Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
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  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

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  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
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  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

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  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
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  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
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  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

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  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
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  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

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  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
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Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Davis Mattek December 20, 2019 5:39PM EST

Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

We have now locked in a winning record for the season (and of course we will still have the betting content pumping out during the NFL playoffs and SuperBowl) which feels pretty good considering that these posts were running with a negative record at one point. A few of the biggest things I have learned this season about NFL sports betting is that home-field advantage is probably the most overrated factor in betting and that good quarterback can almost always overcome bad everything else though horrible coaching can wipe out amazing team performances(looking at you Jason Garrett).

As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.

Davis Mattek NFL Sports Betting Record: 28-18 ATS

Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting Picks

Houston Texans -3

We all love Jameis here at RotoExperts. We think that he has a chance to throw for the over 950 passing yards needed to break the NFL single-season passing yardage record and that he deserves a big contract from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the season. However, without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller and throwing a majority of his passes to tight ends OJ Howard and Cameron Brate and against a Houston team that is playing every game as an elimination game, this is not the spot to wager on Jameis. We have done well with both of these teams this year so I feel pretty confident about being on the right side.

The Buccaneers defense is getting credit about improved defensive performance but they have done well against David “Bling Blang” Blough, worst game of Nick Foles career, Matt Ryan, and the hungover New Orleans Saints. Now, the Texans are prone to their total no shows (Drew Lock says hello) and if this was 3.5 or more, this game wouldn’t be one of the three best picks but right at three, the Texans are clearly the sharp side.

New Orleans Saints -2.5

Last week, we went against Ryan Tannehill with the Houston Texans and now we are going against him with Drew Brees and the red-hot New Orleans Saints. While Tannehill still leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt, we continue to believe that his performance will regress closer to his career averages or at the very least, league averages. Meanwhile, the Saints allow only 5.3 yards per play on defense, have scored the fifth-most points in the NFL and are fourth in the NFL in yards per play. This is a team that was still holding pace atop the NFC with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.

It is a fun story for a team to change their fates this dramatically with a new QB at the helm but the Saints are a touchdown better than the Titans in my amateur analysis. The Saints are second in the NFL in total team DVOA and the Titans are 10th in total team DVOA. That sort of gap is pretty reflective of how I view the two teams. The Saints are an elite NFL team, the Titans are merely above-average.

Dallas Cowboys PK (Bet to -2)

Dak Prescott is not listed with an injury designation for Sunday’s game despite the fact that he is clearly dealing with a shoulder injury. The absolute only reason you could ever have to wager on the Eagles here is if you thought Cooper Rush would somehow be a part of the Cowboy’s game plan. The Eagles have a legendarily bad secondary and are without DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard, Nelson Agholor and Lane Johnson (their starting left tackle) and have to find a way to beat a team that is better than then them man for man.

Dallas leads the NFL in yards per play on offense while the Eagles are TWENTY FREAKIN THIRD. Carson Wentz is getting a little unfairly piled on this year, but c’mon. A pick ’em line? The Cowboys defense also allows only the seventh-most yards per play on defense while the Eagles allow the 17th most yards per play. From any sort of numeric perspective, this is just not close. Dallas is better; place your bets accordingly.

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Popular Features

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

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  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

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  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

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  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…