Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
We have now locked in a winning record for the season (and of course we will still have the betting content pumping out during the NFL playoffs and SuperBowl) which feels pretty good considering that these posts were running with a negative record at one point. A few of the biggest things I have learned this season about NFL sports betting is that home-field advantage is probably the most overrated factor in betting and that good quarterback can almost always overcome bad everything else though horrible coaching can wipe out amazing team performances(looking at you Jason Garrett).
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek NFL Sports Betting Record: 28-18 ATS
Week Sixteen NFL Sports Betting Picks
Houston Texans -3
We all love Jameis here at RotoExperts. We think that he has a chance to throw for the over 950 passing yards needed to break the NFL single-season passing yardage record and that he deserves a big contract from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the season. However, without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller and throwing a majority of his passes to tight ends OJ Howard and Cameron Brate and against a Houston team that is playing every game as an elimination game, this is not the spot to wager on Jameis. We have done well with both of these teams this year so I feel pretty confident about being on the right side.
The Buccaneers defense is getting credit about improved defensive performance but they have done well against David “Bling Blang” Blough, worst game of Nick Foles career, Matt Ryan, and the hungover New Orleans Saints. Now, the Texans are prone to their total no shows (Drew Lock says hello) and if this was 3.5 or more, this game wouldn’t be one of the three best picks but right at three, the Texans are clearly the sharp side.
New Orleans Saints -2.5
Last week, we went against Ryan Tannehill with the Houston Texans and now we are going against him with Drew Brees and the red-hot New Orleans Saints. While Tannehill still leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt, we continue to believe that his performance will regress closer to his career averages or at the very least, league averages. Meanwhile, the Saints allow only 5.3 yards per play on defense, have scored the fifth-most points in the NFL and are fourth in the NFL in yards per play. This is a team that was still holding pace atop the NFC with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
It is a fun story for a team to change their fates this dramatically with a new QB at the helm but the Saints are a touchdown better than the Titans in my amateur analysis. The Saints are second in the NFL in total team DVOA and the Titans are 10th in total team DVOA. That sort of gap is pretty reflective of how I view the two teams. The Saints are an elite NFL team, the Titans are merely above-average.
Dallas Cowboys PK (Bet to -2)
Dak Prescott is not listed with an injury designation for Sunday’s game despite the fact that he is clearly dealing with a shoulder injury. The absolute only reason you could ever have to wager on the Eagles here is if you thought Cooper Rush would somehow be a part of the Cowboy’s game plan. The Eagles have a legendarily bad secondary and are without DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard, Nelson Agholor and Lane Johnson (their starting left tackle) and have to find a way to beat a team that is better than then them man for man.
Dallas leads the NFL in yards per play on offense while the Eagles are TWENTY FREAKIN THIRD. Carson Wentz is getting a little unfairly piled on this year, but c’mon. A pick ’em line? The Cowboys defense also allows only the seventh-most yards per play on defense while the Eagles allow the 17th most yards per play. From any sort of numeric perspective, this is just not close. Dallas is better; place your bets accordingly.
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