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    Statistically Sound Top 100: Week 8 Rankings

    RotoExperts Staff October 22, 2014 9:19AM EDT
    Quarterbacks (1-8)Quarterbacks(9-16)Quarterbacks (17-24)
    Aaron RodgersNick FolesTeddy Bridgewater
    Peyton ManningPhilip RiversAndy Dalton
    Andrew LuckMatthew StaffordAlex Smith
    Drew BreesTom BradyJoe Flacco
    Jay CutlerRussell WilsonKyle Orton
    Tony RomoCam NewtonRyan Fitzpatrick
    Matt RyanCarson PalmerMike Glennon
    Ben RoethlisbergerRyan TannehillAustin Davis

    1. The Packers are on a roll, thanks in no small part to their elite quarterback playing at a historically high level. Photo: Mike Morbeck https://www.flickr.com/people/33494452@N05

      The Packers are on a roll, thanks in no small part to their elite quarterback playing at a historically high level. Photo: Mike Morbeck

      Aaron Rodgers: In his first season as a starter, Rodgers threw five touchdowns and three interceptions indoors. Since that point in time: 41 scores and 4 picks

    2. Peyton Manning: Completed 27 of 41 passes vs. SD for 289 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a short week last season after throwing for 300-plus yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions the week prior (318 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions last week). He has averaged 316 yards with eight scores and one interception in his last three home games on short rest.
    3. Andrew Luck: In addition to passing for at least 340 yards, 8.19 yards per attempt and multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games, Luck has completed a pass of at least 30 yards in 12 of his last 13 games.
    4. Drew Brees: The last time Brees hosted a quarterback who is on the Hall of Fame fast track (Manning, Brady, or Rodgers), all he did was complete 18 of 23 passes for 371 yards and five touchdowns. Jeremy Shockey was his tight end and Robert Meachem his WR2 on that team.
    5. Jay Cutler: Has the Patriots defense been good or have they just benefited from the lack of talent on the other sideline? Using standard ESPN scoring, they’ve allowed the opposing quarterback to score 30.9 percent more Fantasy points than he averaged coming into action. That would mean 23 points for Cutler this week (that would have tied him for the fourth highest total of Week 7).
    6. Tony Romo: He has gone six straight games without multiple interceptions: he hasn’t done that in seven straight since 2009.
    7. Matt Ryan: He is averaging 56.6 percent more yards per pass attempt at home than on the road this season. The Lions have faced just one “proven” quarterback on the road this season (Cam Newton) and he found four different receivers for plays of at least 20 yards.
    8. Ben Roethlisberger: The Colts have feasted on some poor quarterbacks this season, thus making their statistics impressive. They intercepted just one of 73 passes against Fantasy quarterbacks currently rated ahead of Roethlisberger in my rankings. Big Ben is completing 72 percent of his passes in games without an interception this season.
    9. Nick Foles: He has never recorded back-to-back games with over 230 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns.
    10. Philip Rivers: Since the beginning of last season, he is averaging 293 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions following a game with at least 14 incompletions.
    11. Matthew Stafford: The Falcons have given up a league-high nine completions of at least 40 yards while Stafford has completed a 40-yard pass in six of his last seven and a 50-yard pass in four of his last five.
    12. Tom Brady: In games after an extended rest (at last 10 days) since 2011: 239 passing yards with 1.5 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game. On normal or short rest since 2011: 292 yards with 2.1 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions.
    13. Russell Wilson: From Week 7 last year through Week 7 this year, he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and two interceptions on the road. He has rushed for a touchdown in three straight after rushing for a touchdown in just three of his previous 35 games.
    14. Cam Newton: The Seahawks are allowing 13.8 Fantasy points to mobile quarterbacks (Newton, Rodgers, Luck, and Kaepernick twice) over the last season-plus.
    15. Carson Palmer: Threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia last season after the Eagles’ bye week, finding Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald for 20-plus yard touchdowns. The Eagles allowed 15.2 percent of completions to go for 20-plus yards last season and are allowing 15.3 percent this season.
    16. Ryan Tannehill: Three straight games with at least 240 yards and multiple touchdowns; he never strung back-to-back games prior to this run in his career (35 games).
    17. Teddy Bridgewater: He is averaging 11.62 yards per completion this season (for reference, Luck is averaging 11.71) with a low 7.2 aDOT (average depth of target). He gets the ball into his teammate’s hands in space and the Buccaneers rank dead last in completion percentage against (71.6 percent).
    18. Andy Dalton: Four of his seven completions of over 20 yards have gone for a touchdown this season and he has completed a pass of at least 20 yards in 21 of his last 22 games. Not a bad trend against a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most pass plays of at least 20 yards.
    19. Alex Smith: Coming off a week in which he ran six times, matching his greatest number of attempts over the last calendar year. The Rams have faced three straight mobile quarterbacks, allowing an increasing number of Fantasy points each week.
    20. Joe Flacco: He is averaging 185 yards through the air while tossing seven touchdowns and five interceptions in his last eight divisional road games.
    21. Kyle Orton: Simple math: no quarterback has more completions than Orton over the last three weeks and now the Bills will be without their two starting running backs.
    22. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Orton has more completions over the last three weeks than Fitzpatrick has pass attempts.
    23. Mike Glennon: The Buccaneers have opened the second half trailing by at least 35 points twice and Glennon has capitalized by throwing for 314 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. In his other 10 quarters of work this season, he’s totaled 672 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions.
    24. Austin Davis: He is averaging 25 pass attempts in victories and 34 pass attempts in losses.

    FLEX (1-15)FLEX (16-30)FLEX (31-45)FLEX (46-60)
    Jamaal CharlesGolden TateKelvin BenjaminShane Vereen
    DeMarco MurrayMarques ColstonJeremy MaclinJermaine Kearse
    Demaryius ThomasRandall CobbLamar MillerJustin Hunter
    Arian FosterVincent JacksonEric DeckerPercy Harvin
    Antonio BrownGiovani BernardT.Y. HiltonJustin Hunter
    Julio JonesSammy WatkinsWes WelkerTre Mason
    Marshawn LynchJustin ForsettMichael FloydKeenan Allen
    Le'Veon BellJulian EdelmanMike WallaceCecil Shorts
    Brandon MarshallEmmanuel SandersJoique BellLarry Fitzgerald
    Jordy NelsonAlshon JefferyRoddy WhiteMohamed Sanu
    Matt ForteJerick McKinnonBen TateAndre Johnson
    Dez BryantPierre GarconDeAndre HopkinsKendall Wright
    Andre EllingtonRonnie HillmanEddie LacyDeSean Jackson
    Alfred MorrisAhmad BradshawDoug MartinJames Jones
    LeSean McCoySteve Smith Sr.Allen RobinsonDarren McFadden

    1. Jamaal Charles: He has finished within the Top 7 running backs in Breakaway percentage (percentage of yards gained on runs of at least 15 yards) in each of the last four seasons. The Rams have given up a run of at least 23 yards in every game this season
    2. DeMarco Murray: Murray has scored a rushing touchdown in 10 of 11 games since 2011 in which he has carried the rock 20 times (excluding season openers vs NYG).
    3. Demaryius Thomas: Remember when Josh Gordon was lighting the world on fire last season? His best three game stretch included 20.9 yards per catch, four touchdowns, and a 45-plus yard reception in each game. DT’s last three: 20.0 yards per catch, four touchdowns, and a 45-plus yard reception in each game.
    4. Arian Foster: In six games on short rest since 2011, he has recorded 139 touches for 727 yards and eight touchdowns (20.1 Standard Fantasy points per).
    5. Antonio Brown: The Colts have faced two opponents that average north of 36 pass attempts per game and went on to surrender 61 points. The top pass catcher accounted for 57.6 PPR Fantasy points in those two games.
    6. Julio Jones: Think they win in London? He is averaging 24.7 PPR Fantasy points in the last seven wins he has been a part of.
    7. Marshawn Lynch: Beast Mode has averaged 3.64 yards per carry in his last five road games but … the Panthers are allowing 5.66 yards per carry at home this season.
    8. Le’Veon Bell: After a strong MNF performance, the second-year back now has gone 10 straight games with at least 100 total yards or a touchdown (he’s had both in four of those contests).
    9. Brandon Marshall: He may not be happy with Cutler (allegedly) but after his target count didn’t increase a single time in his first five games, it has now risen in back-to-back weeks.
    10. Jordy Nelson: Since 2013, he is averaging 19.74 PPR Fantasy points coming off of a week in which he was targeted with five or fewer passes.
    11. Matt Forte: New England has allowed 20 receptions to opposing running backs over the last four weeks, with three running backs recording at least 10 Fantasy points on the ground over that stretch.
    12. Dez Bryant: Love the talent, but not the opportunity. The Redskins have been passed on the fourth fewest times in the league, while the Cowboys have called the third fewest pass plays.
    13. Andre Ellington: Since facing the Cardinals last season, the Eagles have allowed the four dual threat running backs that they have opposed to catch at least four passes. Ellington’s top four Fantasy performances this season have come in games in which he caught at least four passes.
    14. Alfred Morris: A rushing touchdown or 20-plus touches in 13 of his 14 career games within the division.
    15. LeSean McCoy: Has averaged 24.1 PPR Fantasy points following a bye over the last three years, but … his Fantasy production has dipped by at least 24 percent from the previous post-bye week in consecutive seasons.
    16. Golden Tate: He has been targeted with 32.6 percent of Stafford’s passes over the last four weeks, accounting for 60 percent of the WR targets over that stretch.
    17. Marques Colston: Do the Vikings have a number one receiver? If you subtract them from the equation, Green Bay has allowed the opponent’s top receiver to either lead the team in receiving yards or score a touchdown in every game this season.
    18. Randall Cobb: Over the last season-plus, the Packers are averaging 32.3 points when Cobb finds the end zone.
    19. Vincent Jackson: He has three multi-touchdown performances over the last two seasons, but two have come following the bye week. He has seen an increase in targets despite a decline in snap percentage over the last two games.
    20. Giovani Bernard: Subtract three big gains and he is averaging just 3.7 yards per touch. The Ravens have allowed RB1s to total just 85 yards and zero touchdowns over the last two weeks.
    21. Sammy Watkins: During their six-game losing streak, opposing WR1s have been targeted with 32.5 percent of passes against the Jets.
    22. Justin Forsett: He recorded 65.7 percent of the running back carries last week and owns 88.5 percent of the running back receptions this season.
    23. Julian Edelman: On pace to experience an increase in both aDOT and catch percentage for the second consecutive season.
    24. Emmanuel Sanders: Opposing WR1s have led their team in Fantasy receiving yards just twice this season against the Chargers. Prior to the recent Thomas explosion, in which Sanders is averaging 60 yards per game, the ex-Steeler was averaging 111 yards.
    25. Alshon Jeffery: Went catch-less on his final 38 routes in Week 7.
    26. Jerick McKinnon: Only Atlanta is giving up more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns than the Bucs this season. The Vikings rank in the Top 10 in both rushing attempts and yards per carry.
    27. Pierre Garcon: He has scored in consecutive games for the third time in two seasons. A touchdown against the Cowboys was part of the other two streaks.
    28. Ronnie Hillman: Only four running backs have more carries and at least five catches over the last three weeks. Thursday night’s are a bad spot for running backs.
    29. Ahmad Bradshaw: The Colts lead the NFL in time of possession and plays by a wide margin. In fact, they are on offense for 20 percent more plays per game this year than a season ago.
    30. Steve Smith Sr.: Cincinnati has graded out as the worst pass rush in the NFL thus far. Smith is averaging 44 yards per 20-plus yard reception and owns the fourth best catch rate on deep balls.
    31. Kelvin Benjamin: The Legion of Boom, even when right, does not scare me, but the fact that KB was targeted with 30.2 percent of Newton’s passes in Weeks 2-5 and just 18.2 percent in Weeks 6-7 does.
    32. Jeremy Maclin: Nick Foles is completing 66 percent of his passes thrown to players not named Maclin, but is completing just 45 percent of passes to his top target.
    33. Lamar Miller: He is averaging a very solid 4.8 yards per carry in the last eight games that his team has one. Miami is favored by 5-6 points this weekend in Jacksonville.
    34. Eric Decker: He has recorded double-digit PPR point totals in all five games in which he has been on the field for at least 60 percent of the offensive snaps.
    35. T.Y. Hilton: The average top receiver against the Steelers over the last six weeks has stood 6’3.5” and tipped the scales at 232.2 pounds. Hilton is 5’9” and weighs 178 pounds. Size matters.
    36. Wes Welker: He is averaging 21.6 PPR points on short rest over the last three seasons.
    37. Michael Floyd: In his last five games with Carson Palmer under center, Floyd has recorded a catch worth at least 4.4 Fantasy points.
    38. Mike Wallace: Back to Josh Gordon and his spectacular 2013: he scored in eight of 14 games. Wallace has found paydirt in nine of his last 12 games.
    39. Joique Bell: He should get the full workload in London this week with Reggie Bush’s ankle ailing, something Fantasy owners should find comfort in as he has scored in all but one of his career games with more than 15 touches.
    40. Roddy White: Since November 2013, he has been targeted at least 10 times or scored a touchdown in six of the seven games in which the Falcons scored more than 20 points. In contrast, he has reached one of those plateaus in just two of seven games that they failed to eclipse the 20 point plateau. Too bad the Lions have allowed opponents to score more than 20 points just twice this season.
    41. Ben Tate: He has handled 63.6 percent of the running back carries since his Week 5 return. The Raiders have allowed a rushing touchdown in nine straight games in which the opponent did not have a Hall of Fame bound quarterback. Brian Hoyer … not a Hall of Fame quarterback.
    42. DeAndre Hopkins: No defense has allowed a higher completion percentage and more passing first downs than the Titans. Hopkins has caught 76 percent of the passes thrown his way with 61 percent of them moving the chains.
    43. Eddie Lacy: He joins Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray as the only running backs with four rushing touchdowns and 250 rushing yards over the last four weeks.
    44. Doug Martin: His snap percentage has risen in each week that he has played, and the Vikings are allowing 5.8 yards per carry to their last three opponents that have had their full complement of running backs healthy.
    45. Allen Robinson: He has played at least 90 percent of the offensive snaps in three straight games. Still worried about Marquis Lee cutting into his workload? Lee had more carries than receptions in Week 7.
    46. Shane Vereen: Has never had back-to-back games with at least two receptions and a receiving touchdown. He has also never rushed for more than 40 yards in consecutive weeks.
    47. Jermaine Kearse: Davante Adams and Brandon Tate (two unproven receivers who stand 6’1”) have found the end zone against the Panthers in consecutive weeks.
    48. Justin Hunter: The Texans have allowed the second most completions of at least 40 yards.
    49. Percy Harvin: Geno Smith ranks dead last in deep ball accuracy (19 percent) among the 38 quarterbacks with at least seven attempts of 20-plus yards down the field. Good thing Harvin owns a microscopic 3.4 aDOT.
    50. Torrey Smith: We told ya that good things come in twos for Smith. He has now topped 14 PPR points in consecutive games five times: the four follow up performances have seen him total seven catches for 131 yards.
    51. Tre Mason: Seattle and San Francisco are giving up 3.4 yards per carry to non-Tre Mason running backs. If Mason gashes the Chiefs at the same increased rate, he will average 7.5 yards per carry.
    52. Keenan Allen: Philip Rivers owns the third best QB Rating (113.0) in the league, but his 79.9 rating when throwing to Allen ranks behind 33 other QB/WR tandems.
    53. Cecil Shorts: The ‘Fins have allowed a receiver to haul in at least six passes in three straight games.
    54. Larry Fitzgerald: He’s registered 38 percent of his 2014 Fantasy points in one game against a bad Redskins defense.
    55. Mohamed Sanu: The Ravens own the top pass rush in the league and A.J. Green may return. Andy Dalton ranked as the 10th most efficient passer when under pressure in 2012, 14th in 2013, and is 19th thus far this season.
    56. Andre Johnson: Over the last three seasons, he is averaging 51.6 yards and 10.6 yards per catch against Tennessee (95.3 and 14.1 against the other 30 teams).
    57. Kendall Wright: His routes run numbers have been trending in the wrong direction all season long and he was asked to block on a season-high 41.5 percent of his snaps last week.
    58. DeSean Jackson: He has not scored against Dallas since 2010, and managed just six catches for 49 yards against the division rival last season.
    59. James Jones: He is a legitimate touchdown threat, but with 76.7 percent of his receptions this year coming on his own half of the field, that talent is a bit overstated.
    60. Darren McFadden: He is averaging 22.2 percent more yards per rush on carries 11-20 than carries 1-10.

    Tight Ends (1-8)Tight Ends (9-16)
    Julius ThomasDelanie Walker
    Rob GronkowskiJordan Reed
    Martellus BennettCoby Fleener
    Zach ErtzJason Witten
    Greg OlsenTravis Kelce
    Jimmy GrahamHeath Miller
    Jordan CameronJared Cook
    Antonio GatesCharles Clay

    1. Julius Thomas: Remember the last time he went consecutive games without a touchdown? You’re lying. It was in 2012, before we knew who he was.
    2. Rob Gronkowski: His yardage total has dipped in back-to-back game; he has never experienced a three game stretch of decreasing totals.
    3. Martellus Bennett: Scott Chandler, Jace Amaro, and Jeff Cumberland have combined to catch 12 balls for 177 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks against the Pats. Bennett is considerably better and has more touchdowns than all three of them combined this season.
    4. Zach Ertz: 11.1 percent of pass attempts are going for 20 yard completions against the Cardinals this season. Ertz has 50 percent more 20-plus yard receptions than any other tight end.
    5. Greg Olsen: He has scored at least 13 PPR points in seven of his last eight games.
    6. Jimmy Graham: It has been three years since the last time he has failed to score in three consecutive games (he hasn’t scored in two straight weeks).
    7. Jordan Cameron: Only Gates has a higher aDOT among tight ends over the last three weeks.
    8. Antonio Gates: He has turned seven of his 11 catches on the scoring side of midfield into touchdowns.
    9. Delanie Walker: He failed to record a 20-plus yard reception for the first time in six weeks. Jake Locker is expected to start this week and Walker’s target rate has been greater with him under center.
    10. Jordan Reed: He played 91 percent more snaps than Niles Paul, but his lack of depth in targets allowed Paul to record more yards. The talent is there, the upside is not.
    11. Coby Fleener: His snap percentage increased for a third straight week and the Colts are running more plays than anyone.
    12. Jason Witten: He has been targeted a total of 17 times over the last four games. He had three separate two game stretches of at least 17 targets last season.
    13. Travis Kelce: He caught eight passes for 93 yards against the Patriots on National TV. In the three games surrounding that “breakout” performance, Kelce has caught nine passes for 84 yards.
    14. Heath Miller: He has run 94 routes over the past three weeks and been targeted with eight passes.
    15. Jared Cook: He has caught 84.4 percent of passes thrown his way in wins since last year and 52.1 percent in losses. I don’t think the Rams win this game.
    16. Charles Clay: He has averaged 15.9 yards following a game with a touchdown for his career.

    D/ST Top 10 for Week 8

    D/ST
    Dolphins @ JAX
    Chiefs vs STL
    Jets vs BUF
    Bills @ NYJ
    Broncos vs SD
    Seahawks @ CAR
    Ravens @ CIN
    Texans @ TEN
    Browns vs OAK
    Cowboys vs WSH

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