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Week Four NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Week Four NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Davis Mattek September 27, 2019 11:30AM EDT

Week Four NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

What a brutal week for us in NFL Sports Betting last week as Arizona, Atlanta and Seattle were all clearly the square side of their individual bets. As I cautioned, of course, our goal is to be at 56-57% by years end and we are roughly on pace to get there. One of the most interesting developments to keep your eye on as we continue to wager on these games is what is happening with Miami. They actually looked a little bit like a real football team in Week Three and if that continues, some of these mega spreads will end up looking a little foolish.

We moved to 5-4 against the spread on the year which if of course, not pleasing to anyone but just a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.

Davis Mattek Record: 5-4 ATS

Week Four NFL Sports Betting Picks

Kansas City -6.5

In all of Patrick Mahomes’ career starts, the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points. Look it up, I promise that it is true. This season, the Chiefs have scored 14 touchdowns in three games. The fact that the Lions offense has been good this season (Matt Stafford is fifth in expected points added per dropback) is actually a positive signal for the Chiefs covering this spread. Why is that you might ask? Instead of running the clock down for most of the second half, the Chiefs will actually be incentivized to throw the ball in the fourth quarter for the first time this year (if the Lions are even hanging around at that point).

The Chiefs have ran 61 total plays in the fourth quarter through three games and have run the ball 31 times compared to only 20 pass attempts. Simply put, Kansas City really has not been tested at all and if Detriot is the team to put them to that test, our mean expectation for Mahomes would be a 30+ point team performance which would have them clear their implied team total and should, perversely, make it easier for them to cover. Other NFL teams just do not have the ability to keep up with Kansas City’s offensive firepower and we are going to keep betting them ATS against bad-to-mediocre teams.

Baltimore -7 

 

The Ravens are absolutely blowing the competition away in terms of expected points created. As a team, they lead the NFL with 167.44 of Pro Football Reference’s Expected Points on offense. They are fifth in the NFL in net adjusted yards per attempt via the pass, and they are fourth in the NFL in expected points added via the rush. Before even delving into their weakened defense, the Lamar Jackson-lead Ravens offense is one of the five best offenses in football and should be treated as such.

Despite the massive preseason hype, the Browns offense is horrible. Freddie Kitchens seems to have lost his way as a play-caller and he is not letting Todd Monken take over those duties. As a result, the Browns are one of six teams that has NEGATIVE expected points added on offense with the Bears, Buccaneers, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Miami Dolphins. If you have been reading this column for the last few weeks, you’d know that one of my main criteria for picking games (especially if the spread is over three) is: which team is going to score points and call plays more optimally? The answer to that question for this game is clearly Baltimore.

Until Cleveland shows some signs of life against a good team, I am going to feel comfortable picking against them especially when the Ravens might be the third or fourth-best team in the NFL.

Dallas -2.5

 

Who could have predicted that in a battle between Dallas and New Orleans, Dallas would have the clear advantage in quarterback talent and play-calling? Things have changed drastically for New Orleans without Drew Brees. By expected points, their offense has been about half as good as Dallas’ has been through three games and they have less expected points on offense than the Oakland Raiders. None of this is to say that the Saints are #bad or that playing in the Superdome isn’t difficult but Dallas is just a better team.

The Cowboys are second to only the Chiefs in yards per play on offense, are fifth in the NFL in total points scored, fourth in the NFL in yards per carry on offense and have only two turnovers on the year. Under Kellen Moore, Dallas has become of one of the best teams in the NFL and is a championship contender. Betting multiple road favorites (Kansas City and Dallas) is sort of precarious position because even if you think that they are clearly the right side, history says that home dogs are the sharper side. Of course, that being said, the three favorites we have here are three of the five best teams in the NFL and wagering on them (in a general sense) is a smart thing to do.

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