“Peel fast. Through the city. Play monopoly with real cash.”
I Love the Dough by Notorious B.I.G. featuring Jay-Z
While teams are spending real money like it’s monopoly money (unless you’re an RB), optimism abounds in your dynasty league. A new team means a brand new opportunity for your players. That also means it is a great opportunity to sell off some property. Not every free agent signee should be dealt with urgency, but there are a number of candidates that should be shopped around. Let’s go through some of the larger moves and talk about whether you should sell them off.
Mike Glennon will finally get a real chance to be an NFL starter. The 27-year-old performed well in 2013 as a fill-in, but still played behind Josh McCown in 2014. Then the Bucs wisely drafted Jameis Winston the following April. Glennon has intriguing physical skills, but accuracy and decision-making have been concerns since college. The Bears do not have a ton to offer on offense outside of Jordan Howard, but Cam Meredith, Kevin White and Zach Miller are not as terrible as they might initially sound. Glennon’s deal is very team-friendly and there is a good chance he is not asked to do much via the air. Selling? Yes, if you’ve held him this long you have two options. Hold him in hopes that he turns into a franchise QB and potential Top 15 Fantasy option, which is in the realm of outcomes for him. The other option is to sell now because chances of him hitting big and returning more down the road are slim. Sell.
Eddie Lacy signed a one-year deal with the Seahawks, joining Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise in the backfield. If Lacy is healthy and in shape, you would expect him to be the lead back. Prosise should maintain a third down role and still has a high upside future. I’m buying him where I can after the Lacy signing. Rawls is likely to lose out here, at least in the short-term. He’s a hold because you are not getting much in return for him at this point. Lacy’s value has fallen considerably over the last two seasons, which makes him a likely hold for the time being. If he shows up this summer and starts getting “best shape of his life” hype, then you can sell. Or wait until he rolls up a big game or two in September before shopping him around. Marshawn Lynch revitalized his career in Seattle, perhaps Lacy can do the same, though I’m not optimistic. Speaking of Lynch, there are reports that he may be lured out of retirement to join the Raiders. Beast Mode deserves a speculative immediate add in dynasty formats.
Latavius Murray signs with the Vikings, dealing a blow to the Jerick McKinnon truthers. This will be a real-life timeshare, with Murray the lead / goal line back and McKinnon the pass-catching change of pace type. Murray’s value is as an RB2 behind a brutal O-line with mostly mediocre offensive talent around him. McKinnon is more of a FLEX play, even in PPR formats. He’s still a high upside handcuff, but the Vikings clear do not see him as a workhorse type of back. Your best move with both backs is likely to hold.
We all know that Danny Woodhead brings grit and hard work to a team. He had also been bringing a significant number of Fantasy points, especially in PPR formats, before tearing his ACL last September. As a free agent, he signed with the Ravens and by doing so, rained all over the Kenneth Dixon hype parade. I still like Dixon long-term, but his value definitely takes a short-term hit. Especially when you consider his pass-catching ability will likely not be fully utilized with Woodhead on board. This should be a committee approach and the guy you want for 2017 is Woodhead. He’s also the guy I’m selling in dynasty though, because he’s already 32 years old and coming off of a serious knee injury. If someone is overrating the perennially underrated Woodhead, now is your time to strike a deal.
“Money money money money, money. Some people got to have it. Some people really need it.”
For The Love Of Money by The O’Jays
Alshon Jeffery was the big name wideout heading into free agency and he could be the same next spring as well. While he possesses WR1 upside, injuries and suspension have caused him to be a Fantasy disappointment for the past two seasons. Jeffery landed with the Eagles on a one-year deal, seemingly in hopes of resuscitating his value and landing a huge deal next year. If all goes well to start the 2017 season, you have to assume the Eagles will pay him handsomely to remain in Philly. Jeffery’s injuries have been frustrating, but it is his target share in Philadelphia that we are concerned about. Even as the number one weapon in the offense, he’ll have to compete with a lot of other mouths to feed. Plus, his name value has always been larger than his Fantasy potential. Selling? Would have to be overwhelmed to move him. Jeffery took a one-year deal to bet on himself and I am inclined to go along for the ride. Torrey Smith joins Jeffery in Philly, which might sucker a few Fantasy owners back in. Smith will likely be a Fantasy disappointment once again and seems no better than fourth in line for targets. He’ll have some big games, but too many 2 for 25 lines will drive you crazy. Sell now if you can.
Terrelle Pryor takes a one-year deal with the Redskins after a breakthrough 2016 performance with the Browns. If only someone had told him to convert to WR out of college. Pryor has the size and athleticism to take yet another step, with Washington a great place to do that. Expect Kirk Cousins to get him at least eight targets per game. Pryor’s value is going to vary greatly depending on the owners in your league, but he is worth selling if you can get a huge haul. If not, hold and see if he can take his game to another level in 2017.
Brandin Cooks was traded to the Patriots last week. From one pass-happy offense to another, his value does not change much for me. He is still a high-upside WR2 option. If the new situation brings in more interest, though, I am of course willing to move him. The most likely outcome is to hold and enjoy the new surroundings.
Kenny Britt lands in Cleveland with the Browns. He has always had potential and came through with a huge year for the Rams last season, his first 1,000-yard effort. With Terrelle Pryor gone and Josh Gordon always a question mark, Britt could see plenty of targets from whoever is under center for the Browns. Lots of question marks here obviously, but Britt is a solid depth guy for your dynasty roster. You are not likely to get max value by moving him now, so he’s a recommended hold.
DeSean Jackson brings his speed game to Tampa Bay, one of the best landing spots for a receiver. He gets to play with the young, dominant tandem of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Jackson remains a WR3 type of value, but it is always hard getting someone to pay that type of price. This might be your chance to do so. If not, you just have to continue to hold him until the speed starts to go.
Brandon Marshall declined considerably in 2016 after a monster Jets debut. He stays in New Jersey, landing a two-year deal with the Giants. He should make his living in the red zone, but he’s closer to a WR3 with target hog Odell Beckham and impressive sophomore Sterling Shepard. Shepard also takes a short-term value hit, so now would be the time to buy there. It is doubtful Marshall has a huge dynasty market at age-33, so it might be best to hold him until he retires or at least until your league’s trade deadline.
After a bounce back season for the Redskins, Pierre Garcon departed Washington for greener pastures, maybe. He immediately ascended to the top of the 49ers depth chart upon signing, so targets should not be an issue. The talent around him and specifically the person or people throwing him the ball this year are still very much up in the air. Garcon is not the speedy playmaker he was when he first came into the league, but he can be a useful WR3 option for the next couple seasons. Don’t expect too much more than what he delivered last year though. Your best opportunity to sell is finding an owner in your league that needs reliable receiver depth to plug in. His dynasty value is still minimal, but the new scenery gives him a decent perceived bump.
Terrance Williams re-ups with the Cowboys to be a situational deep threat and decent red zone option. He needed a change of scenery to get back on the Fantasy radar. Yawn. You can try to sell, but good luck finding an interested buyer.
When did Kenny Stills become one of the most valuable receivers in football? You’d think it was a given the way people were talking him up. Back with the Dolphins, Stills upside is similar to what we saw last year. He will be behind Jarvis Landry and possibly the more talented DeVante Parker for targets. Selling time.
Robert Woods is someone who could pop a bit with a new address, but don’t pay for the potential. He is instantly the Rams best receiver but that is not saying much at all. Woods skills say slightly above average across the board and in the long-term he’s nothing more than bench material. His 2017 outlook is boosted by potential targets.
Markus Wheaton signed with the Bears and will be in the mix for targets. Sell if anyone is buying the fresh start in Chicago narrative. Wheaton has been an inefficient player throughout his career with only a glimmer of upside.
Dwayne Allen has been overly hyped in Fantasy circles for years. He’s a lumbering TE whose solid in the red zone, but landing with the New England Patriots via trade will do wonders for your value. You should’ve sold last week when the news came out.
Martellus Bennett gets to be the new, better Jared Cook in Green Bay. He’s a Top 10 TE and I’m only selling if I am loaded at the position already. Cook is still looking for work, but he’ll sign soon and be disappointing a new fan base in no time!
Jack Doyle re-signs with the Colts, where he was a strong breakthrough TE last year. With Dwayne Allen out of the picture, Erik Swoope and Doyle will form a dangerous tandem. Doyle is a solid PPR TE2 for next year, with upside to finish in the Top 10. Swoope is a developing dynasty prospect that could be in line for a 2018 breakout.