Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
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  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
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  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
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  • The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?
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  • Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Chris Godwin's Stock Rising, Eagles Alshon Jeffrey's Falling
    July 16, 2019
    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019

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  • Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019
    July 15, 2019
    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019

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Week One NFL Sports Betting Lines

Week One NFL Sports Betting Lines
Davis Mattek May 15, 2019 1:34PM EDT

A Glance At Week One NFL Sports Betting Lines

It is never to early to start trying to find an edge for NFL Sports Betting lines. Most sportsbooks have released their Week One NFL Sports Betting lines and using SportsGrid’s head statisticians’ model, we are going to take a look and see if there are any profitable Week One NFL sports betting lines.

Week One NFL Sports Betting Model Picks

Week One NFL Sports Betting Lines 1

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Tennessee Titans +5 @ Cleveland Browns

This line is fairly clearly based off of public positive sentiment towards the Cleveland Browns. They traded for Odell Beckham, Baker Mayfield is popular on social media and in general, the public is now Pro-Browns. However, the reality is that these teams are likely not five points off in true talent level. The Browns gained 5.8 yards per play last season and the Titans gained 5.3 while using Blaine Gabbert more than any NFL team should. The average Titans drive produced slightly more points than the average Browns drive. While Marcus Mariota is healthy, these teams project close enough that all three betting models point in favor of the Titans being able to cover five points on the road in Cleveland.

Arizona Cardinals PK @ Detroit Lions

Of all of these bets, this is the one I am most likely to tie my money into while the game is months away. The Detriot Lions are the exact opposite of an inspiring team. Detroit gave up the ninth most net adjusted yards per pass attempt on defense last season and we know that the Arizona Cardinals are going to be throwing early and often. The additions of Kyler Murray, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson is going to give the Arizona offense a much different dynamic then they had last season. No team ran more in between the tackles runs than the Cardinals last season despite how bad their team was. That is a stat that will not repeat in 2019 as the Cardinals run 90% of their offense out of the shotgun. I’m quite confident that the model is right in this selection in taking the Cardinals as a PK at home.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Indianapolis Colts

Much like the Browns, the Colts have become a public darling over the course of the offseason. The job that Chris Ballard has done with the Colts roster is rather admirable but the Los Angeles Chargers are even better. The Chargers are tied for the second-best record by Las Vegas over/unders, gained the third most yards per play of any team in the NFL in 2018 and scored the sixth most points. The Colts added Devin Funchess and rookie Parris Campbell to their WR corp but overall, their roster is just marginally better than the one that got smoked by the Chiefs in the playoffs last year. The betting model has LAC -3 as the pick in all three facets and I agree.

MATTEK PICK: Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Oakland Raiders

This is where the good stuff happens! The model has the Raiders as the correct pick as a favorite against Denver on the road in Mile High but I am not buying it. The Broncos are historically successful at home to begin the year thanks to their altitude advantage. Per Justis Mosqueda, Since the AFL-NFL merger the Denver Broncos are 49-8-2 at home in games during the first two weeks of the season. The massive home advantage the Broncos generate due to training at altitude and playing their home games at altitude is almost immeasurable. Improved roster or not, this is a very tough spot for the Raiders and I am going the opposite way of the model.

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Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Tight End
    May 28, 2019
    Three Impending Fantasy Football Breakout Seasons

    These Three Fantasy Football Breakout Players Are Ready To Shine It is no secret that every year in fantasy football, players emerge who were just barely on the periphery of fantasy football relevance during fantasy football draft season. Last year at this time, you did not know who Phillip Lindsay was, James White was just…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

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  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
    May 30, 2019
    Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back

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  • Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended
    July 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended

    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended For a plethora of reasons, it seems that Tyreek Hill will not in fact be suspended by the Kansas City Chiefs or the NFL itself. Adam Schefter and other league sources have reported that both the team and league decided there was not enough conclusive evidence in Hill’s…

  • The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?
    July 18, 2019
    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?

    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver? As the passing revolution has continued, the value of the absolute top wide receiver in fantasy football has increased. It used to be that the top running back was the prized jewel of fantasy football but now multiple wide receivers have justified…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade premium
    July 17, 2019
    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp

    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp We have taken a look at dynasty buys here on RotoExperts a few times over the offseason but now, it is game time. Dynasty fantasy football is about to get real. Training camp, injuries, preseason games, roster movement, all of the good stuff is going to…

  • Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Chris Godwin's Stock Rising, Eagles Alshon Jeffrey's Falling
    July 16, 2019
    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Last season, the NFL saw a total of  17,671 pass attempts or 34.5 for each team per game. In 2017, that number was 34.2. The average team scored 21.7 points per game in 2017, while the average team scored 23.3 points per game in…

  • Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019
    July 15, 2019
    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019

    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019 Every single year, fantasy football leagues are swung by rookie running backs. Saquon Barkley was drafted as a superstar but Phillip Lindsay was a UDFA in 2018. Nick Chubb exploded in the second half of the season after Carlos Hyde was traded. Even Sony Michel returned value after…