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Week Five NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Week Five NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Davis Mattek October 4, 2019 3:54PM EDT

Week Five NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Another not-so-hot week as Kansas City won but didn’t cover, Kellen Moore played against the Saints like it was a high school football game and Lamar Jackson finally had a bad game. The reality of making a public picks record is sometimes you are going to run extremely cold (or just be on the wrong side of games all at once) but never the less, we are back at it this week with another set of NFL sports betting action.

We moved to 5-7 against the spread on the year which is, of course, not pleasing to anyone but just a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.

Davis Mattek Record: 5-7 ATS

Week Four NFL Sports Betting Picks

New England Patriots -15

 

Eventually, there is going to be a bad team that covers against the Patriots. They will get the pick-six off of Stidham in the fourth quarter, get multiple lucky bounces or maybe the Patriots will just decide to use their worst possible offensive game plan and not even try to score on offense as they did against the Detroit Lions last year.

That team is not going to be a Washington team that doesn’t even know who their starting QB is. As of Friday afternoon, Jay Gruden confirmed that Colt McCoy is going to be the starting quarterback for Washington. McCoy is actually probably worse for the -15 side because he is less likely to be turnover prone and puts it all on the New England offense.

However, New England owns the best defense in football and is still able to be right about league-average on offense with 5.4 yards per play. They are better coached, have more talent and are playing against one of the worst and most fraudulent teams in the league. I couldn’t imagine not having the “square” side here with the Patriots; that is to say, taking the massive favorite with the points is almost always the public side but that is not really how I choose to wager in the first place. Patriots it is!

Oakland Raiders +5

Yes, the same Oakland Raiders with a 1980’s football meme as the head coach, Derek Carr as the quarterback and lackluster pass defense is our pick. This line just felt odd to me as the Raiders are a five-point underdog to Chase Daniel. You have to be an excruciatingly bad team to be eight points worse than the Chase-Daniel lead Chicago Bears and I am not convinced that the Raiders are that bad.

The Raiders are dead league average in yards per play on offense at 5.7, league average in yards per pass play and better than league average in yards per run play. Their defense certainly is not “good” but they have allowed the same net adjusted yards per attempt as the New Orleans Saints who are considered a fine defensive unit. The Raiders are one of the worst defenses in Pro Football Reference’s expected points and that really shouldn’t be all that surprising.

However, against Chase Daniel, I am not really concerned about the Raiders’ defense too much. Daniel has a career 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt and has only started FOUR games in his nine-year career. The most points one of his offenses scored in those starts was 27 points.

I shouldn’t be here to cape for Derek Carr but he has been just about what we expected from him this year. His yards per pass attempt is the same as Josh Allen and Carson Wentz and a full 1.4 yards better than Mitch Trubisky. I am assuming this line is made off the strength of the Bears defense and we do not bet on the strength of defenses.

 

Los Angeles Chargers -6

 

Joe Flacco’s yards per pass attempt this year is almost a full yard better per attempt than his average over the last five years. That means that in four consecutive losses (albeit two close losses), Flacco has actually been better than his mean expectation. The Denver defense has been itself either as they rank 23rd in the NFL in expected points  on the defensive side of the ball. They have only 15 quarterback hits through four weeks as well.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have great numbers despite offensive injuries. They are fifth in the NFL in yards per play on offense and might have Mike Williams back this week which gets them to 4/5th’s of their projected starting offense before the year. Despite all the injuries and a horrible loss to the Lions, the Chargers have been the fifth most effective passing game in the NFL.

One team has a good-enough defense, one team has a not-close-to-good-enough QB. The number is between 6 and 6.5 depending on your book and 6 is obviously the better number but that it is fine at 6.5 as well. The Chargers are simply a much better team and Denver will be playing without their homefield advantage.

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