over the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The last NFL Sports Betting futures wager of the year that I am going to bet myself (did it as I was writing this article) and that I am going to publicly suggest as a solid wager is the Kansas City Chiefs +140. Personally, I do not think that a Titans team that has yet to top 200 passing yards for the entire playoffs is going to be able to handle a road game against the best offense in the playoffs. The Chiefs are fresh off of scoring 51 points last week and have been over 26 points in all but one of Patrick Mahomes’ career starts. The Titans actually scored 35 points against the Chiefs earlier in the regular so I am not implying it is IMPOSSIBLE that the Titans win this game but I will be wagering on KC in the AFC Conference Championship game. If you are already wagering on KC in the game against the Titans, it is a small parlay-style bet to also bet on them to beat either the 49ers or Packers in the Super Bowl.

 

Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…