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Super Bowl LIII Betting: Player Props

Super Bowl LIII Betting: Player Props
Davis Mattek January 31, 2019 1:58PM EDT

Player Prop Bets For Super Bowl LIII

There is no better way to sweat Super Bowl LIII than to bet player props on your sportsbook of choice. Using Player Props offered by MyBookie.AG (where you can get a deposit bonus by using promo code FNTSY), you can follow along while watching the Super Bowl and make some money while doing so. In general, we find that it is easier to pick profitably on player props than in any other segment of sports betting. These are five available props on MyBookie.AG that I will personally be betting for the Super Bowl LIII.

Tom Brady Pass Completions OVER 27.5

This was one of the first lines that I went to look at when props were released. The posted total for this game is 56 points, which indicates that Las Vegas expects both teams to not only score in waves, but also to throw the ball. The Rams and Patriots are both better at passing than at running (as almost all NFL teams are). Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is at their best when they are using James White and Julian Edelman in the short passing game, similar to what happened in the Los Angeles Chargers Divisional Round matchup. Tom Brady had 34 completions in the Chargers game and 30 completions in the Chiefs game. The most likely game script is that the Patriots throw 40 or more times and that should lead to Brady hitting the over comfortably.

James White Receiving Yards OVER 52.5

This line is a slight value per the DailyRoto NFL player props betting tool. The tools available on DailyRoto have White projected for 56 receiving yards but even if the line was higher, I would likely to take the over. White is the most important player for the Patriots in the playoffs because he allows Tom Brady to not be sacked. Brady is at his best when getting the ball out quickly and the best way to do that is to have quick developing routes from White. White had 17 targets in the Divisional Round against the Chargers, six targets against the Chiefs and owns the Super Bowl record for most receptions by a running back. If the Patriots trail in any segment of this game, White should obliterate this prop.

Todd Gurley Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 102.5

If you happen to believe that C.J. Anderson is going to be a major part of the Rams game plan, this prop is not for you. Most projection systems actually suggest that this is going to be an UNDER. However, I find it exceedingly unlikely that Anderson will play a major role in this game. Josh Reynolds has been such a poor replacement for Cooper Kupp that it seems more likely that the Rams will play more 12 personnel in this game, which means having two tight ends on the field instead of a third wide receiver. As such, for their offense to pass the ball effectively, Gurley will have to be a threat out of the backfield. If Gurley is getting a majority of the carries (because Anderson can’t be on the field for passing scenarios) and is also a primary pass-catching weapon, the over on this prop should likely hit.

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards UNDER 45.5

When Cooper Kupp initially got injured, some football writers thought that it would be a massive blow to the Rams offense. I was not one of those people. Kupp is a very good player but I didn’t think that he was the key that made the Rams offense work. However, the Rams passing offense has been significantly worse with Kupp off and Reynolds on. Jared Goff’s numbers while Under Pressure have been substantially worse with Kupp injured, dropping to 40.2 Passer Rating down from 81.2. I believe we will see more Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett in the Super Bowl and if Reynolds is not on the field as often, he won’t have a chance to generate the yards needed to hit this prop.

C.J. Anderson Rushing yards UNDER 49.5

Running backs, in general, do not matter much. Most of what we ascribe to running back success comes down to scheme, play-calling and offensive line. I have no doubt that if Anderson was given 20 carries, he would blow away this rushing prop. However, I think that Todd Gurley is going to get the better share if not a massive majority, of the Rams backfield work in the Super Bowl. He is definitely a better pass-catcher than Anderson. That should mean that he will see most of the Los Angeles Rams running back snaps during the Super Bowl. Anderson won’t hit his rushing prop if he isn’t on the field!

 

 

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