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Week Thirteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Week Thirteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Davis Mattek November 30, 2019 3:08PM EDT

Week Thirteen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

As we have discussed in this space, it is important to not get too high or too low when involved in NFL Sports Betting. The whole process is designed to make you feel invincible while a 57% win rate against the sharpest lines in the world would make you part of the 1%. We are having a pretty nice year here at RotoExperts and are 6-0 the last two weeks but I was also 2-4 the two weeks before that. We head into Week Thirteen NFL Sports Betting with a lot of confidence but always remember to wager intelligently! Let’s get after it.

As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.

Davis Mattek NFL Sports Betting Record: 22-15 ATS

Week Thirteen NFL Sports Betting Picks

Baltimore Ravens -5.5

This is partly my own fault for traveling during Thanksgiving and not getting these lines out to you sooner and therefore, the Ravens line is higher than it would have been earlier in the week. 5.5 points is a lot to lay against a talented San Francisco 49ers team that is tied for the best record in the NFL. It is not lost on my that the 49ers lone loss was to Russell Wilson and that the Arizona Cardinals tested them both times. Even elite defenses struggle against mobile quarterbacks and no one is more mobile than Lamar Jackson.

For all of their defensive might (and they are mighty), the 49ers remain just an okay offensive team. They are 8th in the NFL in yards per play but closer to the Cleveland Browns than the Ravens. If we buy the recent results of the Ravens defense (and I do), then these are essentially even defensive teams with one team having a massive advantage on offense. 5.5 is a lot, but we are again putting our chips on Lamar Jackson who has rewarded us handsomely all year long.

New York Jets -3

I cannot believe it has come to this but the -3 line with New York is, in my opinion, a little bit of a gift. The Bengals have only been within three in two games this year and in none since Week Five. Andy Dalton is worth 2-2.5 points more than Ryan Finley who could be the worst quarterback to throw a pass in the NFL this season but the Jets have a better quarterback. After the New England game, Sam Darnold has turned into a real NFL QB. He has been over 7.7 YPA in each of his last three games and the Jets have scored 34 points exactly in their last three games. Will they crack 30 against the Bengals? Obviously, that is at least a +250 scenario but just seeing sparks of life on offense for them is enough to get me to lay the three.

The Jets have the third-best yards per play defense in the NFL, though a big chunk of that does come from a useless run defense. If Zac Taylor and the Bengals run their super-pass heavy offensive game plan from the early weeks of the season, this bet is in trouble. The last few weeks under Ryan Finley, however, the team has been one of the run-heavier situational teams in the NFL. They are winless, they are hopeless and on the descent while the Jets are on the way up.

Miami Dolphins +10

The sharps are always on the Eagles, the way that the sharps are always on the Chargers. The difference is that in this instance, I do not feel bad for going against the sharp money. The Eagles just are not a good pro football team. They are 20th in the NFL in yards per play, 18th in points scored, and Carson Wentz is 30th (!!!!) in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. That is worse than Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Gardner Minshew, and Marcus Mariota. Do you think that Wentz, even with Alshon back, should be laying ten points on the ROAD? Not for me.

The Dolphins suck, there are not great numbers to point here to them being the pick. They are dead last in yards per play and second-worst in yards per play allowed. The Browns and Bills, consecutively, dunked on them. Essentially, this is not a wager for the faint of heart. I am just interested in betting that Carson Wentz is incapable of covering 10 points on the road, regardless of the professional opponent.

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