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2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine

2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine
Anthony Amico February 25, 2019 9:59AM EST

2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Who’s On Top?

So far this draft season I’ve given you three different regression-based methodologies to deliver WR prospect rankings. The first two were regression tree models, and the third was a linear regression model.

Now I’m going to use all three to deliver my first set of WR prospect rankings.

The methodology is simple. We have success rates for the prospects as well as projected point totals. It is difficult to compare them that way because they are on different scales. So I will scale each data point one to 100, then combine the numbers. I’ll scale that composite total one to 100 as well so that it is easier to digest – almost like Madden ratings for incoming players.

This is what we get:

NameSchoolProjectionp(noDS)p(wDS)Composite Score
Marquise BrownOklahoma146.920.300.76100
NKeal HarryArizona State196.200.350.3592
Andy IsabellaMassachusetts111.180.350.3873
Greg DortchWake Forest102.850.500.1571
J.J. Arcega-WhitesideStanford127.290.300.1559
A.J. BrownMississippi165.250.010.3555
D.K. MetcalfMississippi199.270.010.2054
David Sills VWest Virginia86.990.300.1550
Deebo SamuelSouth Carolina92.620.350.0248
Kelvin HarmonNorth Carolina State121.970.010.3545
Scott MillerBowling Green State68.310.120.3843
Preston WilliamsColorado State55.430.300.1542
Anthony JohnsonBuffalo52.940.300.1541
Tyre BradyMarshall52.760.300.1541
Jamarius WaySouth Alabama41.780.350.0235
Tabari HinesOregon27.620.300.1535
Parris CampbellOhio State111.660.010.2033
LilJordan HumphreyTexas111.880.010.0223
KeeSean JohnsonFresno State84.400.010.0216
Hakeem ButlerIowa State82.580.010.0216
Mecole HardmanGeorgia81.630.010.0215
Darius SlaytonAuburn75.640.010.0214
Emanuel HallMissouri75.290.010.0214
Penny HartGeorgia State72.220.000.0212
Gary Jennings Jr.West Virginia68.590.010.0212
Riley RidleyGeorgia67.280.010.0212
Miles BoykinNotre Dame65.930.010.0212
Antoine WesleyTexas Tech64.070.010.0211
Jaylen SmithLouisville63.910.010.0211
Damarkus LodgeMississippi59.920.010.0210
Olamide ZaccheausVirginia57.640.010.0210
Dillon MitchellOregon56.970.010.029
Stanley Morgan Jr.Nebraska55.420.010.029
Damion WillisTroy53.190.010.028
Felton Davis IIIMichigan State53.250.000.028
Tony PollardMemphis48.410.010.027
Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsNorth Carolina46.600.010.027
Dredrick SnelsonCentral Florida46.520.010.027
Hunter RenfrowClemson46.060.010.027
Cody ThompsonToledo45.870.010.027
Nyqwan MurrayFlorida State45.480.010.027
Keelan DossUC Davis44.860.010.026
Kahlil LewisCincinnati43.310.010.026
Tyron JohnsonOklahoma State41.340.010.026
Diontae JohnsonToledo40.730.010.025
Travis FulghamOld Dominion40.640.010.025
Terry McLaurinOhio State39.800.010.025
Olabisi JohnsonColorado State39.790.010.025
Ryan DavisAuburn39.190.010.025
Jovon DuranteFlorida Atlantic38.800.010.025
Terren EncaladeTulane36.970.010.025
Jalen HurdBaylor39.600.000.024
Jamal CustisSyracuse35.950.010.024
Terry GodwinGeorgia34.230.010.024
T.J. RahmingDuke32.830.010.024
Ventell BryantTemple32.610.010.024
Teddy VealLouisiana Tech32.560.010.024
Papi WhiteOhio32.150.010.023
Grant PerryMichigan30.650.010.023
Brad StewartGeorgia Tech30.330.010.023
Terry WrightPurdue29.970.010.023
Marcus GreenLouisiana-Monroe28.890.010.023
Flynn NagelNorthwestern28.200.010.022
Juwann WinfreeColorado28.140.010.022
Justin HobbsTulsa28.110.010.022
James GardnerMiami (OH)31.690.000.022
JonVea JohnsonToledo27.440.010.022
Chris PlattBaylor26.600.010.022
Xavier UbosiAlabama-Birmingham26.370.010.022
Deondre DouglasTroy25.700.010.022
Jaelan AustinTexas Christian25.510.010.022
DeAndre ThompkinsPenn State24.880.010.022
Raelon SingletonHouston22.610.010.021
Trevion ThompsonClemson22.280.010.021
Chris TaylorDuke21.810.010.021
A.J. RichardsonBoise State21.530.010.021
Luke TimianIndiana21.280.010.021
Vic Wharton iiiCalifornia21.050.010.021
Kwadarrius SmithAkron20.730.010.021
Trevon LeeDuke20.490.010.021
Johnny WoodsKent State20.400.010.021
Matthew EatonIowa State20.010.010.021
Jay MacIntyreColorado17.950.010.020
Dylan CollieBrigham Young17.890.010.020

“Projection” represents the linear model projection for each WR. “p(noDS)” is the probability of success for the WR without a scouting component. “p(wDS)” is the probability of success for the WR with a scouting component.

The 2019 WR Prospect Model 1

WR Prospect Rankings: Tiers and Analysis

It may surprise you, but Marquise Brown comes out as the top-rated WR for me in this class. He had the fourth-highest projection in the model, and was dominant in both of the regression trees. In fact, he was the only player to satisfy each of the key data points in the tree that included scouting. He has an NFL bloodline (Antonio Brown is his cousin) and was outrageously productive in his final season at Oklahoma. I am extremely bullish on him.

The nice thing about scaling the scores is that it very naturally sorts the WR prospect rankings into tiers. The only WR prospect in proximity to Brown is N’Keal Harry, who is a more traditional top prospect given his age and production.

The next tier contains two of my favorite players in the class in Andy Isabella and Greg Dortch. Isabella has very balanced success across all of the evaluative methods, while Dortch seems to thrive most in the scouting agnostic regression tree.

After those two groups, the scores flatten out a good bit. Someone who finds himself grouped very tightly with supposed studs such as D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown is David Sills of West Virginia. Sills was originally recruited by WVU as a quarterback, but made the transition to WR after transferring from and back to the school. He scored an insane 33 TDs in his final two seasons.

Preston Williams and Tyre Brady are two intriguing transfer prospects. Both struggled to find the field much in their first stops (Tennessee and Miami respectively), but dominated at their new schools. Williams owned a 0.45 Dominator Rating in 2018 at Colorado State, while Brady posted back-to-back 0.42 DRs at Marshall.

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