Week Ten NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Alright; I have to eat this one. Folks, I suggested betting money on the New York Jets. They were not competitive and they got dunked on by the worst football team that the NFL has ever seen. The New York Jets are going to preserve the Detroit Lions place in NFL history as the only winless team because they lost to the Miami Dolphins. Just an absurdly tough NFL sports betting scene for yours truly. We are back to even on the year after quite a bad two week stretch, though my place in the Fantasy Pros Sports Betting Accuracy challenge remains respectable and we continue to grind through the NFL sports betting season!
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek Record: 14-14 ATS
Week Ten NFL Sports Betting Picks
Kansas City Chiefs -6
Ryan Tannehill’s career adjusted yards per attempt: 6.8
Patrick Mahomes’ career adjusted yards per attempt: 9.6
If this is not the very first number that leaps out to you this week, then I am not sure how NFL sports betting is your hobby or passion. We live for spots where teams are undervalued because they are on the road or injuries have hampered their performance. The Chiefs will be playing Tennessee this week with a healthy Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and have re-installed their best running back with Damien Williams playing 72% of the snaps last week and scoring a 91-yard touchdown.
The Titans, meanwhile, will be without Corey Davis and rank 25th in the NFL in yards per play. The Chiefs, having played their backup quarterback for 2.5 games, are second in the NFL in yards per play behind only the Dallas Cowboys. Think about what betting on the Titans here would mean. You want to wager on a team playing 1980’s football over Patrick Mahomes throwing deep balls in his triumphant return to the field? This is Kansas City and I would bet it up to -7. If you were one of the people who got this line where it opened (-3), count your lucky stars.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
I do not really buy into home/road splits that much except for when you come up with a real reason why they might exist. Jared Goff has very real home/road splits, in my mind. He averages 8.02 yards per pass attempt while at home for his career and 7.29 yards per pass attempt while away from the confines of LA. This is true over 1,500 passing attempts. Now, we will probably never get enough of a sample to say for sure if this is mathematically true that Goff is worse on the road than at home but we do know there is a potential real reason for it: it is harder for coaches and quarterback to communicate via headset on the road. This is a dominant “fan theory” as to why Goff might struggle more on the road than at home.
Away from that logic though, the Rams are just not that much better of a team than the Steelers even with the disadvantage Pittsburgh has at quarterback. The Rams average 5.8 yards per play on offense; the Steelers average 5.1 yards per play. The Steelers number is bad, for sure, but it is not as wide of a gulf as it would have been last season for these teams. Pittsburgh also has the fourth-best defense in the NFL in terms of expected points whereas the Rams are closer to league average or neutral in expected points on defense. What that tells me is that this game is likely to be more run-heavy than not and that sort of a gross, ground-based game would favor a team that wants to play that way as opposed to being forced to play that way.
If Russell Wilson is actually the MVP, if Russell Wilson’s true talent level is actually a yard per attempt over nine and if we buy the conceit that elite offense will beat elite defense, then we cannot like the 49ers side of this bet. The Seahawks, despite entering the season planning on playing football like Cavemen, are eighth in the NFL in yards per play. The 49ers, with their diverse and intimidating run game are 12th in the NFL in yards per play. The 49ers defense has been terrifying but they proved last Thursday against Arizona the problem with having a great defense: it is not that difficult to get outplayed by fast, skilled athletes. The Seahawks are basically the evolutionary version of the Cardinals team that gave them trouble on defense last Thursday.
So maybe the 49ers are a better team and Jimmy G is ready to lead a Superbowl-favorite 49ers team and be the last undefeated team in the NFL; I doubt it though. The Seahawks have a shaky defense but a QB and an offense that I would take 10 times out of 10 vs the 49ers personnel on offense. Therefore, we are taking the 6.5 points and wagering on Seattle.
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