Popular Features

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…

  • Wild Card Weekend NFL Sports Betting
    January 3, 2020
    Davis Mattek’s NFL Sports Betting Picks For Wildcard Weekend

    Wild Card Weekend NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Ricky Sanders did a great job running through the SportsGrid model picks earlier in the week with his looks at the best bets for each of the four wild card games but there was no way after a successful regular season of NFL sports betting that I…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
    January 21, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin For the first time in recent memory, there may not be a running back taken in the first round of the NFL draft. While Jonathan Taylor put together a mesmerizing career at the University of Wisconsin, he is perhaps not the style of SaQuon Barkley-style player that…

Week Two NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

Week Two NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread
Davis Mattek September 13, 2019 3:19PM EST

Week Two NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

With the fantasy football draft season winding down and the first official game under the books, it is time to turn our attention to something almost better: NFL sports betting and gambling. Wagering on games and player props every weekend is a huge part of what we are interested in at SportsGrid. Fantasy football will always be fun but betting on games is always sustainable even if your first two draft picks got injured in the first game of the season.

Week Two is one of the best weeks for NFL sports betting players who know that emotions aren’t the best way to gamble on sports.

Davis Mattek Record: 2-1 ATS

Week Two NFL Sports Betting Picks

Dallas Cowboys -5 over Washington

When something you believe to be true in the preseason comes to fruition in the first game of the season, it is hard to not feel your priors getting confirmed. We spent all offseason on RX extolling the virtues of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offensive system and we saw it play out in the best possible way against New York. Dak had the best game of his life with 405 passing yards on only 32 attempts, four touchdowns and a perfect passer rating.

The Cowboys increased their usage of pre-snap motion and play-action to give Dak more time in the pocket and easier throws (though it didn’t stop him from making the best pass of his career to a streaking Amari Cooper down the sideline). The supposed strength of the Washington football team was their defense but after giving up 33 points to the Eagles and allowing DeSean Jackson to burn their entire secondary not once, but twice, they just look like a run of the mill bad team.

Even if the Washington defense was good, this line screams Dallas. The Cowboys might come close to leading the NFL in yards per play (they are fourth after one week) and the market is over-adjusting to Washington looking passable on offense last week. This same Washington team, minus Case Keenum, finished as the fifth-worst offense in football last year. They were horrible at passing the ball and relied on running the ancient Adrian Peterson to keep opposing offenses off the field.

This spread might actually move even further towards the Cowboys but the only reason it is under a full touchdown as of the time of this writing is because Case Keenum had one good game against the Dallas secondary. That is significantly less likely to happen against Dallas, who boasts maybe the best cornerback in the NFL and league-average safety play. I am comfortable betting a road favorite in this spot.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 At Oakland Raiders

A theme of the column this year is going to be pretty simple: using our opinions of elite NFL quarterbacks in all aspects of NFL sports betting. Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks of the last 20 years, maybe even THE best. We had KC -3.5 over Jacksonville last week as one of our three picks and there was legitimately no sweat in that cover. Even if Nick Foles had not injured his clavicle in that game, it is unlikely that KC would have ever been in a spot not to cover.

Kansas City when 10-7-1 against the spread last year and one of the losses were to New England in an overtime game where the ball never found its’ way into Patrick Mahomes hand at the end of the game. When an elite offensive team is favored by only one touchdown (and this 7.5 at some books), it is just too easy for them to rack up an absurd amount of points. I never want to be on the side of a ticket against someone like the Patriots, Chiefs or Rams when the other side is a legitimately bad team.

In fact, the Chiefs actually averaged more yards per play (both rushing and passing) on the road than they did at home in Arrowhead in 2018. Essentially, this bet is about not caring where the game is being played. If the Ravens and Patriots are going to be double-digit favorites against much worse teams, the Chiefs should be considered in the same echelon of team because they are even better at putting points on the board. I will likely be on KC most weeks this year when they face anemic offenses because of their ability to overwhelm opponents and score 40+ points

Buffalo Bills -1.5 At New York Giants

Similar to how we are trying to get money down on teams we think are better than the market (Dallas), I am also trying to wager against teams that are WORSE than the market thinks. The Giants are, by my estimation, the second-worst football team in the NFL. Only the Miami Dolphins are truly worse than the Giants. The Giants were never close to competive against the Cowboys last week and since 2011, Eli Manning averages 1.2 interceptions to 1.5 touchdowns per game against top-1o passing defenses.

The Bills are better than even a normal top 10 pass defense. They were the second-best passing defense by net adjusted yards per attempt allowed last season and looked every bit that part against Sam Darnold and the Jets in their first game. To make matters better, the offense seems to be entering into the 21st century as the Bills started their 2019 season with 17 (!!) straight dropbacks to start the Jets game. We know that Josh Allen is a high variance quarterback but I am okay embracing that volatility especially against a team as bad and non-disciplined as the Giants.

My best prognostication is that Giants spreads get wider and wider as the year progresses. The team is incredibly banged up at wide receiver with Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate both missing this game. Eli will be throwing to Evan Engram, Barkley and maybe not even Cody Latimer who missed practice this week as well. Worth noting, from a narrative angle, that the Bills did just beat a different New York team at home so it is not as if we are in some parallel universe where Buffalo should never be favored on the road.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo AMICO at checkout. Learn More HERE.

Popular Features

  • NFL Conference Championships NFL SPORTS BETTING premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

  • Week 17 NFL Sports Betting
    December 27, 2019
    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread

    Week Seventeen NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Our first legit tie of the season came in last week as the Houston Texans were not able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than three points. We also suffered what was probably the worst loss of the season with Dallas PK losing by…

  • Wild Card Weekend NFL Sports Betting
    January 3, 2020
    Davis Mattek’s NFL Sports Betting Picks For Wildcard Weekend

    Wild Card Weekend NFL Sports Betting: Picks Against The Spread Ricky Sanders did a great job running through the SportsGrid model picks earlier in the week with his looks at the best bets for each of the four wild card games but there was no way after a successful regular season of NFL sports betting that I…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
    January 21, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin For the first time in recent memory, there may not be a running back taken in the first round of the NFL draft. While Jonathan Taylor put together a mesmerizing career at the University of Wisconsin, he is perhaps not the style of SaQuon Barkley-style player that…