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    2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine

    2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Pre-Combine
    Anthony Amico February 25, 2019 9:59AM EDT

    2019 WR Prospect Rankings: Who’s On Top?

    So far this draft season I’ve given you three different regression-based methodologies to deliver WR prospect rankings. The first two were regression tree models, and the third was a linear regression model.

    Now I’m going to use all three to deliver my first set of WR prospect rankings.

    The methodology is simple. We have success rates for the prospects as well as projected point totals. It is difficult to compare them that way because they are on different scales. So I will scale each data point one to 100, then combine the numbers. I’ll scale that composite total one to 100 as well so that it is easier to digest – almost like Madden ratings for incoming players.

    This is what we get:

    NameSchoolProjectionp(noDS)p(wDS)Composite Score
    Marquise BrownOklahoma146.920.300.76100
    NKeal HarryArizona State196.200.350.3592
    Andy IsabellaMassachusetts111.180.350.3873
    Greg DortchWake Forest102.850.500.1571
    J.J. Arcega-WhitesideStanford127.290.300.1559
    A.J. BrownMississippi165.250.010.3555
    D.K. MetcalfMississippi199.270.010.2054
    David Sills VWest Virginia86.990.300.1550
    Deebo SamuelSouth Carolina92.620.350.0248
    Kelvin HarmonNorth Carolina State121.970.010.3545
    Scott MillerBowling Green State68.310.120.3843
    Preston WilliamsColorado State55.430.300.1542
    Anthony JohnsonBuffalo52.940.300.1541
    Tyre BradyMarshall52.760.300.1541
    Jamarius WaySouth Alabama41.780.350.0235
    Tabari HinesOregon27.620.300.1535
    Parris CampbellOhio State111.660.010.2033
    LilJordan HumphreyTexas111.880.010.0223
    KeeSean JohnsonFresno State84.400.010.0216
    Hakeem ButlerIowa State82.580.010.0216
    Mecole HardmanGeorgia81.630.010.0215
    Darius SlaytonAuburn75.640.010.0214
    Emanuel HallMissouri75.290.010.0214
    Penny HartGeorgia State72.220.000.0212
    Gary Jennings Jr.West Virginia68.590.010.0212
    Riley RidleyGeorgia67.280.010.0212
    Miles BoykinNotre Dame65.930.010.0212
    Antoine WesleyTexas Tech64.070.010.0211
    Jaylen SmithLouisville63.910.010.0211
    Damarkus LodgeMississippi59.920.010.0210
    Olamide ZaccheausVirginia57.640.010.0210
    Dillon MitchellOregon56.970.010.029
    Stanley Morgan Jr.Nebraska55.420.010.029
    Damion WillisTroy53.190.010.028
    Felton Davis IIIMichigan State53.250.000.028
    Tony PollardMemphis48.410.010.027
    Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsNorth Carolina46.600.010.027
    Dredrick SnelsonCentral Florida46.520.010.027
    Hunter RenfrowClemson46.060.010.027
    Cody ThompsonToledo45.870.010.027
    Nyqwan MurrayFlorida State45.480.010.027
    Keelan DossUC Davis44.860.010.026
    Kahlil LewisCincinnati43.310.010.026
    Tyron JohnsonOklahoma State41.340.010.026
    Diontae JohnsonToledo40.730.010.025
    Travis FulghamOld Dominion40.640.010.025
    Terry McLaurinOhio State39.800.010.025
    Olabisi JohnsonColorado State39.790.010.025
    Ryan DavisAuburn39.190.010.025
    Jovon DuranteFlorida Atlantic38.800.010.025
    Terren EncaladeTulane36.970.010.025
    Jalen HurdBaylor39.600.000.024
    Jamal CustisSyracuse35.950.010.024
    Terry GodwinGeorgia34.230.010.024
    T.J. RahmingDuke32.830.010.024
    Ventell BryantTemple32.610.010.024
    Teddy VealLouisiana Tech32.560.010.024
    Papi WhiteOhio32.150.010.023
    Grant PerryMichigan30.650.010.023
    Brad StewartGeorgia Tech30.330.010.023
    Terry WrightPurdue29.970.010.023
    Marcus GreenLouisiana-Monroe28.890.010.023
    Flynn NagelNorthwestern28.200.010.022
    Juwann WinfreeColorado28.140.010.022
    Justin HobbsTulsa28.110.010.022
    James GardnerMiami (OH)31.690.000.022
    JonVea JohnsonToledo27.440.010.022
    Chris PlattBaylor26.600.010.022
    Xavier UbosiAlabama-Birmingham26.370.010.022
    Deondre DouglasTroy25.700.010.022
    Jaelan AustinTexas Christian25.510.010.022
    DeAndre ThompkinsPenn State24.880.010.022
    Raelon SingletonHouston22.610.010.021
    Trevion ThompsonClemson22.280.010.021
    Chris TaylorDuke21.810.010.021
    A.J. RichardsonBoise State21.530.010.021
    Luke TimianIndiana21.280.010.021
    Vic Wharton iiiCalifornia21.050.010.021
    Kwadarrius SmithAkron20.730.010.021
    Trevon LeeDuke20.490.010.021
    Johnny WoodsKent State20.400.010.021
    Matthew EatonIowa State20.010.010.021
    Jay MacIntyreColorado17.950.010.020
    Dylan CollieBrigham Young17.890.010.020

    “Projection” represents the linear model projection for each WR. “p(noDS)” is the probability of success for the WR without a scouting component. “p(wDS)” is the probability of success for the WR with a scouting component.

    The 2019 WR Prospect Model 1

    WR Prospect Rankings: Tiers and Analysis

    It may surprise you, but Marquise Brown comes out as the top-rated WR for me in this class. He had the fourth-highest projection in the model, and was dominant in both of the regression trees. In fact, he was the only player to satisfy each of the key data points in the tree that included scouting. He has an NFL bloodline (Antonio Brown is his cousin) and was outrageously productive in his final season at Oklahoma. I am extremely bullish on him.

    The nice thing about scaling the scores is that it very naturally sorts the WR prospect rankings into tiers. The only WR prospect in proximity to Brown is N’Keal Harry, who is a more traditional top prospect given his age and production.

    The next tier contains two of my favorite players in the class in Andy Isabella and Greg Dortch. Isabella has very balanced success across all of the evaluative methods, while Dortch seems to thrive most in the scouting agnostic regression tree.

    After those two groups, the scores flatten out a good bit. Someone who finds himself grouped very tightly with supposed studs such as D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown is David Sills of West Virginia. Sills was originally recruited by WVU as a quarterback, but made the transition to WR after transferring from and back to the school. He scored an insane 33 TDs in his final two seasons.

    Preston Williams and Tyre Brady are two intriguing transfer prospects. Both struggled to find the field much in their first stops (Tennessee and Miami respectively), but dominated at their new schools. Williams owned a 0.45 Dominator Rating in 2018 at Colorado State, while Brady posted back-to-back 0.42 DRs at Marshall.

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