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Three Rookie Best Ball Fantasy Football Targets

Three Rookie Best Ball Fantasy Football Targets
Davis Mattek May 1, 2019 11:21AM EDT

Three Rookie Best Ball Fantasy Football Targets To Swing Your Leagues

2019 NFL Draft rookies have officially been added to the player pools on DRAFT and the FPPC! Now that NFL rosters are starting to take their official shape, our best ball fantasy football strategy has to change. Several teams have confirmed their quarterback status (0r shaken theirs up), running backs have more competition and there are rookie pass catchers in ideal situations. Getting an early jump on these rookies before their ADP settles to a less profitable position will be key in setting yourself up for a +EV best ball fantasy football season.

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Parris Campbell, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts: ADP 185.7

Rookie wide receivers are generally a tough bargain. They are exceedingly unlikely to post top-24 seasons at their position. Calvin Ridley was the only rookie wide receiver to finish as a WR2 of last year’s rookie crop and Juju Smith-Shuster was the only player to do in 2017. Generally speaking, a rookie wide receiver is an exception to the rule if they finish in the top-24 of their position. However, the valuation of players changes a little bit in best ball leagues where we value players based on spiked-week production. Parris Campbell is a really ideal player for best ball formats. While he will likely be the third wide receiver on the Colts and the fourth overall in target share, his skill set should translate to spiked weeks. Campbell ran a sub 4.4 40 and specialized in long touchdowns at Ohio State and might have some duties as a kick/punt returner. Andrew Luck threw the second-most passes in the NFL last season and is likely to come close to his 639 attempts again in 2019. If that holds true and Campbell replaces the targets that went to Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant last season, 80 targets and five touchdowns isn’t an absurd expectation. As your sixth or seventh wide receiver in best ball, he projects as an incredibly +EV selection.

Kyler Murray, Quarterback, Arizona Cardinals: ADP 119.2

Kyler is not going to stay at this ADP for long. My best projection is that he ends up inside the top-100 and well within the top-12 at the quarterback position. If you are doing drafts right now, this is your opportunity to get Kyler as a true late-round quarterback in best ball fantasy football leagues. Kyler’s 7.2 yards per carry ranks sixth since 2000 amongst all players who threw 100 or more passing attempts (the best way I could run this filter). His 1,001 rushing yards was more than Dak Prescott’s best season, and also outproduced seasons by Lamar Jackson, Tim Tebow and RG3. The point I’m making is that Kyler is going to break the #KonamiCode. Not only will he be an effective passer with the multitude of weapons that Arizona has added, but he is going to add rushing yards and touchdowns in a special way that most quarterbacks can’t. If offered good odds, I would wager on Kyler to finish top-five at the position in 2019.

Darrell Henderson, Running Back, Los Angeles Rams: ADP 137.9 

The Rams using their third-round selection on Darrell Henderson speaks volumes about their concerns for Todd Gurley. Gurley’s knee has been reported as developing serious arthritis and they still owe him preposterous amounts of money for the next two seasons. Despite owing TG3 that money, they still opted to select my top running back of the 2019 NFL Draft and add him to a backfield of Malcolm Brown and John Kelly. The idea that Kelly might be traded or Brown might be cut seems pretty logical to me at this moment in time. Assuming Henderson plays as well as we all expect in training camp and preseason, Henderson will be the primary backup to Gurley. If and when Gurley’s knee acts up and forces him to miss time or split work, Henderson is in line to be the main beneficiary. I will be flat-fading Gurley in all formats until his ADP becomes more palatable and I’ll be scooping up shares of Henderson as much as possible. The potential value in Henderson becoming the lead back for one of the five best offenses in the NFL is too good to ignore in the double-digit rounds.

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