Week Eight NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
There comes a time in every touts life where she or he gives out a pick that could be right against one publicly available line but wrong against another one. Last week, one of our biggest tickets was the Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 and also +3. The Chargers pushed against the +3 but outright lost to the +2.5. Given that we here at RotoExperts are going to do things straight up and not make an attempt to fudge numbers or convince the readers that we are something that we aren’t, I am going to count the Chargers game as a LOSS on my record. Still, a positive NFL sports betting week and we look to make another one this week.
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek Record: 12-9 ATS
Week Seven NFL Sports Betting Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
This is going to be the only game all year where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense is going to be an asset instead of outright harming their chances for winning games. The Titans are going to try and #EstablishIt, regardless of the defensive front that they are facing. The Bucs have not even allowed 400 total rushing yards yet this year and they have played SaQuon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey (twice). Think about how stupid you would have to be to pound the rock into the defensive front that ranks first overall in run defense DVOA by over 10%. Then realize that the Titans are going to do that anyway.
In losses against Buffalo, Denver, and Jacksonville, the team stayed committed to Derrick Henry with at least 15 rush attempts for him and his 3.7 yards per carry. On the other hand, the Titans pass defense ranks as just league average and Jameis Winston is averaging 8.1 yards per passing attempt. Think whatever you want about Jameis Winston, turnovers and all, but he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at generating positive plays. We should constantly be trying to gamble on teams that call games optimally and that is what the Bucs are going to do against a team that does the opposite.
Arizona Cardinals +10
Detriot Lions game? Cover.
Baltimore Ravens game? Cover.
Bengals game? Not only cover but outright WIN.
Atlanta Falcons game? Hilariously they were underdogs and of course, won outright.
New York Giants game? Road underdogs and they won outright.
Now, are the New Orleans Saints much better than the Lions, Ravens, Falcons and Giants put together? Probably. The Saints are 15th in expected points on defense this year and eight in DVOA. They are a legit good defensive unit and they will also likely be getting Drew Brees back this week. Even under Teddy Bridgewater, the Saints have accumulated the seventh-best ranking in offensive DVOA this year. This is all a long way of saying that the Saints are very good, and they are better than the Cardinals. Are they 10 points better than the Cardinals? I think not. Even while running extremely below expectation in the touchdown department, the Cardinals have scored the 14th most points in the league. In fact, they have scored only three points less than the Saints.
My continued belief is that Kyler Murray is already one of the ten best quarterbacks in the NFL and Vegas lines have yet to account for that as a possibility. As long as that is true, we are going to keep wagering on Kyler and the Cardinals.
Seattle Seahawks -6.5
This line opened at three points and has now moved to -7 at some books. I would bet it all the way up to -7 but likely not past that point (I would still add Seattle to any moneyline or moneyline parlay). This is one of the few spots we will get this year where one team is just completely outmatched but still within a touchdown on the spread. The Falcons are coming off of a blowout loss to the mediocre Rams, whereas the Seahawks ran quite bad to lose the league MVP, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
The Falcons have been blown out by the Vikings, Titans, Texans, and Rams while not covering against the Colts or Cardinals. Their only impressive effort this year came against the Eagles, who have a truly putrid secondary. They rank 30th in defensive DVOA and Seattle ranks third in offensive DVOA. There is also a real chance that Matt Ryan is not able to play through this whole game with his ankle injury and Matt Schaub comes in. If Schaub were just straight up declared the starter, this line would move to Seattle -9 or worse. Betting on teams on the way up (Seattle) against teams who are heading to the tank (Atlanta) is one of my favorite betting strategies.
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