Week Seven NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Another great NFL Sports Betting week for the RotoExperts/SportsGrid crew as we move to 10-8 on the year against the spread. After a few brutal weeks, it has been nice to put up a 5-1 record the last two with us leaning on the gift from gambling gods: Kyler Murray. Why Las Vegas has chosen to disrespect our diminutive god, I will never know but I am happy to keep getting plus numbers with Arizona at home or on the road. Home teams have been doing so poorly this year against the spread that it has just made it a little easier for me to follow the teams that I like when they happen to be playing on the road.
We moved to 10-8 against the spread on the year which is a step in the right direction but as always, let this article serve as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek Record: 10-8 ATS
Week Seven NFL Sports Betting Picks
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 or +3 (Depending on book)
So let me get this straight. The Tennessee Titans scored zero points last week, benched their quarterback mid-game (who continued scoring no points) and they are, FAVORED? I don’t care if Cardale Jones was the quarterback for the always disappointing Chargers, this is not a spot to be betting against them. The Chargers have been massive disappointments this season, sitting in the mid-’20s in the NFL in expected points, total team DVOA, defensive DVOA. Basically every important stat that a team can rank in, the Chargers aren’t very good in.
I am willing to forgive them this miserable six-game sample because I have a decade long sample of Phillip Rivers being better than Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill’s career adjusted yards per attempt is 6.7 over 2,900 passing attempts. Philip Rivers averages an entire more yards per adjusted attempt. That is really the sell of the bet right there. Even if the Titans have a better defense or a great, conservative game plan, it really should not matter when you see the obvious deficiency that they have at the quarterback position.
Detriot Lions game? Cover.
Baltimore Ravens game? Cover.
Bengals game? Not only cover but outright WIN.
Atlanta Falcons game? Hilariously they were underdogs and of course, won outright.
While Las Vegas (or maybe just the world of sports gamblers) is not quite hip to Kyler Murray yet, those of us who have been wagering on the Cardinals know what he is showing. Arizona’s defense has been the second-worst in the league up to this point and if we had not just seen Daniel Jones fold like a bad poker hand against the Patriots, I may not be rushing to the betting window with my Cardinals slip but the fact is that the same error-prone Jones from Duke still exists.
While Jones flashed against the Bucs and Washington to start his NFL career, he is now looking like an actual rookie. And that is okay! It doesn’t mean he is trash or the franchise is ruined, it simply means that when he is playing against another good-to-great quarterback, he probably should not be favored by the entire three points. It is worth noting the Giants defense, outside of a stout showing against Washington and a random touchdown against the Patriots has been trounced by Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and even Buffalo. The old school NFL bettors would HATE taking Arizona here but we are continuing our trend of taking the best quarterback.
The Bengals, my friends, are not good. They are 0-6, ranked 29th in adjusted yards per pass attempt allowed, dead last in the NFL in yards per rush allowed and the average drive of another team against them nets 2.29 points. Without A.J Green and John Ross, Andy Dalton is having the worst season of his career with 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Seriously, look it up, Dalton is having the worst season of his rollercoaster career. Part of that can be blamed on Zac Taylor, part of it can be blamed on Dalton and on the front office for sticking him with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, is having a renaissance. They are top 10 in the NFL in yards per play and 12th in the NFL in yards per pass play. That is absolutely massive for a team that struggled on offense and had a defensive identity. What is impressive about the Jaguars record is that they have been able to hold their own with their defense not playing particularly well, ranking 24th in the NFL in expected points. With Gardner and the Jaguars, we have the better quarterback, likely the better coach/offensive coordinator duo and do not have to spend our Sunday rooting for Andy Dalton.
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