Week Twelve NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Last week was one of my best weeks of the year in NFL Sports Betting as the Chiefs, Ravens and Patriots all took care of business. It is rare that all of your favorite bets and games play out exactly how they were supposed to, so we should always take a moment to savor it when it does go perfectly. We are on pace to beat the vig (by a very shallow margin) in NFL sports betting this year but not by very much. Even having a good season is a reminder of just how hard it is to be very good at this activity. Let’s hope to keep the good streak going in Week Twelve!
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek Record: 19-15 ATS
Week Eleven NFL Sports Betting Picks
Dallas Cowboys +6.5
It would be a betrayal of my principles to not bet on the Dallas Cowboys here. They lead the league in yards per play on offense. The Patriots are 18th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Dak Prescott is first in the NFL in yards per pass attempt and leads all players in expected points added. The Patriots offense is likely to be without Mohammed Sanu and possibly Phillip Dorsett against Dallas. The biggest difference, to me, between the teams, is in their offensive skill levels. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb has a legit claim to being the best group of wide receivers in the NFL. Dallas also has Tony Pollard and Blake Jarwin as young, efficient players. The Patriots have Rex Burkhead and James White with the veteran craftiness of Julian Edelman but the real edge New England has is coaching.
I asked my twitter followers this week who would be favored if the Cowboys and Patriots switched coaches. NOT ONE PERSON responded and said New England would be favored. This, to me, is a tacit admission of what we all know. The Cowboys roster has more talent and athleticism than the Patriots roster, even if the Patriots defense is better. Six and a half points is a lot of points for a team as good as Dallas to be laying and I am going to take them.
Baltimore Ravens -3 (or -3.5 depending on book)
This line, much like our next line to discuss, doesn’t make much sense. The Ravens have a better coaching staff, quarterback, overall offense, and special teams than the Los Angeles Rams. You could argue the Rams defense is better but I would argue 1) it doesn’t matter that much with the gulf between quality in offenses and 2) the Ravens defense over the last month of the season has been an entirely different unit than the one that started the year.
The Ravens have scored the most points in the NFL, they have beaten the Patriots (without a sweat), and they are third in the NFL in yards per play. They have no significant injuries on either side of the ball. This line should be six points, at least. The Rams are 13th in the NFL in yards per play, just behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have scored fewer points than the Detriot Lions. Jared Goff is 18th amongst qualified quarterbacks in net adjusted yards per attempt. This is not a quality football team and they are going to be tasked with trying to stop the NFL MVP. I fully understand that there is nothing more public than wagering on the Ravens right now but they are only giving three or 3.5 points to a bottom-half of the NFL team.
Seattle Seahawks +1.5
The Philadelphia Eagles, well, they just aren’t any good. Philly has the 17th ranked pass offense by DVOA and averages only 5.2 yards per offensive play. The good offenses the Eagles have faced have gotten: 38 (Vikings), 37 (Cowboys), 27 (Detriot and Green Bay) and 24 (Atlanta). The Patriots only scored 17 points but there is a dirty little secret about the Patriots offense: it isn’t very good either. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have been a very efficient passing offense in 2019. Russell Wilson is fourth in the NFL in net adjusted yards per attempt and the Seahawks are seventh in the NFL in yards per play.
The Seahawks gain more yards per play total on offense, their quarterback averages more than a full yard over the Eagles quarterback in yards per attempt, both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA and only one of these teams has Russell Wilson. Sure, everyone is betting on the Seahawks in this game, even that annoying co-worker who asks you who like on Fanduel this week. That doesn’t mean it isn’t the right bet. There is definitely something to the Eagles needing to regress and not being as horrible as they have been this year but the Seahawks are at least four to five points better than them.
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