Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    April 30, 2019
    Post-Draft 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Post-Draft 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Now that the 2019 NFL draft is in the books, dynasty fantasy football leagues are on to a new phase. These Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings have been done post-draft to help evaluate what rookie picks are currently worth in your leagues and how they might compare to veterans…

  • DFB Invitational Dynasty Fantasy Football League
    May 10, 2019
    The #DFBInvitational Industry Dynasty Fantasy Football League

    The Mega-Industry SuperStar #DFBInvitational Industry Dynasty Fantasy Football League Of all the industry leagues that I have ever played in, the DFB Invitational dynasty fantasy football league (organized by Scott Barrett from Pro Football Focus) is maybe the most prestigious fantasy football league that I have ever played in. The league is a 12-team PPR…

  • 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check
    May 24, 2019
    2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check

    2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check NFL Futures Betting is one of the more beatable markets when it comes to betting on the NFL. The bets normally have lower limits and are generally softer than a line on an actual NFL game where the limits are higher and open to more scrutiny. These NFL Futures betting…

  • 2019 Play DRAFT Best Ball Championship
    May 23, 2019
    The $3.5 Million DRAFT Best Ball Championship

    The DRAFT Best Ball Championship Has Returned DRAFT ran the Best Ball Championship last year, and it was a smashing success (yours truly had a good time also, making the championship round of the tournament). Now it’s back and better than before, with an insane $3.5 million prize pool, and a cool million to first! The…

  • 2019 Fantasy Football Busts
    May 23, 2019
    2019 Fantasy Football Busts

    2019 Fantasy Football Busts We are beginning our coverage of 2019 fantasy football #DraftSZN in earnest here at RotoExperts. In a corresponding to piece to my first look at fantasy football sleepers for 2019, it is almost more important to look at fantasy football busts in 2019 fantasy football. Most of us will be doing…

  • First Look: Fantasy Football Sleepers
    May 22, 2019
    First Look: Fantasy Football Sleepers

    Fantasy Football Sleepers: First Edition “Fantasy Football Sleepers” is almost a dead term. Those who are really #hardcore about fantasy football know that sleepers don’t really exist. The Kansas City Chiefs fifth-string running back undrafted free agent isn’t even a fantasy football sleeper because someone, somewhere has written an article about how he is the…

  • DRAFT Best Ball Leagues premium
    May 21, 2019
    The ULTIMATE Guide To DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

    The RotoExperts ULTIMATE Guide To DRAFT Best Ball Leagues Introduction To PlayDRAFT Best Ball Leagues There is almost no better experience in fantasy football than playing in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues. A large part of why we launched the NFL365 package was that everyone involved with the SportsGrid fantasy football product genuinely loves to play…

Sleeper And Bust Of The Week: Draft Allen Robinson, Not Kevin White

RotoExperts Staff June 30, 2015 10:05AM EDT
You’re forcing me to do it, and I kind of hate you for it. Yes, it’s time for sleeper talk! No, I certainly don’t hate talking Fantasy Football, values, busts, rankings, etc. It’s just that I hate the word “sleeper.” Unless we’re listening to Nirvana, talking on our Zack Morris sized phone and wearing our neon-colored tee, rolled-sleeve plaid shirt and frayed jeans, there are no such things as sleepers.

zackmorrisphone4

Just like slap-bracelets, sleepers went out of style in the 90s. With the wealth of information readily available at your fingertips, you truly can’t find real-deal sleepers anymore.

As soon as an expert mentions a sleeper type player, the ball starts rolling and within a few days, sometimes hours, that player is now well known or even over-hyped. There are numerous undervalued players every year, and we can and will always talk under and overvalued players. We just don’t have any “unknown” players who will surprise because the Internet has made that impossible.

Still, “undervalued players” just isn’t catchy and those extra two syllables are just a pain. Heck, when you talk “busts,” saying “overvalued players” now adds three syllables. Ugh. I need a nap after that. So, we’re back to Sleepers and Busts as the hip slang for undervalued and overvalued players. Maybe we can go further and call them SABs? Huh? Yea… okay, that’s trying a bit too hard.

Now that I’ve broken down the words way more than necessary, it’s time to start my new weekly series that will run all the way into August. Your 2015 Fantasy Football Sleeper and Bust of the Week. SBW? SABOW? Hmm. I’m open to ideas. In any case, every week I’m going to give you a sleeper and bust that warrants your attention for the upcoming season. By the time Week 1 rolls around, you too will be tired of hearing “sleeper” all of the time… but hopefully not tired of reading this series.

Sleeper: Allen Robinson

Just in case you haven’t read, listened to or seen a single thing I’ve been on since December, I’m going to start with Allen Robinson. There is a good chance you’ve stumbled across his name if you follow me on Twitter or read/heard anything I’ve done in reference to the 2015 Fantasy Football season. There is a great reason for that: Robinson is a terrific receiver and vastly underrated… right now.

“Wait. Jake, why did you add that ‘right now’ part?”

Aren’t you the observant reader?

http://hugelolcdn.com/i/55280.gif

That’s because I’m not the only one signing Robinson’s praises. Jon Moore, Matt Harmon and many others have needed bibs given how much we’re drooling over ARob. That’s why I said, “right now.” Robinson could easily end up with an ADP that equals his upside for 2015, thereby eliminating potential value returned.

When you draft a player at an ADP near his ceiling, you’re buying all of the risk without getting potential return value on your cost. It’s a mistake too many owners make when drafting. That’s not the case with Robinson currently though. Not even close.

Robinson is the 33rd receiver off the board with an 8th round ADP (WR33, 88th overall). That’s insanely low. For reference, two rookies have higher or similar ADPs (Amari Cooper WR21, Nelson Algohor WR34). That’s a slap in the face. Jeremy Maclin (WR26) won’t catch any touchdowns now that he’s in Kansas City, Jarvis Landry (28) is a good receiver but he’s no ARob and Mike Wallace (30)… really?

We can project Robinson’s Week 2-10 games across a full season, or even go one better and do Weeks 3-10 since Blake Bortles didn’t start until then. That would give us 144 targets, 86 receptions, 946 yards and four touchdowns. I’ll go even one more better and give you my projection of 82/1,095/5. I think Robinson does better on a per catch basis, and those numbers project to WR19. Eat up this value! However, if Robinson climbs into the mid-to-low teens, there could be better value picks out there, so be careful as we all keep pounding the ARob drum this offseason.

Bust: Kevin White

STOP! Update time. It’s August 17, and White might not even play this season. You can still read below for what to make of the Bears’ receiving game, but White might not be a part of it until 2016.

Why not stick with receivers and why not use someone who has no right being ahead of Robinson? Now don’t get me wrong, I am a big fan of White and his talent. He was my topped ranked rookie receiver before the draft, and if he landed in a better situation, I’d have him higher. The Bears aren’t a terrible situation by far, but while he should win the No. 2 job in Chicago, it’s not a guarantee and it likely won’t be a full workload type No. 2 role.

Marquess Wilson had the inside track to that role before the Bears drafted White, and he won’t go away quietly. The Bears also signed Eddie Royal. Yes, the rare but real and annoying touchdown vulture at receiver. White has to deal with both of these threats to his playing time plus the inconsistency that is Jay Cutler. If White struggles at all, the Bears have two decent options on hand, which makes White a rather risky pick.

The man has plenty of upside and if everything falls perfectly with no hiccups from White, he could actually reach the Top 25. However, a stat line around 61/825/5 is much more reasonable and quite good for a rookie. Remember, last year was a once-in-a-generation season for rookie receivers. Most rookie receivers would love to have a season similar to what I listed. Nevertheless, that puts White in the WR4 range, alongside the likes of Mike Wallace (again, he should be lower), Charles Johnson, Brandon LaFell and Victor Cruz. As you can see, all of these receivers have the potential for more, but they all carry risk and warrant an ADP much lower than the Top 30.

Main image photo credit via Twitter: Thee_AR15

Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    April 30, 2019
    Post-Draft 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Post-Draft 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update Now that the 2019 NFL draft is in the books, dynasty fantasy football leagues are on to a new phase. These Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings have been done post-draft to help evaluate what rookie picks are currently worth in your leagues and how they might compare to veterans…

  • DFB Invitational Dynasty Fantasy Football League
    May 10, 2019
    The #DFBInvitational Industry Dynasty Fantasy Football League

    The Mega-Industry SuperStar #DFBInvitational Industry Dynasty Fantasy Football League Of all the industry leagues that I have ever played in, the DFB Invitational dynasty fantasy football league (organized by Scott Barrett from Pro Football Focus) is maybe the most prestigious fantasy football league that I have ever played in. The league is a 12-team PPR…

  • 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check
    May 24, 2019
    2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check

    2019 NFL Futures Betting Market Check NFL Futures Betting is one of the more beatable markets when it comes to betting on the NFL. The bets normally have lower limits and are generally softer than a line on an actual NFL game where the limits are higher and open to more scrutiny. These NFL Futures betting…

  • 2019 Play DRAFT Best Ball Championship
    May 23, 2019
    The $3.5 Million DRAFT Best Ball Championship

    The DRAFT Best Ball Championship Has Returned DRAFT ran the Best Ball Championship last year, and it was a smashing success (yours truly had a good time also, making the championship round of the tournament). Now it’s back and better than before, with an insane $3.5 million prize pool, and a cool million to first! The…

  • 2019 Fantasy Football Busts
    May 23, 2019
    2019 Fantasy Football Busts

    2019 Fantasy Football Busts We are beginning our coverage of 2019 fantasy football #DraftSZN in earnest here at RotoExperts. In a corresponding to piece to my first look at fantasy football sleepers for 2019, it is almost more important to look at fantasy football busts in 2019 fantasy football. Most of us will be doing…

  • First Look: Fantasy Football Sleepers
    May 22, 2019
    First Look: Fantasy Football Sleepers

    Fantasy Football Sleepers: First Edition “Fantasy Football Sleepers” is almost a dead term. Those who are really #hardcore about fantasy football know that sleepers don’t really exist. The Kansas City Chiefs fifth-string running back undrafted free agent isn’t even a fantasy football sleeper because someone, somewhere has written an article about how he is the…

  • DRAFT Best Ball Leagues premium
    May 21, 2019
    The ULTIMATE Guide To DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

    The RotoExperts ULTIMATE Guide To DRAFT Best Ball Leagues Introduction To PlayDRAFT Best Ball Leagues There is almost no better experience in fantasy football than playing in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues. A large part of why we launched the NFL365 package was that everyone involved with the SportsGrid fantasy football product genuinely loves to play…