Here is the King’s early Fantasy look ahead to Week Four, with some betting and DFS tips sprinkled in.
The Broncos host the league’s worst pass defense on Monday night in Week Four when they play the Chiefs in Denver. Case Keenum, though, has not thrown a TD pass since the opener, and he has thrown five interceptions. The journeyman type is predictably falling back to earth, but he should make a respectable one-week streamer this time, especially if you lost Jimmy Garoppolo. Expect a line much like Week One against Seattle, when he threw three TDs and three INTs. Denver’s disappointing pass defense also ranks 24th in the league, so Chiefs-Broncos is looking like a shootout, with an early over/under of 56.
Tom Brady is going to rebound in a big way in Week Four, so the time to buy low on him is now. He should have Josh Gordon active for the first time, and faces the Dolphins, who have allowed the second-most passing yards among AFC teams. The following week, he will get Julian Edelman back.
The Lions actually have the best pass defense in the league so far, and look like a good defensive stream for Week Four against Dallas. The Cowboys, back at home, however, should get back to their preferred method of running the ball and keeping the score low. Dallas is fifth in pass defense. I would not expect much upside from Matthew Stafford next week and some of the WRs may underperform. I say the Lions crash coming off their high of a victory over New England. I am taking the under (43.5) and the Cowboys, who are favored by three. Dallas will win a lower-scoring affair.
The Falcons have the league’s 27th-ranked pass defense, and they square off against the Bengals, who have the league’s 26th-ranked pass defense. This should be a good game for DFS stacks, and it will soar past the early over/under of 51.5. Andy Dalton is a viable play if you lost Garoppolo, Tyler Boyd is a must-start, and John Ross will be a DFS play. There will be a lot of Falcons stacks this week, and I will go with Calvin Ridley to score again.
The Houston pass defense has allowed seven TD passes so far, and Andrew Luck should be good for at least two scoring tosses even if he is not going deep. The Colts have no running game to count on and their defense will give them good field position, as the unit is playing better than expected. I would expect Eric Ebron to redeem himself and score after failing to cash in more than once in Week Three. The Colts have allowed just three TD passes, so this may be another disappointing day for DeShaun Watson. The Colts have an AFC-high 10 sacks and face what may be the league’s worst offensive line. I will take the under (47.5) and I like the Colts as favorites (-2.5).
Josh Rosen will make his NFL debut at Seattle this week and it won’t be an easy assignment. The Seahawks may be down to only one original member of the Legion of Boom, but Earl Thomas is leading a pass defense that has registered an NFL-high seven interceptions, three by the free safety so far. The Cardinals are allowing 131.3 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league, so Chris Carson will be worth a flex start. Seattle is allowing 132.7, though, 30th in the league, so this can be a good rebound spot for David Johnson. I’d stream the Seattle defense vs. the rookie, though.
The Chargers have allowed 120.3 rushing yards per game, 25th in the league so far. Without Garoppolo, look for the 49ers to try and establish the running game when they visit Los Angeles. Matt Breida should remain in your lineups and you should also consider him in DFS to work as complementary piece to your stacks.
The Raiders are allowing 116.3 rushing yards per game despite the Miami RBs going silent against them in Week Three. Expect Carlos Hyde to keep rolling, but I also would recommend rookie Baker Mayfield in his first NFL start as a stream, especially for those who cannot replace Garoppolo in a trade. He has crisp mechanics, good zip on his passes and can throw on the run. I say he will throw at least two TD passes and second-year TE David Nkoju can now re-emerge as a factor. Dare I say, with an opportunistic defense that has registered five interceptions, the Browns will win two in a row? It will be close, and they may even cover (Raiders by 2.5) but I think Oakland scratches this one out in desperate need of a victory. Cleveland has allowed four rush TDs, so Marshawn Lynch will score yet again.
You can bet the Packers will be ready for Buffalo after the Bills stunned Minnesota. I would actually consider a Green Bay stack as something unusual to employ in DFS lineups. Buffalo has been pretty good against the run so far so Aaron Rodgers is going to be slinging it frequently. I’d roll out Rodgers with Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham and Geronimo Allison. It will be another week to use Allison in your flex spot, too.